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« Paging Truth Police: One Last Time - the Reality of Nokia when CEO Elop Took Charge as CEO, and What Was Not Broken | Main | Digital Jamboree Continues: Now Apple Q1 - iPhone sells 35M Units, drops to 22% Market Share (Corrected) »

April 24, 2012

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cycnus

@st7761

lol,
OK, I rephrase my statement.
Yes, **CURRENT Symbian LINEUP** can FIGHT in LOW end smartphone such as in US$ 90 - US$ 150 devices.

But right now, the one that comparable to competitor @ that price, were systematically priced it in US$ 180 - US$ 250 by Elop. Thus making Symbian looks undesirable.

To answer @Tomi Ahonen again

Yes, symbian can fight in that very low price range, but if nokia don't have anything to fill at the mid-top range, wouldn't their brand name / prestige will go down?

How long before the competitor (samsung, HTC, Sony, LG) raise the bar again? Android were very scalable offering devices made from Single to Dual to Quad core. and nokia RIGHT NOW don't have any engineer left to develop for future as it's already sent to gulag by Elop.

cycnus

@Qt_fan,

I guess that's what everybody things when they heard the name microsoft, thus microsoft is not succeeding in WP. Because in Desktop Windows were too dominant, and there is small people want to adventure to the other side of the system (btw, I use Ubuntu). But in Phone and tablet where you don't have to use Microsoft, everybody is trying to avoid Microsoft.

J. Aho

Nokia could survive as a one man company, just harvest licence money for others to use it's brand name, sure they still could get a bit or revenue for all the patents too, but it seems quite unlikely that Nokia will be in the cellphone market, I bet that Ericsson will make new cellphones far before than Nokia regains market shares.

RobDK

Tomi says "The future of the handset industry is smartphones."

This is not true!

The future is Mobile Computing.

This was the paradigm shift that Apple brought to the market in the iPhone: a portable computer with a mobile phone in it. In this model, software is dominating, and here Silicon Valley wins hands down.

Nokia has always, and still is, thinking that a smartphone is a mobile phone with internet features added. They are behind the curve and without the core competencies to move forward.

Lisa

@Tomi

I too have always loved Nokia and their products. I was a proud owner of numerous early Nokia phones, and the proudest owner of the might N95-1. In fact, I believe so strongly AGAINST the Microsoft Muppet, I went through many a back channel to become the proud owner of the magnificent white Nokia N9 in the US! BEFORE (and with knowledge of) Lumia launch on AT&T. My desperation for the return of the company I have followed and drooled over for over a decade runs deep. I share your passion in Elop's departure, and believe in your proposed recovery roadmap. I simply CANNOT fathom WHY/HOW that man is still holding his position at the top of Nokia.

There is one really nagging question that I cannot seem to find an answer for, nor any piece of information addressing this 800lb gorilla in the room...

What the hell kind of 'miracle product' could Elop POSSIBLY be promissing the board and its investors for release early 2013 that would DELUDE them into KEEPING this MORON on board any LONGER, and to tolerate losses in such HISTORIC proportions?!?!?

This product MUST be the new 'Jesusphone' if it is capable of shielding their eyes from facing the FACTS and actually LOOKING at the numerous losses being reported DAILY by the juggernauts of the tech industry (yourself included)!

Looking at what Nokia did with the 808 PureView, I'd be willing to bet (and believe they did already say) this camera sensor will present itself in the unrevealed/developing Windows 'miracle product' (NO surprise there), but what else would make it leaps and bounds the savior of Nokia in it's rapidly plunging Elop era? There really isn't much that would SHOCK the industry into abandoning Samsung, Apple, etc. Yet, somehow this promise is enough to allow the Muppet to keep betting the house on Microsoft (royalty payments aside)? The hush, hush of investors is annoying! SOMEBODY has to speak up who has invested millions in this company! Am I missing some article at the end of the internet somewhere? Any thoughts? Speculations? ANYTHING?

Thanks Tomi! Keep up the great work...I am a huge fan.

nook

Karma for selling spying telco equipment to the repressive government like IRAN? Or a scheme to make Nokia more cheaper to be bought over by Microsoft?

Lisa

@RobDK

If you truly believe the iphone is a mobile computer...I'm sorry to tell you that you are HORRIBLY mistaken. You sound like every other Apple fanboy out there! As a student, there is NO possible way an iphone would be able to keep up with the demands of my studies. Not to mention the COUNTLESS compatibility issues I have trying to download lecture notes on my CURRENT gen ipod, let alone the issues other classmates have on their ipad 2's as well.

Nothing beats having an ACTUAL computer (be it laptop, desktop, or netbook)...believe me, I've tried. As convenient and easy it would be to have such a device (given the sheer amount of books I have to lug around), I just don't believe this will happen anytime in the near future. At least in a manner that would be cost-effective to us tight budgeted students ;)

elm70

@Lisa:

Elop, also known as eFlop, is the trojan horse of Microsoft.
It has been appointed by Capital Group and Dodge the two mayor Nokia share holder (over 10%).
These funds, now with JP (now they have over 15% of Nokia) have the main interest to protect their American assets, mainly the Microsoft asset.
After the bold failure of Windows Phone, the platform was on fire, yes Windows Phone, and Microsoft have been close to be out of the mobile world, and with the convergence technologies that you see with Apple and Google, Microsoft will be soon out of business also on their mayor cash-cow : Windows for PC.
In this dramatic situation for Ballmer and Microsoft, the puppet had to be activated, eFlop issue the memo, everybody knows that it will destroy Nokia, but this bold message was needed for save Windows Phone and Microsoft.
eFlop made countless actions against Nokia, only Tomi can keep the count of it ... still nobody did put him under question.
Yes, Nokia is today in the hands of Microsoft, I think it is illegal, but law in Finland don't help much.
People in Finland are still believing in Santa Klaus, that's explain why Finns Press and Finns people have been accepting the "verb" from eFlop, and did believe that Microsoft will have helped Microsoft, actually is Nokia that is self killing for support Microsoft.

Tomi, like to speak about mobile blood war ... yes, at the end there is and will be lot of Finns blood left on this war. The American did win !

Tchuss

e_lm_70

ps: Yes, I use extreme cases, but all the facts support what is written above, yes, people will reply that this is a fantasy plot, plot don't exist, etc etc ... but ... knowing who is controlling Nokia, you understand why the worst ever CEO has not been fired already after his mad memo did leak back in 2011

ste

@Lisa
When I was a student I heard the same about laptops.
The generation before heard the same about personal computers.
And before about mini computers.

Read Clayton Christensen.

Qt_fan

@TomiAhonen
I'm sorry but I can't take credit for that analogy. People have been using it since the Microsoft's FUD campaign against anyone that comes near Linux. I'm glad you liked, we laugh so we don't cry :( About the TW, you won't find anything interesting in it, I have done a single tweet "Wtf is Twitter good for?" I've been on Twitter on the last few days just to see what you were up to.

About the FUD campaign, it started in 2007 I think. MS tried to blackmail a bunch of companies just for using Linux(even if they just used it in internal servers), they said they had a couple dousend undisclosed on Linux. Most companies did pay without even knowing what the patents were about.
Dramatization: A MS representative in a nice italian suit goes to some Fortune500 company, and leans over a Linux server rack. "You have some nice servers here, it'd be a shame if something bad were to happen to them. I have a couple dozen of patents in this suitcase, but I'm gonna be nice with you. You just give me a suitcase filled with 100 dollars bills, and I'll nicely walk away."

Later they've played that game with every mobile manufacturer, and on top they had to produce WinPhos. Motorola the only one that refused...
Plain and simple, manufactures are making WinPhos at gunpoint.


@Eurofan, cycnus
I've only said the final death blow to any hope for WinPho(and Nokia), will be from Samsung.
The main reasons WinPho failed: can't offer anything over android/ios, ignoring WinMo and current customers, hardware restrictions(Samsung and Nokia can't use their on tech!), no advantages for carriers. Just look at WinPho product lineup, manufactures are just waiting for it to die.
nufactures are just waiting for it to die.

ds

@RobDk You may be right now that Elop laid most of engineers that created that competence but you forget that Nokia have been producing mobile computers, for 10 years now starting with communicators through nokia n900 (a phone that has most core computing DNA in it among all competition) and ending with Maemo6 + swipe, a device that successfully combined best parts of IOS, WP and Android. In os building Nokia runs circles around all its HW competitors.

Poifan

It's truly a strange reseller boycott when the two largest carriers in the US have publicly backed Windows Phone so emphatically: http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-04-24/apple-s-dominance-has-carriers-cheering-for-nokia-windows-phone

Yes, yes, I know we live a in mobile backwater here the US where we've had to suffer at being the first users of iPhones, Android, PalmOS, and Windows Phone. I simply cannot wait for those hot Japanese uber phones to make it to our dismal shores and set us free.

Tomifan

Ignoring the fact that N900 has single-touch display that can't run Harmattan MeeGo, ignoring the fact that N950 is not in commercial shape (you Tomi even admitted that yourself when answering to my comment), reusing the certainly invalid sales figure of N9 originally stated by two COMMENTERS in a public website...
I'm done. We try to correct your biggest mistakes Tomi but you repeat them. And you quoted it correctly: I would fill definition of stupidity by continuing to correct you. You fill it by using same faulty data over and over again.

Earendil Star

I believe things have turned so bad for Nokia, worse than anybody expected (apart from Tomi, who had predicted this on February 12, 2011), that even the tech / gadget sites that would have normally supported WP (and consequently Nokia) are now starting to depict how dire the actual situation really is.

Probably they now think that things are too sour to go on with the marketing BS requested by MS.

While, until now, Nokia was seen as the "first true WP" (which was clearly a lie, because it was no better nor worse than similar WPs, since WP offers only little space for customisation), now even Cnet and ZDNet are starting to report things differently.

One article was quoted by cycnus (http://crave.cnet.co.uk/mobiles/nokias-windows-phone-bear-hug-is-choking-the-mighty-finn-50007750/), but others abound, even in US sites, traditionally more loyal to MS. As an example the following:
https://www.zdnet.com/blog/cell-phones/htc-beats-nokia-in-the-camera-game-with-the-titan-ii-review-gallery/7478
The author states that the Lumia 900 camera is underwhelming compared to HTC's Titan WP.

Reality is finally being percieved: the choice of WP "only", for Nokia, was sheer folly. Because of WP, Nokia cannot exploit many bleeding edge technologies (available on Symbian), simply because WP is not ready for them. Therefore, an underwhelming camera on the Lumia 900.

Being Nokia at 7% market share, even if all this translated to Lumias (which won't) isn't good news to MS. So MS will start pushing again on other OEMs (such as Samsung), putting the final nail in Nokia's coffin.
In other words, even if THT Elop were not still a MS employee (which he is), putting one's destiny in the hands of a third party (MS) was a totally crazy idea. The moment the third party's interests start to diverge (which will be happening soon), you are lost.

Of course, reality is much worse. MS jumped on the Nokia pray, infiltrated it with THT Elop, and tried to get the most out of it. Initially, the idea was to have a strong market share (at the time Nokia was still n.1 worldwide) plus the goodies (Navteq, patents, know-how in mobile, etc.). Now, after THT Elop's strategy backfired (or rather was only partially successful, in that it zapped Symbian/Maemo/Meego, i.e. the real third ecosystem and a competitor to WP, but was unable to transform this in WP sales), MS is now contenting itself with a small market share increase and the goodies. Not too bad for MS anyway.

What about WP8? First it's not there yet. Secondly, it will be based on a different technology, and transition will be a mess. No-one knows if current phones will be upgradeable, and developers will most likely have to re-write most apps. And when it will be there, Nokia will probably be a low single digit market share player, if still alive.

Summarising: a total, utter, complete, absolute and abismal debacle (again, mainly for Nokia, but a bit even for MS).

Now, I would expect to see the trolls having welcomed THT Elop as Nokia's saviour to admit they were totally wrong.
But, as usual, they won't. Reality is not their cup of tea.

Tomi T Ahonen

To all in this thread

There are two significant updates to this story (I have added them to the bottom of the blog article). First, ex Nokia SVP Lee Williams has given a long interview about Nokia smartphones and Elop's strategy. His opinion is quite brutal, his interview has many very revealing details.

Secondly, Nokia just won the British design & advertising 'Oscars'. Lumia 800 was entered, didn't win. Winner was N9 (beat out iPad 2 etc). And sad truth, N9 is not sold in the UK. How bizarre is that? How incredibly good do you have to be, to win a national award where your product isn't even sold in that country.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Etaster

To permit a turnaround to occur, the Board has to conserve cash and cancel the dividend. In a few days the tale will be told.

elm70

@Etaster

Dividend is plan for 3rd of May ... how can it be cancel NOW ?

zlutor

@Etaster: that would be a real killer news for the stocks!
elm700 is right. Too late now...

PlatformWarrior

Jorma Ollila said this week on Finnish television that Elop still has his full support. Next week he will step out from the board of directors after working 26 years for the company. His successor will not have an easy job to save the company.

xxx

To be honest, Nokia can still survive if it manages itself well and makes no more big mistakes along the way.

The decision to go with WinPho due to ecosystem has been made and not wise to undo as it creates more confusion, uncertainty and definitely writing off previous and current product lines. Decisions like these would kill Nokia.

Good decisions would be fine the right people, hire them, and make products that people want. Know your competitors, know how to take the fight and when to take the fall. Most importantly, don't go against the market ^.^

To be honest, I don't mind working for Nokia because I believe they can still be something. They won't be as successful as in the past, and definitely, they won't be brand names that nobody has ever heard of today.

xxx

bjarneh

to revert from the WinPhone path now would be something Microsoft would fight hard. it would practically state that Microsoft is so undesirable it's impossible to sell. (that would be the markets reaction at least if Nokia was to drop them now).

i do however agree with most of what you say, the only way back to profit is to forget that whole Elop thing ever happened, and continue as planned with Meego/Maemo forwards. they have the devices (i have it as well) and Meego is excellent, they fired most of the team though, but you could hire new developers (it's a commodity like CEO's)

Tomifan

@TomiAhonen please make a blog about this obvious fact:
As Bjarneh just said, it would be huge credibility loss for WP if Nokia would jump off from Windows ecosystem. With current stock price, neither Elop or Nokia BOD can't even hint such thing or Microsoft will immediately step in and buy Nokia. Independent Nokia praising WP is a gift from heavens to Microsoft, but if it comes to that, MS owned OEM Nokia is worth more to them than independent Nokia that switched away from WP.

Earendil Star

Credibility loss by ditching WP?

First, Nokia has become totally incredible in the way it's being run.
So, no, credibility is not an issue any longer.

Second, is it better to insist with a terrible OS, which furthermore does not sell (MS has never been good at mobile software, sorry folks...), or to realize the strategy is flawed and change course? Other tech companies have reacted much faster when it became clear their strategies -at least apparently- were failing (e.g. HP)

Third, Nokia was pushed to compete on Apple's turf, while its success was based on completely different grounds.
The result has been the annihilation of Nokia, since the basis of its success until 2011 was zapped.

So, theoretically, the best thing for Nokia now would be to ditch THT Elop and his insane (for Nokia) WP strategy.
WP should not be necessarily zapped, but could be left for the US market.
And Nokia should revert to its old strategy (but with improved execution), which was much more similar to Samsung's current one.

Pratically, this will not happen. Nokia is trapped in MS' lethal embrace.
But forcing MS to acquire Nokia (or at least the smartphone unit) could be a reduction of losses for shareholders, as long as the price MS pays is adequate. So, not too bad of an outcome.

There are no alternatives. Nokia is now finnished. No way it can return to its old days.
Nokia is not run by a genius à la SJ, but by a mediocre executor of MS directives, THT Elop.

And by how things are devEloping, the day of reckoning will be coming sooner rather than later.

The result derives from the deeds of THT Elop.
Symbian / Maemo were zapped because WP had to be pushed. This cut Nokia's legs.
WP was rushed on mediocre (despite propaganda) Lumia phones, is ages behind its competition and has no appeal.
Come on, Apple is out with the iPhone 4s, Samsung now with the Galaxy Nexus, Note, SIII and ICS...
Even Huawey and others are outpacing Nokia with their Android offerings.
Meanwhile, prices of Symbian devices are kept too high for an OS, which was declared dead more than one year ago by THT Elop himself (great CEO, badmouthing his own products... one year before he was ready with an alternative. Oh, but he still works for MS? Ah, now I understand).

So, WP fantrolls, please stop the nonsense blabbering.
MS hijacked Nokia, (like for Samsung, in mafia style albeit in a different way), hoping to revive WP.
The result was underwhelming, and the secondary consequence will be the victim's death.

Just a last comment: I hope not all North American CEOs will be as successful with their companies as THT Elop was with Nokia.
Otherwise we might be witnessing a US economical demise.

Good night and good luck.

ds

@Earendil Star
This exceperpt from the review is very telling.
"It is not just the camera on the Titan II that impresses, but the camera software enhancements that HTC provides help push it past the Lumia 900. You will find panorama mode, burst mode, many different scene choices, red eye reduction, image stabilization, and more."

- Nokia brand associated leadership in cameraphones, one of its major selling points
- HTC phones (regardless of OS) usually tarnished bc of camera quality (not up to standards for premium smartphones)
- Nokia flagship that CEO pithed as compoany turnaround fails with HTC on photo abilities, huge humiliation (it would hurt less to suffer defeat from Apple or Samsung)
Reasons:
- Nokia has the technology (in fact it has tech that disrupts cameraphone, not touched by any competition)
- Nokia can't implement it on WP because of lack of former expertise, R'n'D on the plaform
- Stock windows phone camera functions lag behind competition (Android, Maemo and Symmbian)
- HTC has long (decade long) experience in programming and improving Windows CE from what MS delivers and manages to get its customizations on time
- MS promissed Nokia exclusive customizations but it's HTC that benefited from them. MS provided not enough support to Nokia

This is a primary evidence how choosing WP resulted in permanent damage to Nokia brand.

Tomifan

Earendil Star misunderstood my comment: it's not about if Nokia can afford ditching WP, it's about Microsoft who can't afford Nokia ditching WP.
It's not about credibility of Nokia if they ditch WP, it's about credibility of WP if it is ditched by third-largest smartphone manufacturer (and only manufacturer using WP as main OS).
Microsoft would rather buy Nokia than see course change to MeeGo. And with current stock price, they can.

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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