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« Thinking of Donna - Recollections of DJ Tommy T | Main | Postcards from the Digital Jamboree - Whats Happenin' in Smartphones Bloodbath? »

May 18, 2012

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So Vatar

Tomi, you write Microsoft lost it when they had no migration path from Windows Mobile to Windows Phone.
Isn't it an irony? Nokia lost it when they switched to Windows Phone with no migration path from their existing systems (Symbian, Maemo/MeeGo).

Interestingly enough Nokia previously presented a migration path from Symbian to Maemo / MeeGo using Qt.

So an ex-MS executive hired by Nokia replaced a strategy with migration path (Qt) with a strategy without migration path (WP). Interesting parallel, don't you think?

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi So

Totally correct.. Yes, that is one of the many ironies of what is Stephen Elop to Nokia. But in this case, I think the even bigger story is Microsoft. After all, Nokia only ruled handsets for 14 years. Microsoft ruled operating system software for 30 years.. And I had been expecting this milestone to come this year, as I plotted Android growth and PC industry maturing, but didn't expect it to happen in Q1 haha..

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Rei

A bit rough, but true.

Somehow the leading product just have to be of shitty quality: when Windows finally started to catch up with Apple's OS X, it gets beaten by Android, which is easily twice as buggy.

Spawn

And to top that: google also expanded Androids field. ICS did a huge step forward to become more usable on tablets. I would expect that fron there the jump to desktops isnt that huge. Taken into account how wide-spread and common Android is already on mobiles and tablets and taken the amazing large ecp-system of apps and partners into account I would expect that Androod can reach significant share on the desktop within short time. Maybe something we will already see with the next androod iteration.

Dipankar Mitra

Hi Tomi,
Pretty good post. I was sure Microsoft's OS dominance days are over, when in Q1 2012, Apple became the largest seller of personal computing devices. I wrote a smallish post back in Feb (http://dipankarmitra.blogspot.in/2012/02/apples-q4-2011-results-makes-it-largest.html).
As I mention in my blog, I see it possible that Microsoft returns to it's days of writing applications for Apple's devices. Full MS office suite on iPad, anyone?

Spawn

As sidenote: both, from a technical and strategical, viewpoint Android is miles ahead its competition Windows and OSX. I do not think Microsoft can change that. Windows is to large, has to much history inside and is bound to its current path to keep the eco-system. They try to change that with WinCRT but WinCRT is flawn bu design. Just like the faoled Silverlight was. HTML5 is the nexy try but cause of binding it to IE only sibject to fail too. Compared to this Android already suceeded with a flexible and thin system that can and does adapt to new requirements faster then anybody else while keeping apps and solutions, taking them over to new paths.

Compared to Microsoft I think Apple does well. The thing they will address next is to bring iOS and OSX closer together. I think they will make it and stay a good competitor in the future.

That makes 2 non-burning platforms. Keen to see how Tizen will perform. I do not see anu alternate in the mix.

Sander van der Wal

The difference between Android and Windows is that Google is not making any kind of money on Android, while Microsoft made money by the boatload with Windows.

Android can be and is being forked (Amazon, Baidu), Windows has always been under complete control.

The number two in volume, Apple, is now making two orders of magnitude more money than the number one. Compare that to the amount of money being made by Apple in the beginning of Windows.

But fortunately for Microsoft, the smartphone is not going to take over the job of the PC, like the PC took the jobs of mainfraimes and mini's. Nobody is going to create powerpoints on their smartphone.

svensson

I personally like Microsoft. They have provided me with a working pc-software as long as I can remember, they have provided me with a good office package and saved me a lot of money letting me pick out any hardware I wanted in my pc, and it always worked. Win7 is fantastic, everything works with everything, it's even backward-compatible and all odd sorts of hardware is fully supported. Just plug it in. I can plug in my N8, back up with Nokia Suite, sync photos with Picasa and sync music with WMP. Freedom of choice.

What MS is trying to do now is just wrong and alienating, this locked up, poor connectivity and under-performing OS they have created could bore the mind even out of an ios user. And it doesn't stop there, what is the purpose of Zune really, why not let me choose how and with what I want to add more music or copy photos from my smartphone. Until MS figures this out I will not be one their customers on the smartphone market.

Thanx Tomi for another great post.

JohnatNokia

Tomi, you’ve become a serial distortionist. Recently, we called you out for your blanket practice of attributing bogus “admissions” to Stephen Elop. Some of your readers were compelled to do the same, in some detail, in the May 9 comments on this blog (hope you did not delete them).

Other bloggers got it right when they read Elop’s verbatim remarks, yet you continue to distort, so let’s try this again: Among other things, Elop never characterized operators’ view of Skype as “hate.” He never said anything like Microsoft’s ownership of Skype was punishing Lumia sales.

And to make it distortion in the first degree, you also dodge the crux of Elop’s Skype comments … that Nokia is turning around Skype to our advantage when it comes to discussions with operators. How convenient for your agenda. How inconvenient for your credibility.

You are entitled to your opinions, but – despite your bloviation, obfuscation, personal insults and profane rants – we will continue to call you out whenever you twist things, cherry pick words, or in any way distort to fit your agenda.

jiipee

@Sander van der Wal
You are making good points on the division of profits. Google's earning logic is so different that it will make competing difficult.

What is the future of PCs might differ in my opinion. I could personally invest in mobile hardware that I could easily dock to TV, laptop frame, tablet screen, home entertainment system etc. The future of current PCs I see as tools for heavy users such as data analyst, media,... Powerpoints or simple spreadsheets one can easily make with a mobile device within few years.

Tomi T Ahonen

This to Johnatnokia

Hey! You have the nerve to come here and leave a comment in this thread, with more accusations, while you STILL HAVE NOT TOLD ME WHERE I MISQUOTED YOUR BOSS.

You accused me of 'fabricating' things Elop said. You accused me in public on Twitter on 9 May. I responded, asked more than a dozen separate times for you to point out where in my blog was a specific quotation that I attributed to Elop, which was a fabrication - and you never showed it. Instead like a coward, like a 'chicken shit' you made your accusation and then refused to back it up.

I am not playing this game with you Johnatnokia, John S Pope Nokia Director of Communications, in charge of the Social Media Strategy for Nokia. You MUST first show me where I falsely quoted your boss Stephen Elop, where is my fabrication. What did I put in quotes claiming Elop said, that was false. You show me that. Then we'll talk about what else nonsense you claim.

I clearly quote Elop for his words. Then I explain what he means - as he often - in fact 'serially' distorts the truth and at times he deliberately lies - such as his claim of Nokia Symbian sales in decline when he issued the Burning Platforms memo, when Nokia own Quarterly Results show Symbian was growing.

So - John Pope, johnatnokia - I will keep your posting here. I will not only leave it here for all to see, I will drive my Twitter followers here to see it, and I will post a full blog reply to you, calling you out for being the coward that you are. You accuse me of fabrication - you show me where in that blog post is one word wrongly attributed to Elop. Unless you can do that, you owe me an apology. Shame on you John S Pope. This is exactly the same arrogant bullying you did over at Dell previously in your career, when Dell went through what is known as Dell Hell. Shame on you!

To all who want to know what this is about, read my posting about John's accusations at entitled - Electronic Echoes and the Bizarre War Nokia's John S Pope is Waging on Me. It is at this link

http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/05/electronic-echoes-and-the-bizarre-war-nokia-communications-director-john-pope-now-waging-with-me.html

And if you want to read the exact quotes of Elop from the Shareholders' meeting and how I quoted Elop, it is entitled Nokia So Alarmed, Release Full Text and Video of Elop to try to Spin the Story. It is at this link

http://communities-dominate.blogs.com/brands/2012/05/nokia-so-alarmed-release-full-text-of-skype-comment-by-elop-trying-to-spin-the-story.html

John S Pope johnatnokia - you are despicable for these accusations. Is this how Nokia intends to bully its way in the era of social media. Shame on you!

Tomi Ahonen

JohnatNokia

You have our response. And shame on you, sir, for deleting/censoring on-topic commentary on this blog that also called you out, e.g. the short-lived comment from "nokiafan" who said he disagreed with Nokia strategy but thought it wrong of you to put words in the mouths of others.

Tomi T Ahonen

JohnatNokia ie John Pope of Nokia

I delete spam and trolls plus there are rules about what kind of comments are accepted. Funny you should 'notice' that comment. I saw where it came from haha, did you two coordinate this actually on a strategic plan or what? No. You don't get to make NEW accusations, John Pope Director of Communications of Nokia, and in Charge of Social Media Strategy of Nokia. You accused me on 9 May of fabricating quotes about your boss. I asked you, I asked you MANY times to show what quote was wrong. You never even offered me one such instance. Only you continue with new accusations. I do not play that game John S Pope of Nokia. You first answer to your FIRST accusation. Where have I misquoted your boss on that blog. Where is one word misquoted? When you tell me, we can examine that, and then either I need to correct the error, as I do on this blog when I make mistakes, or else you apologize to me, and to my readers and followers for making a false accusation.

We are not playing a game where you get to come here to harass me every week with new UNFOUNDED complaints. You tell me where is the fabrication, where did I misquote your boss, Stephen Elop about his words to the Nokia Shareholders' Meeting in May. You tell me that. It was not me who started this, John S Pope, Director of Communications at Nokia. YOU started this by accusing me of fabricating words said by your boss. So show me where, or apologize.

And John, this will only get worse, you know it. I have tons of articles and stories already waiting to be published in Electronic Echoes part 2. You are only making this worse for Nokia. How unethical is it for you to attack some blogger and then not specify where is the error. You are a disgrace. Shame on you John S Pope, Director of Communciations at Nokia. Shame!

Tomi Ahonen

vijay

1. Silly you think MS will live and die as an OS Vendor:

a. ofcourse it cannot survive being just an OS vendor;

b. being just an os vendor changed around the year 1991, when linus torvalds said sw dev should be philanthropy and not biz. nobody can beat free as in "free beer".

c. our dear redhat entered the billion dollar club this year[took 20 years]

d. selling an OS is just a side biz for MS - but which is fortunately making 20 billion/quarter revenue

e. apple sells hw and experience with free ios; google sells ads thru search with free android/linux. MS RELIED ON PARTNERS TO BUILD GREAT PC'S WHICH BOMBED.

f. its core biz is "BUSINESS SOFTWARE" - office, sharepoint, dynamics/crm, exchange, etc. [ofcourse all of them have good competition which is good]

g. it missed the boat with mobi, but there are atleast 5 future trendz where it is in: cloud[azure], tablets[win8/nook], livingroom[xbox], apps[skype/office(not on ipad yet for strategic reasons)]

h. MS good @ 3E

i. it already has a war chest of patents and is constantly increasing it @10Billion/Year; [12000patents] which are sufficient to just live happily ever after [licensing the stuff]

vijay

Tomi, your interpretation of
"- Elop replied not just that it was true, but he added the phrase 'of course' to underline how clearly this is known in the industry. " is baseless

I think he meant

1. "anyway skype will be available in all handsets:ios,android,etc"

2. "keeping skype from being bought by apple and google is much better;"

3. "carriers thru microsoft" "having control over skype" is much better than letting it be in the wild and cause shivers.

don_afrim@twitter

Tomi,
I think you're too good and way over their heads, John Pope and Steve Elop, to argue with them. They are too dumb to even argue. These fools have no clue about mobile and they just destroyed the biggest smartphone company in the world.
I really give the blame to the Nokia Board. They have lost it completely. Why no intervention with a pink slip to both Elop, John Pope and all the incompetent new people at Nokia who are ruining this company is just beyond me.

I HAVE A MESSAGE THE NOKIA BOARD: FIRE STEVEN ELOP, JOHN POPE AND ALL THE NEW INCOMPETENT PEOPLE ELOP HAS BROUGHT SINCE JOINING NOKIA.

Grim Reaper is coming to town!

@Vijay, that rings so true! I've been following the software business 30 years and when I have a gut instinct about something it usually holds. There's so much more than just OS, but as you said it makes huge profits for MS. Windows powers this planet's PC's. It is as simple as that.

This January I thought that Nokia is going under real soon. I was not wrong. There is max. 1-2 mo's left.

Tomi T Ahonen

Vijay

I have a policy here that comments that do not reflect that they have read the blog - and would necessitate a response from me starting with 'if you read the blog' - are a waste of time of my readers, and will be deleted without mercy. Now, in this case (your second reply) you are not talking about this blog article about Microsoft, you refer to the debate we're having with Johnatnokia ie John Pope and I'll give you some lee-way. Please vijay, go read the actual blog article I refer to, called "Nokia So Alarmed.." (see link in the above or click on the link to the right here among recent blog postings). This is what Elop was asked, verbatim:

"I believe Nokia has a problem with product distribution. Operators do not want to sell Windows Phone smartphones, because Microsoft has acquired Skype, who offers free Internet calls. Skype calls are eating operator revenue. There may be ways to block Skype, but there will always be ways to get around it. What will you (Nokia) do to get over this problem."

This is the relevant part of Elop's answer, that had the phrase 'of course' - notice how explicit his response is and how 'of course' cannot refer to the three matters you mention. Elop said, verbatim:

"The feedback from operators is they don’t like Skype, of course"

It cannot be more clear. The phrase 'of course' refers to 'operators don't like skype' which is Elop's direct response to the shareholder who asked whether its true that operators do not want to sell Windows Phone smartphones 'because Microsoft acquired Skype'. Vijay, please go read the actual blog - and if you still feel there is some ambiguity about it, that blog comments thread is the best place to continue this discussion, not here in this blog about Microsoft becoming another Kodak.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

To the rest in this thread..

Sorry about that, my policy is usually to respond in sequence of comments left here, in chronological order. But because Johnatnokia ie John Pope has been waging a war on me and my reputation both on Twitter and now here on this blog, and that started on 9 May, I did want to address his comment immediately, as it goes to his accusations about my credibility and honesty.

I will return with comments to the others in this thread, and will do that now, just so you guys don't need to wait for your replies haha, while that moron from Nokia hijacks the valid discussion with totally new unfounded and baseless accusations. Like 'serial distortionist' ??? It wasn't my company who demolished its loyal customer base falling from 29% to 8% in just 15 months, setting a world record in scaring away customers. It wasn't my company that saw its share price collapse from over 8 Euros to under 2.30 Euros in the same period wiping out enormous value from its shareholders. It wasn't I who accused Pope of fabricating stuff - he accused me - and if you accuse someone, you should at least be man enough to point out where that happened... Well, he's a moron obviously, and not competent to be in charge of Nokia Social Media Strategy haha..

Comments coming to you all, Rei, Spawn, Dipankar, Sander, svensson, jiipee, vijay, don and Grim. Hold on

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Rei, Spawn, Dipankar, Sander, svensson

Rei - haha, yeah the irony. And I'd add that at least Google is working far harder at bringing Android up to speed than what has been Microsoft's pace in the past haha. They found it so bad that they even quit giving year numbers to their software, they could not commit to a schedule to launch in any one year haha..

Spawn - very true. At the same time the traditional Desktop market is shrinking. The laptop is becoming ever closer to netbooks and part of portable PCs is shifting to tablets. All the trends are in favor of Android

Dipankar - good blog posting BTW, and yeah, haha, I forgot that yeah, early on MS made apps for the Mac that it didn't even offer for the IBM side haha like Word..

Spawn (2nd comment) - totally agree, Windows became bloatware, massively

Sander - good points but beware that thought 'nobody will make powerpoints on smartphones' - apart from many who already do (remember for many in less affluent countries, a smartphone is often the only PC they have access to) - same could be said for Cobol based business reporting software of the 1970s and early 1980s. Nobody bothered to do that on PCs because we had something far better (Lotus 1-2-3, Excel, Quattro, Visicalc etc spreadsheets). The input options on modern smartphones totally dwarf those available on PCs and we may well see a similar leapfrog making current powerpoint as outdated as Cobol was to PC users (says one so old, who still learned Cobol at university haha..). I'm not saying it is in any way inevitable, but it is likely. So just you might re-think that part as you consider smartphones as the new computer paradigm for this decade haha..

svensson - and you are not alone. Windows runs on roughly a Billion PCs and most of those users will also have some kind of Microsoft suite of apps and many of those are very happy using Word, Excel, Internet Exploder etc. Nothing wrong with that, but yeah, thanks for mentioning. Microsoft is not about to disappear this year or next, they have a long decline coming - but so it also looked for Kodak at the start of the previous decade. I see very strong parallels with Microsoft today and Kodak about year 2003 or so, when more pictures were taken on digital cameras including cameraphones, than on film and paper..

Thanks to all, more comments immediately next

Tomi Ahonen :-)

vijay

microsofts troubles with security, stability, and slow sw releases started with 1 BIG feature they always thought is good of everybody: LEGACY SUPPORT

apple recreated their OS twice or thrice in their history without legacy support and yet they are happy ?

vijay

i appreciate your elaborate insightful articles but

sorry Tomi, I still believe elop's 'of course' meant

"operators dislike skype"

and I will no longer post comments related to nokia and elop

in this article.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi jiipee, vijay, don and Grim

And Sander, I forgot.. (see Jiipee)

jiipee - hey, great point to Sander about Google way to make money. And Sander, sorry, I forgot to talk about that. Yes. Google has figured out the way to kind of 'game' the system in telecoms. Normally, if you want to be in control of all the devices in our pockets, the only way is to get a licence to operate a network ie become a carrier. That means license fees but most of all, it means massive infrastructure costs, typical modern cellular network infra costs about 1 Billion dollars for a typical mid-sized country. Then you still have to fight the other rival network operators and its near impossible to be in 'most' pockets of your country unless you're the incumbent who might have half of the market.

Google instead has now become the predominant OS layer. They have captured essentially half of all handsets (assuming the total handset industry migrates during this decade from dumbphones to smartphones, as increasingly the industry consensus is agreeing with me on that). And what do they get? They have very similar info to what network operators are able to get about our traffic and behavior! This is what many futurist and technologists now argue the most valuable part of the telecoms future. The carriers have access to it, and Google does (and of course any other smartphone OS vendor, Apple, Blackberry, Microsoft, Nokia, Samsung etc). But only Google reaches half of the planet this way - all without spending one dime on network licenses and no billions on the networks themselves. Its a kind of heist of the century in a way haha.. They will never need to charge one cent for the OS, this data is so much more valuable..

jiipee - obviously we both agree on the future of the role of the 'mobile' being a kind of centralized connection device tying together our digital devices, screens, etc and providing connectivity also across those devices.

vijay - good points about MS other businesses and I don't agree on those. I would suggest, that their initial growth was, and their sustained business to some degree still is, dependent on also being the OS provider. The office suite for example comes very often as a package with new Windows laptop purchases. If those customers were actually to select apps for their 'office' needs, they might very well buy other apps or packages, but MS gains disproportionately by being the default OS platform on PCs.

don - thanks! And obviously we 100% agree on the Nokia parts haha. Should be fired already haha..

Grim - please note same as the comment I said to vijay about Windows OS being a basis for much of MS other sales. Not all, definitely, but a major part. As to end? I did say last year I didn't expect Nokia to survive this Spring. That time line is starting to run out haha..

Ok, thats the responses to all, thanks for the comments, please keep the discussion coming

Tomi Ahonen :-)

vijay

@Grim Reaper:

very true about Nokia : 1 or 2 months

their only saviors:
1. win8
2. patents
3. also support android [???]
4. lowend / medium / base markets
5. play 2nd fiddle in china, russia markets [android is king, iphone is 3rd]

vijay

@Tomi, wow I never thought of this angle!

"They have very similar info to what network operators are able to get about our traffic and behavior"

gr8 insight.

I wonder in what ways knowledge about "users traffic and behavior" can be leveraged ?

It also reminds me of
1. google collecting wifi data by mistake:
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iFNqsWIz56M14j7joUB4YKsW7yRg
2. apple collecting of user/anonymous location data:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/28/technology/28apple.html

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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