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« Mobile Services Beyond Messaging? Excellent TNS Global Survey Reveals Tons | Main | Understanding OTT - Why Carriers dislike BBM, hate iMessage and fear Skype (updated) »

May 09, 2012

Comments

cycnus

@Keilanemi

For the guy like tomi
Any publication is a good publication
LOL

Peter

@tomi,
can you also look into NSN issues ?
why NSN lost $700M (nokia part,$1.4B) with in one quarter which is bigger than nokia device/service . Right before Elop was brought inot nokia by Jorma, NSN made a small profit.

It looks now very obvious that Steven Elop was brought into nokia to dismantle it. It even doesn't server MS's purpose. The only explanation is Jorma Ollila has been working for Wall Street Short Seller.

Jorma Ollila is no Steve Jobs.

Tomi, I hope you can wake up, your Finnish hero/boss has actually been a crony agent of Wall Street Bankers.

Peter

ejvictor

Lets not forget that Skype also eats into the holly cow - MMS. Real war happening -look at Spain. Telefonica launches its own VOIP app Tu Me.... TeliaSonera is taking the bold step of charging subscribers for using voice over IP (VoIP) services, after net income dropped 18% year-on-year in the first quarter.

The firm (TeliaSonera)plans to start charging for VoIP in Spain by mid-May, and will levy the same charge on new subscribers in its home market – Sweden – from the summer. President and chief Lars Nyberg says the change is necessary to address changing customer behavior that has seen a drop in voice and messaging revenue, and is a natural evolution of its current strategies on data pricing.

So Vatar

I understand why Skype is mentioned so prominently in this blog post, but I would warn to see WP's and Nokia's failure to blame primarily on Skype.

Skype is just one thing that makes WP / Lumia / Nokia unattractive to customers (carriers and consumers). If WP were flawless Skype alone would not bring it down. But as WP has so many flaws (being a MS product is in my view one of the flaws, but this is my personal view and other people might see this differently) WP is really attractive only for a few customers.

If I want to be locked down, I take the Apple (is cool, much better integrated, and backed by a company with so much cash they will for sure stick around for many years to come).
If I don't like Apple but want many apps, I go Android. Android evolves quite nicely, and if I wanna tinker I can do almost everything I can think of.

So, what space does MS / WP occupy? More locked down but less cool? Ahh, yes, if I do not see enough tiles in my bathroom I can always look at a WP.

Poor Nokia, in addition to all the problems you have you now also need to help sell Microsoft's Skype to the carriers that don't want it.

Stephen Reed

@Tomi

I did not actually understand how much - and why - the carriers/operators hate Skype until reading this very excellent post.

I do recall that Skype devastated international voice carrier profits years ago because the tariffs were so high and Skype was free, given an internet connection between the two parties.

Now Microsoft wants to integrate Skype with the desktop in the same manner as say ... its Internet Explorer web browser. That means that every laptop/ultrabook shipping with Windows 8 - hundreds of millions - should be able to use the built-in camera, microphone and speakers to communicate, for no additional charge, given a wifi connection between the two parties.

Every time someone uses Skype, from a desktop, laptop, or Win 8 tablet - they are denying the carrier/operator the profit that they would otherwise obtain from a voice call.

Skype also has instant messaging that does not use SMS.

----------

But what about Apple's Messages app? Between Messages users on any Apple device, the iMessage protocol uses data (i.e. like XMPP) not SMS. Apple positions Messages as a walled garden that precludes integration with other instant messaging services - encouraging Apple users to get their friends to buy Apple devices. I suppose that carriers/operators do not like Apple because of Messages!

But Apple does not have huge desktop/laptop sales compared to Microsoft, and Apple Messages does not have the long history compared to Skype. Thus I suppose that carrier/operator hate for Messages compared to Skype is simply a matter of degree.

Peter

Tomi, you are currently attributing Elop's statement as an admission to everything what you have to say about the matter. He only said that "operators do not like Skype". That does not have anything to do about your speculations of Skype influence between operator-Nokia relations.

So Vatar

There is currently a fight going on on Twitter between Tomi and John Pope, apparently Director of Communications of Nokia. Funny stuff if you ask me.

It shows a couple of things:
- Nokia starts to take notice of Tomi and this Blog
- They do not like what is written by Tomi and say he misquotes.

You can saw what you want about Tomi and his (lack of) objectivity, but he is an influencer and his writings about Skype hit a nerve at Nokia HQ.

DEKRA

I needed clean pants after reading this, I just soiled myself laughing.

This post wil no doubt get deleted anyway, but what the heck I'll just give it a try. Eventhough you have some facts and figures going Tomi, you are still making assumptions about what is happening.

Especially this paragraph; Nokia's top USA sales guy left a long term successful Nokia sales job 'for personal reasons' after this Skype boycott...
Nothing but speculation on your end. It seems this blog is similar to Fox News in the US. Just spin all the info in such a way that is seems to contribute to your point.

Right now, WP has no integration of Skype. It has the worst app of all platforms even. iOS has facetime, a feature that works on 30 to 50% of phones in the US alone. Yet Sprint has done a billion dollar investment into getting that VoIP phone on their network. Am I missing something here this time?

And what to think about your lovechild Symbian? That has been able to do VoIP for ages. One of the features you have even been championing ever since the Lumia line came out.

And regarding Elop saying there was a boycott; it was only a real issue for those carriers with a landline business. Implying there is an allout boycott going is just falsified information. Maybe you need to be convicted just liek you suggest for Elop ;)

Mikko Martikainen

@Tomi

Rather good writeup, but one thing bothered me: you bashed Elop for not telling the whole truth, yet you quote him and leave out a very prominent part of what he actually said: "voice over IP like Skype is coming no matter what." And I don't think anyone can honestly argue that VoIP is not coming, and the carriers can only drag their feet and slow down the adoption, nothing more.

@Stephen Reed

Apple has the advantage that iPhone user tend to have higher ARPU than other phone users, and combined with fewer returns and less churn, it makes the iPhone more attractive. However, as iMessage grows and the operators really feel the effect, things might change.

Tomi T Ahonen

To all in this thread

I have been attacked without warning by John S Pope the Director of Communications at Nokia HQ (he's an Elop crony, who joined at the same time). This is after I agreed to the truce with his underlings about not continuing the Twitter debate before. I think this is pretty nasty of Nokia's Director of Communications. And obviously he is not a man of honor. Anyway, if you are interested, the battle is now fully on at Twitter...

I am demanding he show exactly where I misquoted Elop or else issue me public apology. And I have already called him a chicken shit for being such a coward to make baseless general accusations and refusing to be specific

Its a shame, I was fully ok to end the Twitter debate we had previously, I did not re-open this. And I was hoping to spend more time with you who post comments here.. Sorry. Gotta rush back to TW now..

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Peter

The "Attack" is happening because of the point I was trying to make in my previous comment. It's not about misquoting. And you can't expect people from Nokia being pissed if you make a blog post like this one.

Spawn

@Stephan Reed
That plus Apple does consumer-products only. They do not offer enterprise, office, business solutions like Microsoft. Microsofts cash-cows are Windows, including server, and office. They span consumer (end-user), business, enterprise and governments.
Skpe in the Microsoft is nowhere near a Jabner, google talk, msn messaging application. Its integral part of the whole workflow from the consumers desktop, over the windows server, the office suite, sharepoint, the cloud, data-centers, xbox and phones. Imagine what kind of amazing things can be done that way. Things you cannot do today with regular phones, with special hard- and software, without expensive service-agreements and not for completely free, zero money. Surely at the end its not really free. You will need to buy per-user licenses, support, hatd- and software, services but from Microsoft and from Microsoft alone.

That brings me to the next topic: It is Microsoft that profits and Microsoft alone. Microsoft expands its market, extends the lockin, improves influence anf makes more money. How does Nokia profit?
Remember that Microsoft keeps full control over Windows, Skype and Winfows Phone. Nokia is just one of many Microsoft-partners.Nokia does not have that much left that is from huge interest for Microsoft once Windows Phone succeeded (or not). Latest then Nokia has a real problem cause they do not have anything from value left nobody else could do mucj cheaper. When Nokia doest die soon cause Windows Pjone fails it will die later cause Windows Phone succeeded. All that is so suicidal strategy.z

vladkr

What's amazing is that they're still obsessed with this Skype story.

I'm reading this blog since I tried (and finally succeeded in) to buy a N9, and there is much more to debate about than just what Elop admitted about Skype.

What about N9 sales?

What about high return rate of Lumia range?

What about cash bleeding? What about engineers, who were moved to Accenture and are their a** kicked out of the company as Symbian has no future?

How is Nokia managing issue with Romanian government and the EU about factory closure, that is still not resolved?

What do they think about Vertu, which will use Android as soon as it will be freed?

There is so much I'd like to hear/read them about. Please Tomi, ask them if you can (I don't have twitter, and I'm not ready to create an account).

I understand it's easier to pour gas on one single fire to divert people from the rest of problems, but honestly, I'm a bit fed up about this Skype story as everything has been said about it.

I'll end with a popular saying:

Someone who makes one mistake, is human
Someone who repeats a mistake is stupid
Someone who repeats a mistake and doesn't admit it is an a**hole.

Sorry for being rude.

Titanium

@Spawn Great explanation. This explain why operators hate so much Microsoft: due to skype but also due to Microsoft itself

@Tomi Great article, I think it has opened many eyes and this explain the activation of Nokia PR.

vvaz

@DEKRA

"it was only a real issue for those carriers with a landline business"

Only? Only? Did you write this with straight face or what?

China Mobile - 650M mobile subscribers (mob) - also 3rd largest provider of fixed lines in China
Airtel - 250M mob - 2nd largest provider of fixed lines in India
Telefonica - 230M mob - biggest operator of fixed land lines in countries like Spain, Argentina, Brazil
Orange - 220M mob - Orange equals France Telecom, 'nuff said
T-Mobile - over 300M mob - T-Mobile equals Deutsche Telekom, see above

vladkr

You did a good job here Tomi!

Now, instead of spending money on developing good devices, Nokia, which is already spending indecent money on PR and commercial actions will spend even more just to fight against you.

These guys who are directors - paid slightly more than Finland's minimum salary I guess - will spend their days on Twitter to insult you instead of working efficiently*. That will cost a lot to the company, think about it.

*nah, I'm just kidding about this one.

So Vatar

@vladkr
very good points, and I agree, Skype is only a side show. However, personal egos are involved.

Re N9: There is a report on TMO that N9 is discontinued in Finland as of today. And of course there is no successor for this kind of smartphone, at least not from Nokia.

So, does this happen because lack of demand? We know that the Finns buy Lumias, does this mean they prefer WP to Maemo / MeeGo? What does this mean for other markets? Will Nokia cease to offer N9 in China too and go full out with Lumia? What are Nokia's expectations for Lumia sales in regions? Especially China, India, and the US? Western Europe?

So much more I'd like to know. Guess we have to wait and see until thye next numbers come out, and the we can start to speculate all over again what does it mean and what are the reasons for it.

Aki Antman

Oh well, this is actually quite funny. Tomi read the story in Helsingin Sanomat, which really is the biggest newspaper in Finland. But Tomi knows perfectly well that the story was just a quickly written sideline in a bigger story. And of course couple of translations does not help, especially when Tomi sees only what he wants to see. Tomis original post was a typical blog post – but it’s a far cry from accurate news.

But let’s get to the point. Tomi describes quite well why the carriers could hate the Skype and maybe some of them even still hate it. But they have known for quite a while that Skype and other similar solutions are here to stay – the carriers are not stupid, neither are they living in the past.

And the carriers/operators do not hate Microsoft in general. Actually many of them see both Microsoft business and consumer solutions as a very potential new revenue stream for them. I give you one example. Microsoft launched Office 365 in June 2011. The launch partners included over 20 operators like Bell Canada, Intuit, NTT Communications, Telefonica, Telstra and Vodafone. And Office 365 does include Lync. Which will soon include VOIP calls in the cloud versions and already has clients for WP, iOS, Android etc. And most people guess Lync and Skype will be integrated. And yes, the launch partner did know where the roadmaps are going.

For example here in Finland both two big operators (Elisa and Sonera) are selling Office 365. Actually Elisa just released a press release (http://www.elisa.fi/ir/pressi/index.cfm?t=100&o=5120&did=18016, in Finnish – but guess who is a pro translator now :)) on their success and commitment in Office 365 sales.

So please remember things are not as black and white as Tomi likes to write. We all know how quickly (mobile) world moves. Oh yes, it hurts when you have to adapt your business. But tt least Nokia, Microsoft and the carriers are trying to move forward. And the Skype is actually something the consumers love – before the Nokia / Microsoft co-op it was years ago when Nokia had something like that in their offering. And now that Microsoft owns the Skype, it’ll be something to business users will love, too. And the carriers - there is quite a lot happening already…

Peter

@all

Tomi is correct about skype but under a condition: Nokia/MS do not have a killer phone that every users want to buy.

If Nokia promotes Nokia N9 last year, even if nokia supports whole skype integration, it won't be issue for carriers, because n9 would be the coolest smartphone at that time.

Unfortunately Lumia n900 is a disaster as Tomi revealed, looks cool in shop, turns into disaster at home within one week.

Nokia's plight in Q1 is the returned lumia phones and warranty repair cost. The more lumia sold, the more loss nokia is incurring.

Nokia whole boards and new chairman knows it well, however, they continue claiming it is the right team right strategy right product.

Yeah, right things for WS short sellers for sure.

Time to bring all board members into justice.


Peter

jcamdr

Tomi have understand not only the whole situation since the beginning, he understand what point need to be pointed out to make the shareholders realize the devastating end of Nokia. The emphasis on the Skype problem is en entry point because, from the exact wording of Elop on that question, he assumed he was talking to Microsoft shareholders as a Microsoft executive, not to Nokia shareholders as a Nokia CEO. I don't known how to put it strongly enough; there is no more alarming signal of deaf for all the shareholder's money. I really can't get how there can actually sleep at night. Seem to be unthinkable that a destruction of that scale can exists without any reaction. There are all under drug or what ?

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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