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April 25, 2012

Comments

Sander van der Wal

What's wrong with these figures for Lumia? 300% growth in Europe, 200% in APAC. Selling in less area's than the N9 and selling only 10% less. The N9 has a similar growth rate in Latin America and MEA, but with much lower volumes. Growth in other regions is tiny. Lumia isn't growing as fast as the original iPhone, but the difference is small, not an order of magnitude.

Much to early to call this a fail, or a succes.

Also, remember that an SDK for iPhone took a year to materialize. Developers are waiting to see whether it will continue to grow. If it does it will attract more developers.

DS

I'm afraid it's way too late for stock N9 to make a difference. I've looked at my country local ebay equivalent and you can easily encounter barely used N9s at unbelievable prices (say $200-$250 range). The EOL announcement has killed its desirability and seeing Lumia ads everywhere worn off its novelty and design uniqueness factor. The hardware will be laughable when Galaxy S3 shows up next week.
Nokia could try to move some of them but I don't believe they could fully compensate for Lumia failure. On the other hand some cash is better than no cash, but unless they have HW running Maemo that matches GS 3 or One S and has 41mpx goodness, I don't know.

huohuoho

LOL @ N9 selling over 2 milli. How can it be if Nokia hasn't even produced that many N9s??

Timo Koola

Nokia reported numbers are channel sales i.e. reconditioned phones would not be part of that 600k figure? Also, wouldn't most Symbian phones on storeshelves be anyway reported as sell-in already earlierly?

@vladkr thanks, I was in no way implying Lumias would be hit phones in Canada. Even if numbers were horrible they would probably be more than 20k?

vladkr

You're welcome Timo;

I just tried to give the most objective facts I could. I live in one of Canadian provinces, which is not really the image of the whole Canada.

I know there was some excitement in Europe at Lumia's launch in Europe, but I haven't seen anything similar here (maybe because main media companies own Telus and Rogers competitors).

So it's very complicated to get any precise figures about what's happening at Nokia.

I'm not even sure that official data is 100% true (there is always a way to trick numbers, by delaying payment for instance, many companies do that)

Prakriti

@vladkr:
thanks for posting the links and reply.

Here are more recent articles you'll like:
1. Elop says 'Multiple cores just waste battery life'
http://www.phonearena.com/news/Stephen-Elop-says-dual--quad-core-phones-just-waste-battery-life_id28048
2. Elop says 'Nokia is no longer in the Danger Zone'
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/elop-nokia-no-longer-in-the-danger-zone-2012-02-13

My last comment was largely sarcastic-- because I am shocked Nokia seems dying and Finland will lose thousands of jobs first in job cuts etc-- and hardly anybody is trying to raise awareness in a organized way.

There is just nothing like that.... and that's something that makes me wonder-- that either it's not as bad as it looks to us all OR there is maybe something more to the story

vladkr

@Prakriti:
Wow, that was quite subtle (or I was quite naive), so I haven't guessed it was sarcasm, sorry. Well done anyway

Many of us see the fire, and want to call the fire squad, but apparently no one has a proper phone to do so, and we just watch Nokia burning/sinking.

My only hope now is that former Nokia talents will group, and create a future leader.

another good, but long reading:
http://crave.cnet.co.uk/mobiles/nokias-windows-phone-bear-hug-is-choking-the-mighty-finn-50007750/

ejvictor

Milton, Milton, Milton.... you're new here, seem to be from America and have never even seen an N9 - possibly even a Symbian phone. 1) Find out what QT is. 2)Try other OS's and ecosystems. At this point would you like ketchup or mustard?

ejvictor

Everything you need to know about Elop's hate for the N9 in one article.

http://conversations.nokia.com/2012/04/25/sharp-design-is-pencilled-in-by-dad-judges/

Poor Ian (author) probably doesn't want to loose his job, but this article is a triumph of corporate assasination. For your consideration;
1) Headline- no mention of N9
2) N9's photo 3rd down is story.
3) N9's category mis-quoted in story.
4) N9 winner of more advanced category-interactive design mentioned as an "also won".
5) No mention that N9 beat iPad2.

How much does Elop hate the N9.... If Job's were alive (RIP) and the iPhone won this every human on the planet would know this and the stock price would have shot up 4 points. :)

karlim

Some pretty cool ideas and food for thought here. And the exercise to duplicate your results, following the way you arrived to them, was certainly an interesting one, even if I failed. As I said earlier- not too good myself with modeling, Excel and stuff. Some observations from it:

Any way I tried to come to it - it seems that the initial thing you did was taking original Lumia launch prices for 800/710 EUR420/270. Add them up and divide by 2. Then use the 1.55 ratio on Eur 220 ASP arriving at your real ASP.

Problem is-ASPs are calculated on real life sales and on real numbers of devices sold. Your whole model assumes 50/50 split between Lumia 800 and 710. How real is that? Possible. Certainly. But just as possible as 40/60, 60/40, 30/70, 70/30 splits and many more in-between. And all the modeling later falls apart if you got that first assumption wrong.

Now moving to U.S sales. And adding the assumption that Nokia sold N710 to T-Mo U.S at the same price it sold it to a carrier in Hong-Kong or Philippines. Which is a rather major assumption too. How you arrived to 290K number, can't figure it out. Did my modelling on my own - and got 5 equally valid numbers for Lumia 710 at 172 Euro ASP, depending on how many of those 0.6M devices sold in North America were Lumias on T-Mobile:

Lumia No. 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
Lumia Revs. 17.2 34.4 51.6 68.8 86
Non Lumia revs 75.8 58.6 41.4 24.2 7
Non Lumia volumes 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1

Total US revenues 93 93 93 93 93
Non Lumia ASP 151.6 146.5 138 121 70

All possible.

But we do also have “unpolluted” Nokia U.S sales/unit numbers without any Lumia for the last few years. In every Nokia quarterly report. Divide U.S revenues by units sold up to Q1 - and you get an "unpolluted" Nokia U.S device ASP. Which was at a pretty steady 105 Euro in Q3 and Q4 2011, before the first Lumia shipped in U.S

In Q1 2012 ASP jumped to Eur154. And I have seen no reasons to think why non Lumia ASP should have changed radically in Q1. So most of that ASP jump must have come from Lumia 710. Based on that assumption - T-Mobile is much more likely to have sold somewhere between 400 000 and 500 000 Lumia 710s, then 300K...

If I ignore the fact that all those Nos are for North America, which includes Canada too, at least. Not sure where Mexico fits in in Nokia breakdowns.

If we do include Canada - where Lumia 800 shipped in early February on Rogers, and 710 in early March on TElus - ther is no way to tell.

Well, modeling things get even worse for me for all the stuff later.

karlim

And that's even before we get to those N9 numbers you refer as fact. Based mostly on so flimsy a source as a comment on allaboutsymbian.com website. A wrong and debunked comment, by aas owner Rafe Bladford himself. But I did post the details quite a few times already - not that you did try to even check it, and see if your numbers are indeed correct. Well, won't go into those details again. Will just repost from previous thread:

Tomi's reference to N9 sales indeed comes from a source. The question is about reliability of that source. Which was 1 or 2 commenters on AllAboutSymbian.com. And a comment that was absolutely wrong on assumptions the commenter made, and that was refuted by original author/AAS owner Rafe Blandford and other commenters. And if you have to rely on that kind of source to make your case, and then you start presenting it as a fact... Sorry, but that will be uber lame for any run of the mill blogger. For a guy who is #1 mobile influencer in mobile "according to Forbes", multiple books author yayda yada yada - it is just sad.

Here is Tomi's "reliable sources" about : http://www.allaboutsymbian.com/news/item/14122_Nokia_Q4_2011-in_the_heart_of_.php#comment-421364228

And one of rebuttals:
http://www.allaboutsymbian.com/news/item/14122_Nokia_Q4_2011-in_the_heart_of_.php#comment-421726142

Timmy

@Sander
Lumia selling in less areas then N9? Are you aware of the areas where N9/Lumia are sold? Do I really need to google and copy+paste the list? As german i had to spend significant time and energy myself do just give Nokia my money by buying one. It took 2 weeks till the N9 finally arrived at my home. That was cleaely the most difficult process ever to buy a phone here in the capitol city of europes biggest market.

Timmy

@huohuoho
Not representative but here in germany I already saw lots of people with a N9 but no single one with a Lumia. Maybe because we are a high-tech city with lots of developers? Maybe because it is not easy to buy Lumias either since most shops here do not even offee them? Dont know but I do know that it seems to be more or less equally hard here to get a Lumia or N9 and yet N9 seems to sell much better. Maybe different in the US or china. Hard to guess.

Spawn

When Nokias Elop aborted Meego he also aborted a whole productline that was about to be released. Tablets.
Nokia was working on Meego Tablets. There where even offocial releases of Meego for Tablets. It seems that unlike with Meego phone there was no contract that forced Nokia to bring at least one device to market. So the tablet got killed short before it was ready.

Till today Nokia does not offer a tablet cause Windows Phone cannot run om tablets. Now taken the success tablets like the iPas have up to today in the market I do not understand why Nokia aborted that productline without any alternate, after the investment was done and short before it was ready for the market. It makes no sense.

elm70

Just a little news that goes in the direction of Tomi:
http://www.tesco.pl/sklepy/extra/telefony/nokia.php
Yes, Tesco Poland is not selling any Lumia from Nokia, and the N9 is also discounted now, but 2500 PLN, is well over 500 EUR, not sure anybody in a poor country like Poland, in a cheap shop like Tesco is going to buy a N9 ...

Tchuss

e_lm_70

KimiRäkä

NO WAY that N9 has been produced that many units! 2 mil. N9 unit costs 190 € to make no way Nokia has put 400 million into making a PASSING PRODUCT NEVER TO BE RETURNED TO AGAIN !!

-- ALERT -- ALERT -- REALITY DISTORTION FIELD IMMINENT -- ALERT -- ALERT -- START WARP ENGINES AND MAKE TURN -- ALERT

Edward Bonney

I wonder about the lack of traction in Asia. There is not much in the way of hard numbers coming out of Asia. Lumia is the second best selling phone after iphone in the third largest telecom operator in China - even third is something given the number of subscribers involved. Also the blown away by Nokia campaign seems on the face of things to be successful in India with Samsung complaining about unfair marketing. Also I wonder how pureview will affect the sales figures although it is just going on sale in May. But maybe I am indulging in wishful thinking here.

In any case Tomi is a pretty bitter guy it seems to me and while I can take on board his arguments about the N9 and Elop and so on, I think it is too late for Nokia to reverse its course and it is better to see this through to the end whatever it may be. AT&T and Verizon have a stake in seeing that Nokia succeeds and so those Microsoft so that gives Nokia an advantage.

bhakumar

My son bought an N9. I said why you bought a product that is ceased. He cursed me. We'll see who is right!

Prakriti

@vladkr:
thanks for the reply-- BTW, whats your twitter ID ? can you reply this with your twitter ID as "web site url" ?

P

Very good interview
http://crave.cnet.co.uk/mobiles/nokias-windows-phone-bear-hug-is-choking-the-mighty-finn-50007750/
* 'Elop has no overarching vision for Nokia'
* 'He sold the deal as Windows Phone or nothing -- it wasn't'
* 'Symbian was Nokia's cash-cow -- Elop sacrificed it'
* 'Android is not the answer'
* 'Today's Lumia phones have stacks of shortcomings'
* 'Nokia is Finland, and Finland is Nokia'

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