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« Paging Truth Police: One Last Time - the Reality of Nokia when CEO Elop Took Charge as CEO, and What Was Not Broken | Main | Digital Jamboree Continues: Now Apple Q1 - iPhone sells 35M Units, drops to 22% Market Share (Corrected) »

April 24, 2012

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Qt_fan

@Baron95
Please stop referring to this ecosystems crap. The world is not the USA, Nokia's income doesn't come from the USA, Nokia is not Apple.
XBox Live? iTunes? Cloud storage? Spotify? Netflix? Hulu? This crap doesn't mean anything to most of the world.
+USD600 devices? Spending 50-200 dollars on services per month?

-Elop's worst move
Nokia focused to much on producing and marketing a phone to clash directly with the iPhone and in the same markets. While managing at the same time to give the finger to all their partners and customers. Apple is a totally different beast from Samsung/Nokia/others, trying to confront Apple in the same playing field will fail(single device, expensive, bad carrier relationship).

-My unscientific biased personal market research
For the Lumia, Nokia bought nearly half of the ad space of Sao Paulo's metro(3,6M people/day), and yet I haven't spotted a single Lumia. I see a LOT a Nokia qwerty devices, and yet Nokia didn't spend a penny on Asha ads. Independent stores seems to be pushing these qwerty on the low end, and Samsung on the mid and high.

-WinPho and Nokia will be killed by Samsung
Since everybody is trying to predict the future :P, I'm going to take a shot too.
Samsung simply hates WinPho. They were forced to produce it, they can't use most of their own components on it, they can't leverage any of their tech in WinPho, they pay MS for every Android device. Samsung relationship with MS, is that of a business owner with a mafioso.
(My prediction) Samsung will introduce with strength WinPho mobiles at the same time Nokia's makes it's next big launch, just to fracture the buzz and sales. Effectively killing Nokia(if Nokia survives that long). After that Samsung goes back to giving the least amount of effort to WinPho required by contract.

Samsung is focusing on the world and not just the US, they go through extreme lengths to adapt their devices to every market (Did you know they've managed to cram a TV antenna in a Galaxy S?). They produce a diverse lineup for every market's need.
Samsung is using the strategy Nokia would have been successful with. Elop gave the world in a silver platter to Samsung.

Eurofan

@Bl0wfish: Thanks. I agree with all of your points %100.

@Qt_fan: I think your hypothesis about Samsung's plans makes sense. But fragmentation of WP8 sales between vendors won't doom Nokia. WP8 itself is Nokia's doom. WP has no appeal, no traction, anywhere. The current reception of WP7.5 is proof of that. No one gets excited by Live Tiles, Metro, IE, Bing, Zune, and pseudo Office on a smartphone. No one, anywhere.

Of course operators want a third ecosystem, even a fourth. That doesn't mean they want Microsoft, no matter what they profess.

Nokia is in a very weakened position after just five quarters of Elop: declining sales, declining ASPs, mounting losses, and very reduced software development resources. It needs to keep adjustments to its course manageable for the Board to adopt until the Board finds the backbone to see what the rest of us can see: WP has already failed, is failing and will fail, with or without Nokia. Live Tiles and Metro don't make of IE, Bing, Zune and (newly operator friendly) Skype a viable smartphone OS no matter which Microsoft kernel they run on. No matter how many apps Microsoft buys for WP, when those apps don't run as well as iOS or Android apps with the same titles, customers notice. Meanwhile W8 will fail on the desktop because it is a gimmick and a hinderance to efficiency as every dispassionate review of W8 beta has concluded. Microsoft will try again with a new team and a new name after W8/WP8/W8RT, we can be sure of that.

The most basic question I keep coming away with after reading Tomi's blog entries: Which phone makes more profit for Nokia per sale, the N9, the Lumia 900, the Lumia 800, the Lumia 710? Which phone currently sells most units on a monthly basis (so that we aren't comparing only first week of sales), the N9, the Lumia 900, the Lumia 800, the Lumia 710? Answer, we don't know because Nokia won't reveal its internal figures. But the Board could demand to know the answer to these questions and from everything I've read, including Tomi's blog site, its pretty clear to me the N9 is still selling in China today and elsewhere today profitably for Nokia for multiples of the ASP of any Lumia phone. This is after being given an EOL pronouncement by Elop just after its introduction and now with the software frozen forever somewhere between v1.2 and v1.3.

A Microsoft powered line of smartphones has been a failed project of Microsoft since 2002 and is failing now. WP's share of smartphone new sales across all makers and all markets continues to decline month to month including last month despite the WP project laying waste to Nokia and despite HTC WP phones not being appreciably any worse or less current than Nokia's offerings. Maybe Nokia stock will fall to $3 after Q2 results come out. Maybe that will be enough to get Elop fired. At least Nokia needs to preserve a plan B in the smartphone space. Sales of the N9 unsubsidized, unembargoed, with the availability of a Whatsapp app, would pay for continued improvement of Harmattan. After Q1 2013 when Elop's WP universe comes crashing down...

st7761

Drivers are not important. Because past samsung symbian phone used QCOM chipset in baseband(you can see it through FCC).
And certainly there are symbian support AP. Renesas SH-Mobile G4 and AG5 which are used in japan feature phones.

st7761

I think Symbian is not for HighEnd phone, but it has competitive in LowEnd. It can compete with samsung wave phones(which powered by BADA OS) and Galaxy y, Galaxy mini, Galaxy ace.

Tomi T Ahonen

Just to Qt_fan

You made my day! I was laughing hysterically with that line about Samsung relationship with Microsoft being that of business man and mafioso. I laughed so hard, I haven't laughed that hard for weeks. I Tweeted it immediately referring to you Qt_fan and if you want to identify yourself in email to me so I can follow you on TW etc, you are my BFF haha, that was priceless. Tony Soprano meets Smartphone Maker. Oh my gosh, that was so funny. Obgigado!

To all others, keep the discussion going, I will return soon with more replies and comments.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

cycnus

@st7761

lol,
OK, I rephrase my statement.
Yes, **CURRENT Symbian LINEUP** can FIGHT in LOW end smartphone such as in US$ 90 - US$ 150 devices.

But right now, the one that comparable to competitor @ that price, were systematically priced it in US$ 180 - US$ 250 by Elop. Thus making Symbian looks undesirable.

To answer @Tomi Ahonen again

Yes, symbian can fight in that very low price range, but if nokia don't have anything to fill at the mid-top range, wouldn't their brand name / prestige will go down?

How long before the competitor (samsung, HTC, Sony, LG) raise the bar again? Android were very scalable offering devices made from Single to Dual to Quad core. and nokia RIGHT NOW don't have any engineer left to develop for future as it's already sent to gulag by Elop.

cycnus

@Qt_fan,

I guess that's what everybody things when they heard the name microsoft, thus microsoft is not succeeding in WP. Because in Desktop Windows were too dominant, and there is small people want to adventure to the other side of the system (btw, I use Ubuntu). But in Phone and tablet where you don't have to use Microsoft, everybody is trying to avoid Microsoft.

J. Aho

Nokia could survive as a one man company, just harvest licence money for others to use it's brand name, sure they still could get a bit or revenue for all the patents too, but it seems quite unlikely that Nokia will be in the cellphone market, I bet that Ericsson will make new cellphones far before than Nokia regains market shares.

RobDK

Tomi says "The future of the handset industry is smartphones."

This is not true!

The future is Mobile Computing.

This was the paradigm shift that Apple brought to the market in the iPhone: a portable computer with a mobile phone in it. In this model, software is dominating, and here Silicon Valley wins hands down.

Nokia has always, and still is, thinking that a smartphone is a mobile phone with internet features added. They are behind the curve and without the core competencies to move forward.

Lisa

@Tomi

I too have always loved Nokia and their products. I was a proud owner of numerous early Nokia phones, and the proudest owner of the might N95-1. In fact, I believe so strongly AGAINST the Microsoft Muppet, I went through many a back channel to become the proud owner of the magnificent white Nokia N9 in the US! BEFORE (and with knowledge of) Lumia launch on AT&T. My desperation for the return of the company I have followed and drooled over for over a decade runs deep. I share your passion in Elop's departure, and believe in your proposed recovery roadmap. I simply CANNOT fathom WHY/HOW that man is still holding his position at the top of Nokia.

There is one really nagging question that I cannot seem to find an answer for, nor any piece of information addressing this 800lb gorilla in the room...

What the hell kind of 'miracle product' could Elop POSSIBLY be promissing the board and its investors for release early 2013 that would DELUDE them into KEEPING this MORON on board any LONGER, and to tolerate losses in such HISTORIC proportions?!?!?

This product MUST be the new 'Jesusphone' if it is capable of shielding their eyes from facing the FACTS and actually LOOKING at the numerous losses being reported DAILY by the juggernauts of the tech industry (yourself included)!

Looking at what Nokia did with the 808 PureView, I'd be willing to bet (and believe they did already say) this camera sensor will present itself in the unrevealed/developing Windows 'miracle product' (NO surprise there), but what else would make it leaps and bounds the savior of Nokia in it's rapidly plunging Elop era? There really isn't much that would SHOCK the industry into abandoning Samsung, Apple, etc. Yet, somehow this promise is enough to allow the Muppet to keep betting the house on Microsoft (royalty payments aside)? The hush, hush of investors is annoying! SOMEBODY has to speak up who has invested millions in this company! Am I missing some article at the end of the internet somewhere? Any thoughts? Speculations? ANYTHING?

Thanks Tomi! Keep up the great work...I am a huge fan.

nook

Karma for selling spying telco equipment to the repressive government like IRAN? Or a scheme to make Nokia more cheaper to be bought over by Microsoft?

Lisa

@RobDK

If you truly believe the iphone is a mobile computer...I'm sorry to tell you that you are HORRIBLY mistaken. You sound like every other Apple fanboy out there! As a student, there is NO possible way an iphone would be able to keep up with the demands of my studies. Not to mention the COUNTLESS compatibility issues I have trying to download lecture notes on my CURRENT gen ipod, let alone the issues other classmates have on their ipad 2's as well.

Nothing beats having an ACTUAL computer (be it laptop, desktop, or netbook)...believe me, I've tried. As convenient and easy it would be to have such a device (given the sheer amount of books I have to lug around), I just don't believe this will happen anytime in the near future. At least in a manner that would be cost-effective to us tight budgeted students ;)

elm70

@Lisa:

Elop, also known as eFlop, is the trojan horse of Microsoft.
It has been appointed by Capital Group and Dodge the two mayor Nokia share holder (over 10%).
These funds, now with JP (now they have over 15% of Nokia) have the main interest to protect their American assets, mainly the Microsoft asset.
After the bold failure of Windows Phone, the platform was on fire, yes Windows Phone, and Microsoft have been close to be out of the mobile world, and with the convergence technologies that you see with Apple and Google, Microsoft will be soon out of business also on their mayor cash-cow : Windows for PC.
In this dramatic situation for Ballmer and Microsoft, the puppet had to be activated, eFlop issue the memo, everybody knows that it will destroy Nokia, but this bold message was needed for save Windows Phone and Microsoft.
eFlop made countless actions against Nokia, only Tomi can keep the count of it ... still nobody did put him under question.
Yes, Nokia is today in the hands of Microsoft, I think it is illegal, but law in Finland don't help much.
People in Finland are still believing in Santa Klaus, that's explain why Finns Press and Finns people have been accepting the "verb" from eFlop, and did believe that Microsoft will have helped Microsoft, actually is Nokia that is self killing for support Microsoft.

Tomi, like to speak about mobile blood war ... yes, at the end there is and will be lot of Finns blood left on this war. The American did win !

Tchuss

e_lm_70

ps: Yes, I use extreme cases, but all the facts support what is written above, yes, people will reply that this is a fantasy plot, plot don't exist, etc etc ... but ... knowing who is controlling Nokia, you understand why the worst ever CEO has not been fired already after his mad memo did leak back in 2011

ste

@Lisa
When I was a student I heard the same about laptops.
The generation before heard the same about personal computers.
And before about mini computers.

Read Clayton Christensen.

Qt_fan

@TomiAhonen
I'm sorry but I can't take credit for that analogy. People have been using it since the Microsoft's FUD campaign against anyone that comes near Linux. I'm glad you liked, we laugh so we don't cry :( About the TW, you won't find anything interesting in it, I have done a single tweet "Wtf is Twitter good for?" I've been on Twitter on the last few days just to see what you were up to.

About the FUD campaign, it started in 2007 I think. MS tried to blackmail a bunch of companies just for using Linux(even if they just used it in internal servers), they said they had a couple dousend undisclosed on Linux. Most companies did pay without even knowing what the patents were about.
Dramatization: A MS representative in a nice italian suit goes to some Fortune500 company, and leans over a Linux server rack. "You have some nice servers here, it'd be a shame if something bad were to happen to them. I have a couple dozen of patents in this suitcase, but I'm gonna be nice with you. You just give me a suitcase filled with 100 dollars bills, and I'll nicely walk away."

Later they've played that game with every mobile manufacturer, and on top they had to produce WinPhos. Motorola the only one that refused...
Plain and simple, manufactures are making WinPhos at gunpoint.


@Eurofan, cycnus
I've only said the final death blow to any hope for WinPho(and Nokia), will be from Samsung.
The main reasons WinPho failed: can't offer anything over android/ios, ignoring WinMo and current customers, hardware restrictions(Samsung and Nokia can't use their on tech!), no advantages for carriers. Just look at WinPho product lineup, manufactures are just waiting for it to die.
nufactures are just waiting for it to die.

ds

@RobDk You may be right now that Elop laid most of engineers that created that competence but you forget that Nokia have been producing mobile computers, for 10 years now starting with communicators through nokia n900 (a phone that has most core computing DNA in it among all competition) and ending with Maemo6 + swipe, a device that successfully combined best parts of IOS, WP and Android. In os building Nokia runs circles around all its HW competitors.

Poifan

It's truly a strange reseller boycott when the two largest carriers in the US have publicly backed Windows Phone so emphatically: http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-04-24/apple-s-dominance-has-carriers-cheering-for-nokia-windows-phone

Yes, yes, I know we live a in mobile backwater here the US where we've had to suffer at being the first users of iPhones, Android, PalmOS, and Windows Phone. I simply cannot wait for those hot Japanese uber phones to make it to our dismal shores and set us free.

Tomifan

Ignoring the fact that N900 has single-touch display that can't run Harmattan MeeGo, ignoring the fact that N950 is not in commercial shape (you Tomi even admitted that yourself when answering to my comment), reusing the certainly invalid sales figure of N9 originally stated by two COMMENTERS in a public website...
I'm done. We try to correct your biggest mistakes Tomi but you repeat them. And you quoted it correctly: I would fill definition of stupidity by continuing to correct you. You fill it by using same faulty data over and over again.

Earendil Star

I believe things have turned so bad for Nokia, worse than anybody expected (apart from Tomi, who had predicted this on February 12, 2011), that even the tech / gadget sites that would have normally supported WP (and consequently Nokia) are now starting to depict how dire the actual situation really is.

Probably they now think that things are too sour to go on with the marketing BS requested by MS.

While, until now, Nokia was seen as the "first true WP" (which was clearly a lie, because it was no better nor worse than similar WPs, since WP offers only little space for customisation), now even Cnet and ZDNet are starting to report things differently.

One article was quoted by cycnus (http://crave.cnet.co.uk/mobiles/nokias-windows-phone-bear-hug-is-choking-the-mighty-finn-50007750/), but others abound, even in US sites, traditionally more loyal to MS. As an example the following:
https://www.zdnet.com/blog/cell-phones/htc-beats-nokia-in-the-camera-game-with-the-titan-ii-review-gallery/7478
The author states that the Lumia 900 camera is underwhelming compared to HTC's Titan WP.

Reality is finally being percieved: the choice of WP "only", for Nokia, was sheer folly. Because of WP, Nokia cannot exploit many bleeding edge technologies (available on Symbian), simply because WP is not ready for them. Therefore, an underwhelming camera on the Lumia 900.

Being Nokia at 7% market share, even if all this translated to Lumias (which won't) isn't good news to MS. So MS will start pushing again on other OEMs (such as Samsung), putting the final nail in Nokia's coffin.
In other words, even if THT Elop were not still a MS employee (which he is), putting one's destiny in the hands of a third party (MS) was a totally crazy idea. The moment the third party's interests start to diverge (which will be happening soon), you are lost.

Of course, reality is much worse. MS jumped on the Nokia pray, infiltrated it with THT Elop, and tried to get the most out of it. Initially, the idea was to have a strong market share (at the time Nokia was still n.1 worldwide) plus the goodies (Navteq, patents, know-how in mobile, etc.). Now, after THT Elop's strategy backfired (or rather was only partially successful, in that it zapped Symbian/Maemo/Meego, i.e. the real third ecosystem and a competitor to WP, but was unable to transform this in WP sales), MS is now contenting itself with a small market share increase and the goodies. Not too bad for MS anyway.

What about WP8? First it's not there yet. Secondly, it will be based on a different technology, and transition will be a mess. No-one knows if current phones will be upgradeable, and developers will most likely have to re-write most apps. And when it will be there, Nokia will probably be a low single digit market share player, if still alive.

Summarising: a total, utter, complete, absolute and abismal debacle (again, mainly for Nokia, but a bit even for MS).

Now, I would expect to see the trolls having welcomed THT Elop as Nokia's saviour to admit they were totally wrong.
But, as usual, they won't. Reality is not their cup of tea.

Tomi T Ahonen

To all in this thread

There are two significant updates to this story (I have added them to the bottom of the blog article). First, ex Nokia SVP Lee Williams has given a long interview about Nokia smartphones and Elop's strategy. His opinion is quite brutal, his interview has many very revealing details.

Secondly, Nokia just won the British design & advertising 'Oscars'. Lumia 800 was entered, didn't win. Winner was N9 (beat out iPad 2 etc). And sad truth, N9 is not sold in the UK. How bizarre is that? How incredibly good do you have to be, to win a national award where your product isn't even sold in that country.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

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