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April 25, 2012

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vladkr

The N9 is quite an interesting case as there was an unofficial logistics to deliver to countries where it wasn't supposed to be released:

I got my N9 from a US based store, which got its N9 from Australia (or New Zealand)

Many French got their N9 (especially the fabulous white ones) from Verkkokauppa in Finland or from Switzerland, before some French reseller decided to sell it (and they sold it quite well) directly.

I also noticed that Lumia 800 disappeared from ATT website few weeks ago (maybe sooner, I don't know as I don't check it regularly) - I'm just sure it was way before the 900 was released.

Alex Kerr

Interesting data, thanks Tomi.

N9 just won a major design award: http://mynokiablog.com/2012/04/25/nokia-n9-wins-design-and-art-direction-award-coveted-yellow-pencil-for-interactive-design/

808 Pureview has just won the TIPA award for best imaging ‘the most coveted photo and imaging awards worldwide’: http://mynokiablog.com/2012/04/24/nokia-808-pureview-wins-tipa-best-innovation-award-revolution-in-mobile-imaging/

Nokia's best work is VERY clearly on MeeGo (/Harmattan) and on Symbian. Still.

Nokia will now sideline their best work and continue to bloody mindedly push their less-than-best-work, Lumia, no matter what. Possibly to corporate destruction.

Outgoing Chairman says it's all going to be fine and success in the next few years. http://mynokiablog.com/2012/04/25/jorma-ollila-nokia-to-turn-things-around-at-the-end-of-the-year-success-in-the-next-few-years/
Strange, Nokia DID have success for many years until the last year or so, and could have enjoyed much greater success in the last year. So Elop will not be fired anytime soon and Nokia will continue it's path.

Everything they have done has been in support of Microsoft, and not Nokia. It is very clear to see. The board supports everything.

One has to ask, who exactly is pulling the strings, and why has action not been taken against them to save Nokia, save investors, and provide consumers with the best products?

ejvictor

http://www.dandad.org/awards/professional/2012/categories/prod/product-design/04255/nokia-n9

Great job N9 Team - beat iPad2 and Nokia Lumia 800 (Read here beat iOS and WP 7.5) for another feather in the cap!!!!

It bothers me that Nokia find the all eggs in one basket (WP) strategy acceptable in this day and age.

Manu

That Lumia region wise sales number gives a fair idea where Nokia has been losing. Traditionally, APAC has been strong centre for Nokia smartphone sales, but as you pointed out correctly, I've not seen good traction for Lumia in my country (India) despite very strong marketing campaign.
As for N9, I find those numbers pretty hard to digest, especially considering :
1) It hasn't been released in any major countries. Only in minuscule markets for the sake of availability.
2) There's apparently no market push for Meego/N9/Harmattan.
3) The ecosystem around it is no say in comparison to iOS & Android. Though, you'll argue Qt is better.
4) It hasn't got any specific push from Network Providers either which you stress is very important from market share point of view.

Apart from above apparent points, heres a quick point in hindsight :
- Nokia has already out-sourced production facilities. There has been layoffs in European production facilities. Than, there are reports that European production facilities have been idling. Nokia has maintained since Q1 - That they are selling every Lumia phone they can manufacture. Even today, there are reports that N900 UK release has been delayed due to strong AT&T demand.
I wonder how are they able to ramp up production for N9 in north of 2 million units in Q1 considering the cynical attitude of Elop towards Harmattan/N9.

jiipee

It is hard for me to believe in the 2,2 mio figure. Should N9/Meego be visible in the Statcounter stats at least close to level of WP (which is in itself a rounding error by some analysts).

After reading through Nokias Q1 report and noticing that N9 is not really mentioned at all (in 2011 report it was always mentioned before Lumia), two options come into my mind:
- The sales figures is a lot lower than in Q1 and is not worth mentioning because they just need to report the true and fair view OR
- The sales figures are on the same level as Q4, again, because of the need to give true and fair view. If the demand for N9 had crashed in Q1 that should be significant enough to be mentioned! After all 2 million phones with ASP of ~300 EUR means significant amount of cash in comparison to their bottom line.

KPOM

I doubt that the 310,000 Symbian sales in the US is meaningful. They are mostly throwaway phones sold through Straight Talk at Walmart to run on T-Mobile, or cheap phones sold to prepaid customers. Nokia hasn't been taken seriously by the US carriers for over a decade, so the Lumia 900 launch is actually a great success by Nokia standards over here. AT&T supposedly sold out of them.

st7761

Compal Communications to see strong smartphone shipments to Nokia in 2Q12
http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20120424PD201.html

Jack

Nokia has been selling a Lumia 800 bundle unlocked in Microsoft Stores since February 14. The price? $999; explaining the higher ASP.

Since release, the 710 has charted in T-Mo USA's Top 3 best selling phones with a service agreement.

There is no way Symbian phones have outsold these two phones.

elm70

2.2M of Nokia N9 in Q1 , growing from 1.7B from Q4

Tomi , be serous ... you are joking ;-)

I think Nokia is not even able to produce so many N9. I think they are producing no more then 100k N9 per month
Also this will imply that Nokia sold only 8M of cheap Symbian ... again hard to believe.

Tchuss

e_lm_70

ejvictor

Tomi’s strategy can be Turbo charged!!!

One of the issues around MeeGo and its “shelving” was Intel’s delay in delivering the new hardware…. Guess what Medfield is here!!! I remember that one of the MeeGo Devs had words with Elop around how easy it was to move MeeGo to a new hardware architecture. Now Just Imagine N9 (N10) on Medfield hardware running Alien Dalvik and QT – DONE!

Timo Koola

How about Canada (apart from blaming them for Bryan Adams)? Is that not part of the NAM figures. AFAIK, Canada did get both Lumias during Q1.

Stephens_Eloped

No matter what the figures, the stats and the opinions, it will always baffle me as to why Nokia stopped development and further devices running MeeGo. The N9 is a clear winner (in more than one sense) and it makes ZERO sense to me that a manufacturer could create such an amazing and popular product that they then just simply refuse to sell properly, and then cut off its development. Nokia ran OSes concurrently in the past (S30, S40, S60, Symbian^3 and Maemo) so why can't they continue with that plan (S30, S40, Symbian^3, MeeGo and Windows Phone). Well we can all guess. My guess is that Elop and Ballmer came to an agreement whereby Ballmer said that Microsoft would only enter into this agreement if they made WP the ONLY smartphone strategy, thus killing S^3 and MeeGo in one fell swoop. I can't believe the board took this lightly. It just seems to make no sense. But then again, it's not nonsense, it was planned. Elop wants WP to succeed, and therefore other 'rivals' need to go. Easy to get rid of things you already control. My N9 won't get replaced by anything for a long, long time. It's the last piece of Nokia hardware AND software I can be proud to carry around. Thank God it got released while this sh1t was going on last year.

KPOM

If you want to get a sense of the types of Symbian phones still on sale in the US, go to www.straightalk.com. You'll see a reconditioned Nokia E71 for $49.99, a reconditioned Nokia 6790 for $49.99, and a Nokia E5 for $149.99. Mind you, these are unsubsidized prices, as Straight Talk is all prepaid. The people buying them are looking for cheap talk-and-text phones and probably don't realize and couldn't care less that they have "smartphones." (They have some Android 2.3 and even 2.2 devices for the people who might actually want them).

I've also read on various mobile enthusiast message boards that the Nokias are a good buy on Straight Talk because they are GSM (their Androids are mostly CDMA), and can be used to activate a prepaid plan on an MVNO that roams on AT&T for their iPhones or Android phones. The thing to remember is that Nokia had a reputation in the US for being a purveyor of cheap phones. They tried selling the N95, E51, 5800 and N97 in a few "flagship stores" a few years ago (I bought several phones there, myself), but most people weren't interested in paying full price for a phone, let alone one running an OS they never heard of.

AT&T and Verizon seem willing to prop up Windows Phone to give them some leverage (they hope) against Apple and Samsung. Those iPhone and Galaxy subsidies are hitting their bottom line. Verizon and AT&T actually "beat the street" by selling fewer iPhones than expected. Perhaps Nokia would have been better off switching to Android (they might have kept Samsung in check had they done so), but they made their decision to go with Windows Phone, and the two largest carriers realize that there's no one else left besides Nokia and Windows Phone to try to create some competition. Motorola Mobility is primarily an IP treasure trove for Google, and LG and HTC have largely fallen by the wayside. People who seek out an Android (rather than just "settle" for one because their carrier doesn't carry the iPhone) buy Samsung Galaxy phones. Now that iPhone is on 3 main carriers and even a lot of small carriers, fewer and fewer people have to "settle" for something else. WP at least gives them something different to advertise.

vladkr

@Timo Koola:

If it's hard to get figures from US operators, I can imagine that it's even harder to get them from Telus and Rogers.


Lumia 800: arrived with some delay, on March - I don't know why - on Telus network at $100 (with 3 years contract), but was lowered to $50 after just one month.


Lumia 710: was released in Canada about at the same time as in the US. Don't have precise figures, but I know that in Quebec city it's low, VERY low...

Sellers are usually reluctant to give their figures, but I know that the main Rogers reseller in Quebec city had sold only one 710, 10 days after its release.
Price was cut at half too


Lumia 900: pre-sales were very difficult to find on Rogers website; the only way to find it was to google it. BTW it was a special Black Knight edition.

It was then released just two days after the US (Rogers never releases anything on holidays/WE).
I haven't noticed any excitement about this model in all the QC province, even in Montreal (no hysteria as in Paris or London)

Maybe ejvictor or anyone else from Canada has made different observation; Maybe it's successful in Toronto Metro area, or in Newfoundland... I don't know.

P

@e_lm_70

The price for N9 in Sweden is now about $400 (ink 25% vat), I have bought two. The price was lowered in February I think and then it did rise in sale statistics.

Eurofan

Tomi: Thanks for crunching out these numbers. Your estimates are better than no information whatsoever and Nokia has clearly put an embargo on specific information about both N9 and Lumia sales. Makes me think too that N9 sells better than Nokia would like to admit and Lumia doesn't sell as well as they expected. Return figures would be very interesting to see for each line, too. I'm just making suggestions for the Nokia Board if they felt like doing their job and getting some more specific information from management on how Nokia's strategic transformation is coming along.

I don't think Nokia will sell 4 million Lumia's in Q2. I think Nokia will be lucky to sell 2 million again. Their best chances for Lumia sales were in North America and Western Europe and already those markets have spoken by their indifference. Anyone who was actually waiting for IE and Zune on their phone bought a Lumia in Q4 or Q1 in Europe and America. Q2 will be word of mouth sales and sales in regions even less hospitable to Microsoft. Those sales aren't going to happen.

@ejvictor: Thanks for keeping us posted on Intel and their Medfield program.

So Vatar

Tomi, I can follow your math re Lumia sales, but I cannot see that your Q1 N9 numbers are substantiated by any math.
There is a way to zero in on Q4 sales numbers for N9, I came up with about 1.2 Mio devices (well below your estimate). I do not see any numbers released (yet) from where one can deduct Q1 sales of N9. That Elop does not talk about it tells nothing, only that N9 is irrelevant in his mind (which is wrong on several levels, but anything non WP is not relevant to him regarding Smart Phones).

I'd appreciate if you could show numbers why you think N9 sold over 2.2 Mio devices in Q1. I do not believe we can be "pretty sure" that N9 outsold Lumias in Q1. I just don not see any substantiating number for this assumption.

To add a story: I am in the market to replace my N900. I will not consider any Nokia product as long as Elop is on the helm. I looked at many devices and the 64GB N9 is the device that would fit my needs best. Still, it will be an Android pretty soon for me. Not that a single person makes a difference, but I assume a few more people that used to like Nokia devices act in a similar way too. And that might add up.

Tomifan

Tomi, I just don't know where to even start.
In past you first took the N9 sales estimate from a single source and used it as a basis for a blog post. elm70 and "Yes Yes" already pointed out how wrong those figures are in the comments of the original post. karlim pointed that out with all the links and facts (again) as a comment to your "these steps or Nokia is no more" post. So did I. jiipee and elm70 did same here.
And you STILL repeatedly refer to that number as a proven fact!
And then worse, you use that number as a basis and do extrapolation from it. You should know that extrapolation is always making figures more exact than the original ones... ...and especially if the original ones are way off. I now present the sincere hope of all of your readers that you would NOT refere to this make-up figure in the future and use it as some solid fact as you have done previous times.

Then the Lumia figures. In your "How many Lumia sales" post you went to 600 000 units. Nokia said in Q1 results "over 1 million to date", so you quickly said that they are adding January to it. Fine. That needs to be over 400 000 units to get to "over 1 million", right? That means Nokia sold 1 600 000 Lumia devices during the last two months of Q1! Could you perhaps assume your original 600 was not accurate instead of still refering to it as solid figure?

Those two cases just take off all the base from your numbers. Sorry, Tomi. I know you love the numbers and they are your buddies. I would love to say that "numbers do not lie" but unfortunately they do, if they are made up, miscalculated or (as in this case) both.

Tomifan

Oh Tomi, when Samsung comes up with the Q1 results, could you please make a division between Samsung sales (How many Android, how many Bada, especially how many ICS and how many devices using outdated Android that will never be upgradeable)? Those numbers would be interesting and I would love to give you some positive feedback even once. ;-)

J. Aho

Good news for Mr Elops, he can resend the memo he sent about the burning platform and now he wouldn't be telling lies.

vladkr

@Prakriti:
Elop comes from one of the most reputed universities in Canada, that opens doors.

As for Boston Chicken as an example... I'm not sure it's a good point as the company increased its debt while he was CIO, before finally filing for bankruptcy.

He also left a bitter taste at Juniper and ruined Macromedia in 2005...

Why no one asks Finnish government to intervene to save Nokia?

Because Finland is a democracy, unlike Canada, which only used to be
-> Government illegal intervention to break Air Canada Canada-Post strikes are not exactly a good example of democracy...
neither is the fact of obtaining adopting thanks to Canada's PM, knowing all difficulties a Polish mom had to get compensations/apologies after RCMP killed her son.
In such cases, countries like Russia, Italy, Spain... are fingered, in Canada apparently it's normal.

So no doubt Elop is brilliant on working on his own wealth and his own interests. In ruling companies, he's just a piece of junk.

Just for fun:
http://www.readwriteweb.com/enterprise/2011/09/the-five-worst-ceos-in-tech.php

http://www.siliconbeat.com/2008/01/11/microsoft-beware-stephen-elop-is-a-flight-risk/

Louis

A pink Lumia for girls has been announced, showing that Elop understands segmentation.

http://www.theverge.com/2012/4/25/2973815/lumia-900-magenta-nokia-finland-release-date-rumor

Sander van der Wal

What's wrong with these figures for Lumia? 300% growth in Europe, 200% in APAC. Selling in less area's than the N9 and selling only 10% less. The N9 has a similar growth rate in Latin America and MEA, but with much lower volumes. Growth in other regions is tiny. Lumia isn't growing as fast as the original iPhone, but the difference is small, not an order of magnitude.

Much to early to call this a fail, or a succes.

Also, remember that an SDK for iPhone took a year to materialize. Developers are waiting to see whether it will continue to grow. If it does it will attract more developers.

DS

I'm afraid it's way too late for stock N9 to make a difference. I've looked at my country local ebay equivalent and you can easily encounter barely used N9s at unbelievable prices (say $200-$250 range). The EOL announcement has killed its desirability and seeing Lumia ads everywhere worn off its novelty and design uniqueness factor. The hardware will be laughable when Galaxy S3 shows up next week.
Nokia could try to move some of them but I don't believe they could fully compensate for Lumia failure. On the other hand some cash is better than no cash, but unless they have HW running Maemo that matches GS 3 or One S and has 41mpx goodness, I don't know.

huohuoho

LOL @ N9 selling over 2 milli. How can it be if Nokia hasn't even produced that many N9s??

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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