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May 23, 2012

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Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Paging Truth Police: No! Windows Phone and Nokia Lumia are NOT outselling iPhone in China. Utter BS story spread by Microsoft propaganda machine:

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Vito

Tomi, I was once a Nokia application developer live in China, and there is none of my friend or family member using Windows phone. But most of them use Android phones or iPhone, which I am not interested in. I used to be a Nokia fan, but Nokia really dispointed me when he decided to hug the Window Phone and to be only an OEM.
I finally make up my mind to give up Nokia and now I am looking for the BB10 phone by RIM, because the performance, the security, and the diversity of the App Dev Environment(Native, Qt/QML, Html, Java) for the QNX system are great advantages compared with the Android, WP, even the iOS.
The market won't wait for RIM, just hope BB10 to come as ASAP!

Kenny

Tomi, the fact that Bada outsells WP by 2 to 1 is very telling of the consumer rejection of WP. Bada may be best described as a sunset OS. It has a small app store of a few thousand apps which can be considered useful and no Whatsapp, Skype or Foursquare which are considered essential nowadays. There is a lack of developer support and OS updates by Samsung are few and far between. Even worse its future is in doubt as Samsung is reportedly going to drop Bada in favour of Tizen.

Given the setbacks how did Bada outsell WP? The answer is that when compare OS to OS, Bada easily vanquishes WP7.5. Bada is like a lightweight copy of Android with multiple homescreens, widgets, themes, lots of customization options and none of the restrictions of WP7.5 like no bluetooth file transfer, tied to Zune and no USB mode. Consumers know which is a better OS.

Lumia can only be sold with deep discounts and expensive freebies. In U.K. Lumia is being sold with a free expensive Nokia Purity headphone to push sales. WP isn't going to save Nokia, no way.

So Vatar

For what it's worth: I looked up Stat Counter's stats for Mobile OS in China:
http://gs.statcounter.com/#mobile_os-CN-monthly-201201-201205

Nice graph, and I took out the OS share numbers for iOS and WP

First number iOS, second number WP:
1/2012: 12.6%, 0.19%
2/2012: 12.8%, 0.22%
3/2012: 15.8%, 0.29%
4/2012: 16.7%, 0.30%
5/2012: 15.8%, 0.38%

These numbers, if correct, are indicative of installed base.
I can see a couple of interesting things:

1) WP share is a rounding error compared to iOS share.
2) There is no spike in WP's numbers that would indicate a huge sales success in April or May.
3) iOS grew from Jan to May 3.2 percentage points, WP 0.19 percentage points.

But of course Microsoft can also see it that way:

4) iOS grew from Jan to May by 25%, while WP's growth was a staggering 100%!!!
5) While iOS lost share from April to May ( - 5%), WP grew more than 26%!!!

See what I can do with numbers! 4) and 5) show clearly that WP outperforms iOS in terms of percentage growth! (If we just forget for a moment that WP's installed base was irrelevant in January and stays irrelevant in May.)

What else to add? Ah ja, Android came in with a share of 38.6% in May. This is pretty much 100 times bigger than WP.

Nuff said. WP is and stays a fail, even in China.

Kenny

Here's confirmation that Lumia phones cannot be upgraded to Apollo (WP8)
http://www.cnet.com.au/would-you-buy-a-phone-if-you-couldnt-update-it-339338353.htm

It's going to be pretty rough for Nokia in Q3 and Q4 when sales taper off.

jedi

wow..a lot of people cant sleep over the succes of WP..lol..grow up people.

Juri

I think Tomi just appears to fight WP BS you can find in media.

@CN "WP is having momentum", could you please clarify where except Finland WP is having momentum?

xizzhu

Well, as a Chinese living in Finland, all I can tell is, I have several relatives / friends (in China) using iPhone, but none using WP7 phones nor WM6 phones.

JD!

Why I see WP as burning platform instead of Symbian?

*sigh* the whole company burned!

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Vito, Kenny, So, jedi, Juri, xizzhu and JD

Vito - I hear you and I am now in a similar place. Ever since my first mobile phone in 1995, every single day since, there has been a Nokia branded phone in at least one of my pockets (while having many other brands, Ericsson, Motorola, Siemens, RIM, Samsung, etc as my second phone over the years). Note, this was from before I was headhunted by Nokia to join them in Finland, so I have been a Nokia loyal user for years before becoming a Nokia employee even. And now in 2012 that will end, I will end my association with Nokia because I won't take those rubbish Windows Phone handsets and Nokia doesn't offer me good devices (to buy) on MeeGo or Symbian. I would have wanted the N950 but they won't even sell it (currently my last Nokia phone is the E7, because of its great QWERTY keyboard. My other phone - my favorite in fact - is the Samsung Galaxy Beam, the one with the pico projector).

Kenny - thanks, and very good points. Also today comes news from the USA, that Lumia 900 has seen its SECOND set of price cuts. Two price cuts in two months? The Lumia 900 is not setting the USA market on fire, if they have to cut prices twice in two months haha..

So - thank you so much for posting the numbers. And yes, obviously, great points and we totally agree.. :-)

Kenny (second) - on the confirmation by CNet - I did see the story, but it is still their understanding, it has not been officially said by Nokia nor Microsoft. I think its highly likely that CNet is correct, but this is one area we don't have certainty yet.

jedi - welcome Microsoft Troll.. I'll leave your comment, I sleep just fine thanks. Why don't you come back, say six months or a year from now and lets talk about your 'success' of Windows Phone haha..

Juri - yep. I take the stats part of this industry as my personal responsibility. Its not just Microsoft, any time we have blatantly wrong stats reported in the industry, I put on my cape and rush in, as the Stats Police (note it is one content category on this blog). I am seen by many statisticians and forecasters as the grand old man of mobile industry forecasting haha, having been both the most accurate forecaster, and having built several of the most important forecasting models for our industry.. So I'd do this for any company, with such blatant obvious lies reported as truth.

xizzhu - thanks! I appreciate the input and so do our readers.

JD - Yes, me too. He traded two strong unburning platforms (Symbian and MeeGo) for the one most badly on fire (Windows Phone) which only caught even more on fire since Nokia selected it

Thank you all, please keep the comments coming

Tomi Ahonen :-)

AI

How's Gartner's prediction of Windows Phone 7 overtaking iOS by 2015? Is it still on schedule? ;-)

Tomi T Ahonen

ROTFL !!!

Hi Al, that is hilarious. Yes. Gartner's silly projection yes, looking all the more foolish as the days and weeks go by. No. Windows Phone had some very misguided forecasts made last year by some reputable analyst houses, suggesting even over 20% market shares - I think the biggest I saw was 28% market share. Since then, Microsoft's Windows Phone market share fell from 2% to 1%. Then Nokia came in, today Microsoft Windows Phone is massively up to.. 1.6% market share. Nokia will see its smartphone market share down to 3% by year-end, that includes Windows Phone and Symbian and MeeGo, combined. The other Windows Phone partners are either totally bailing out of WP - like Sony, LG and Dell so far - or are shifting their business away from WP - like Samsung and HTC. The non-Nokia makers in Q1 only accounted for 10% of total Windows Phone sales, so its pretty meaningless already now, and for example Samsung doesn't bother to sell Windows Phone in Europe at all - a market where Samsung is both the biggest phone maker and smartphone maker. So if Windows Phone partners push Windows Phone to 4% by year-end, that would be nearly a miracle haha..

So yeah, Gartner's projection is looking supremely silly by now, Apple's iPhone had 24% now in Q1. Apple is exactly 15 times bigger in sales today than total Windows Phone sales by all of their partners combined. One confirmed sales boycott targeting Nokia brand sales, dumbphones and smartphones - globally (reported in multiple press stories, confirmed by Nokia CEO to shareholders). A second sales boycott targeting all Microsoft Windows based smartphones (reported in multiple press stories, confirmed separately by Nokia CEO to shareholders). The intersection point of those two global sales boycotts is.. Nokia Lumia series on Windows Phone. It is selling so badly, we just heard today that Nokia's 'flagship' Lumia 900 on that AT&T network where they have been promising 'above expectation' sales - have now issued today a second price cut in only two months! That is a sign of a very poorly selling handset, to need two price cuts in two months from launch. No. This will never catch the iPhone.

Thanks for a great laugh, Al

Tomi Ahonen :-)

RobDK

Hi Tomi

Good article!

What is your knowledge of Nokias pension fund? There have been a couple of unsubstantiated stories regarding the fact that it is underfunded in relation to known commitments, and that this large liability means that Nokia is more or less bankrupt NOW.

AsianInvestor

Example of media BS:
http://www.zdnet.com/blog/cell-phones/consumer-reports-recommends-nokia-lumia-900-for-dads-and-grads/7646

"We saw last week that Windows Phone is outselling the Apple iPhone in China, but much of that is due to a specific wireless system used by China Mobile (largest mobile phone company in the world by customer base) that Apple doesn’t support."

So much BS in just one sentence. How much M$ pays those folks?!

"Windows Phone has shown slow, but steady growth since it launched in 2010 and is doing quite well in countries such as Germany and Norway."

Oh please!!! Here's indication of sales in Norway:
http://gs.statcounter.com/?chart_type=line&statType_hidden=mobile_os&region=Europe&region_hidden=#mobile_os-NO-monthly-201104-201204

BS like this is reason we need guys like Tomi.

Kenny

Tomi, on Lumia's upgradability to WP8, neither Microsoft or Nokia are going to confirm anything if it is indeed true that there is no upgrade path but we can draw a negative inference from their silence.

Nokia is going to be hit hard...very hard in Q3 and Q4 when the truth cannot be hidden anymore and consumers hold off purchase of WP7.5 phones.

If Q1 is bad for Nokia, Q2 will be worse and Q3 will be savage as sales of Lumia dries up with Symbian crashing to baseline and MeeGo artificially throttled. As for Q4, Nokia's survival will be on the line.

Well, Elop, you reap what you sow.

Luca

Where are the PR guys now? I hope to see one, some nice word fight would be going on... I hope your work will help nokia correct the path it is walking onto. By the way i would be interested in knowing more about who actually controls the,company and how the mismanagement of the company is percieved in finland. How are the finnish reacting towards the guys who are leading the company towards "certain death"?
Thank to all who help better understing.
Bye
Luca

Christian Cawley

While I am a fan and user of WP7, I appreciate the clarity of this article. However Tomi you seem so keen on "calling out" the M$ machine that you've overlooked an error of your own:

"Microsoft's Windows Phone market share fell from 2% to 1%"

No it didn't. Their mobile platform share fell. And they have/had two platforms, so any shrinkage is largely due to the discarding of Windows Mobile. Windows Phone started with nothing and has continued to grow thanks to the proliferation of handsets. Yes, it's small growth and I'm not contesting any of your other very valid points, but please if you're going to evangelize honesty and accuracy from M$/Nokia then you need to be accurate too :)

Juri

@ Luca

Nokia's top 10 shareholders include Finland's 5 pension funds, so quite a few people in Finland must be also wondering about this "mismanagement" aka Elop effect, because they are losing billions due to crashing stock price.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Rob, Asian, Kenny, Luca, Christian and Juri

Rob - sorry, I don't really know about that. This site is not a Nokia site haha, even though recently there have been several articles about the company. This is not even a site about handset makers or even a mobile only site. I deal with all matters in the digital space, with a focus area on mobile. But I have specifically decided to exclude any corporate financial analysis, as I don't want the Wall Street trolls to come here to argue pointless daily valuations of stock prices. So, sorry, Rob, I honestly don't know and haven't taken any trouble to try to find out. It would be of interest to potential buyers of Nokia - again a topic not central to my readers who are more interested in which platforms to develop digital services to, and thus they are interested will Nokia survive and on what platforms haha..

Asian - thank you for the kind words and yes, I saw that quote and thought exactly the same. Also thanks for the link!

Kenny - very true and honestly, if I was Nokia (or Microsoft) communication director, I'd do the same on that point. Rather not say, and keep them guessing, than admit that this is yet another problem. But, in the environment where Nokia is seen as no longer trustworthy and very suspect of lies and deception - this is going to hurt them more when the truth comes out..

Luca - haha, thanks. I have been removing some trolls but yeah, I am not exactly looking forward to debates. I'd much rather Nokia come and own up to their error and apologise and we can move on with that silly fight haha. But you make a good point, no official Nokiadudes here attempting to stand by this silly lie.

Christian - good point, I totally understand what you say. Now, part of what you talk about is true, but inspite of that, so was my statement. So yes, Microsoft did the cowardly dead of ending the separation of Windows Mobile and Windows Phone performance. When did they do this, last year, when the Windows Phone sales didn't grow. When Windows Phone launched, Windows Mobile had 3% market share. That has declined to 0.3% today. Yes, there has been a decline, and yes, some of that decline transferred to Windows Phone sales. But I said Windows Phone market share declined from 2% in Q4 of 2010 to 1% in Q4 of 2011. That ALSO happened. Yes. Windows Phone started with a bang - mainly as Microsoft was flooding the world with freebie trial devices. They did hit 2% market share in Q4 of 2010. That then fell steadily all last year, even as there was a migration from Windows Mobile to Windows Phone. So inspite of your point - which is correct - so was my statistic that I quoted. Yes, Windows Phone still today, has not managed to climb back to the level Microsoft had 18 months ago when Windows Phone was introduced. At that time, the combined Windows Phone and Windows Mobile market share was 4%.

So I understand what you say, and it is true, but my quoted statistic took that point into consideration, and the problem is truly this bad - inspite of that matter. No wonder Steve Ballmer himself said in September of 2011 that Windows Phone sales were "below expectation" (and he replaced his head of Windows Phone unit).

Juri - thanks, yes. And strangely inspite of that, they don't act. Bizarre.

Thank you all for the comments, keep the discussion going

Tomi Ahonen :-)

vladkr

The old "we're number one trick"...

they did it already few weeks ago claiming Windows Phone outsells iOS in Russia (read in MTS stores in fact, not in actual Russia), forgetting to mention that iPhone 4s is at least 50% more expensive than a Lumia 800 and 2.5x more expensive than a Lumia 710.

Anyway, Nokia is starving right now, so like a junky, they will do anything they can, moral or not, to get a little money to pay their piece of bread/their shoot.

I wouldn't be surprised if soon they'll claim that Windows Phone is the mobile OS #1 in the world (read of OSes which names start with "W"... Woohoo! they passed Windows Mobile!)

It's just like North Korean news that claimed North Korea won world Soccer championship, showing the only goal against Brazil.

It's sad because it's pathetic... they'll end up dying of starvation, or stupidity overdose.

vladkr

If you have a N9, you can collaborate to a project aiming to locate N9s in the world:

http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF&msa=0&msid=200575306309039860448.0004c061f019b930e8621

Maybe it's not precise yet, but still interesting

Mike

You are a hack. Your apparent bias against anything Microsoft and Nokia is appalling. Either you are short those companies' stock or completely brainwashed by Apple (or both!). Yes, Elop should not have thrown away Symbian in the manner he did, but they can't go back at this point. So, they have one choice, move forward and continue innovating.

Urabon

I don't know about you but how the Windows Phone looks and works makes me feel myself stupid, old and my life like a losing game. It's like here is this $500 piece of crap, please be an obediant moron of our company and buy one.

I need to shake that feeling off by looking at the models from Samsung, Apple and HTC. They look great, they FEEL great!

Nokia, YOUR TIME IS UP!

vladkr

Tomi, can you confirm the Nokia World in Helsinki is cancelled this year ?

NoNameRequired

@vladkr - that depends on your perspective, I guess. See http://conversations.nokia.com/2012/05/23/nokia-world-gets-new-format-and-date/ for details.

vladkr

@NoNameRequired:

Thanks,

So I suppose Nokia has nothing to show at the Nokia World (WP8 with pureview not ready?), so they'll organize a cocktail-party with carriers and retailers with no journalist allowed just to "meet friends"

Cool!

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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