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March 22, 2012

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elm70

With all the respect, Maemo did not help much Nokia, and for MeeGo it is late now. How much traction it can get now?
1 Year ago it could have sense, but now after have been abandon by everybody, including Intel it is looking a dead path.

Windows Phone OS is/was the wrong answer for Nokia, as mention it implies a big gap compared to the Nokia Symbian users.
But Windows Phone 8 should be around the corner, it should be the first with Nokia collaboration, there is still a small hope that this will close the open gaps with Symbian, clearly, the OpenSource aspect of Symbian is a gap that it can't be ever close, but as shown by iOS it is not really looking a show stopper.

As said before, Nokia has no Plan B. And it is looking unfortunately that, Lumia with WP 7.5 are going to fail. The only survive hope is WP8. Nokia should already now announce that at least for Lumia 900, there will be a free upgrade to WP8 from Nokia, else it will be very hard to sell this phone even if AT&T will channel it.

More then MeeGo, the alternative of Nokia is Android. Actually if Samsung can handle Android, WP and Bada ... why Nokia can't do the same?
Magnificent will be to deliver a device like 808 PureView, and allow the end user to install Symbain or MeeGo or Android ... this will be give the end user freedom, and this will collect some new fan boys.

As well ... what Nokia need most, after the disaster communication of Elop on 11.2 and his mad burning platform, it is an army of fan buys.
The Nokia traditional customer has been left alone in the dark. So some new marketing and promotions need to be invented in Nokia independently by which OS strategy they will want to stick to.

So, lot of work to be done by Nokia for stay alive.

Unluckily the board and the CEO have been voted by the control share holders in the last 18 months. Who is controlling Nokia has his only interest to protect Microsoft ... and this means to do everything for let Plan A to success, even the bankrupt of Nokia is looking acceptable in their plan.

It would be needed a miracle that little and minor share holders of Nokia can "associate" and vote against Elop and the current board.
Anyhow, it is already 1 years too late ... and I think nothing will stop Elop and Microsoft now.

Tchuss

e_lm_70

Nilux

Tomi I think you are wrong. The new CEO is a criminal. I suggest you change your view.
He has an amazing ability to produce jaw-dropping sensations every time he opens the mouth. But I think that's because I, as a normal mortal with an average wage, cannot understand his uncomprehensive visions.
Great spirits have always encountered violent oppostion from mediocre minds. -Alber Einstein

AtTheBottomOfTheHilton

I'm not a Nokia shareholder but I would love to be present on the shareholders meeting just in order to get an idea how corrupt they are. Obviously the shareholders are infested with people who are there for American interests only and see the death of Nokia as an investment. I don't think you can make them change their minds. Unfortunately it is the smaller shareholders who is losing here.

What Stephen Elop is doing is illegal and should be stopped right now and the only way to do so is by legal means. Also the Finnish government should step in and abort what is going on because Nokia contributes something in order of 25% of the Finnish BNP, so there are a lot of jobs at stake here. Also by moving everything to USA, Finland will lose competence which in turn will further reduce the competitiveness of the country.

BTW. Can you name a single US company where the opposite has happened. Namely a European destruction of a US company?

Tomifan

Tomi, I have now officially lost my hope on you.
You are on right track there - Feb 11th was a communication failure of the century and Symbian should have needed more highlight in order to make smooth transition, but then:
You constantly ignore all the comments where people point out you using invalid numbers (or dismiss them with no better proof). Nokia official numbers don't show 1 to 3 comparison in Lumia vs. N9 sales. You took two estimates from the Web late last year, did not even try to find other sources backing them up and refer to them as proven fact ever since. Current readings show 1:1 at best.
I've pointed out multiple times that N950 is too immature and incompatible with N9 swipe UI (not Swype input) to be used as short or mid-term plan B. And here you go again.
AT&T sells Lumia. T-Mobile sells Lumia. Everybody yells against your face that "retail boycott of WP7" does not exist and problems lie at store clerk level if even there... And here we see you do that again. At least this time you did not claim X7 AT&T deal (after 3,5 year wasted efforts) as a success story.
Commenters have also tried to point out that Qt on WP7 is impossible (no native API) but for WP8 can be done as open source project without Nokia or Microsoft support. But you leave that unmentioned.
In short, I could save my time, make a Post-It saying "WP bad, MeeGo good, Elop incompetent, must be fired - NOW!" And read that every time you do a blog post.

gzost

It seems that increasingly, there is reality and then there is your view of Nokia.

In reality, Symbian is well on the way of being wound down. There are no new Symbian phones in the pipeline. There is especially no transition to newer SoCs that would be necessary to have these phones be competetive in the market. There doesn't seem to have been any effort to establish a lower cost platform for existing S60 5th edition either (big mistake in my opinion - I fully agree with you on this point). With lead times what they are in mobile phone development, this means that Symbian is dead.
In your view, Nokia could just do the impossible, i.e. revive Symbian now, and release competitive handsets immediately. (And, incidentally, weren't the long lead times for development one of your main arguments against the switch to WP7?)

In reality MeeGo has been abandoned by Intel, and had failed to garner major support before that. What Nokia released were two interesting phones that were somewhat MeeGo (not at the core), with no ecosystem to speak of. When you talk about the Windows Phone market being a failure compared to the Ovi Store, you should acknowledge that by any measure MeeGo fares far worse. Oh, and all the superphone features you rave about that Nokia should retain or bring back? N9: no replaceable battery, no microSD card, no HDMI out, no FM transmitter, and much worse camera than the N8. Why you consider all these huge problems with the Lumia phones, but not worthy of mentioning in connection with the N9 is a mystery. The N9 may have attracted a core audience of Nokia + open source fans, but there's little appeal to the broader market.
In your view: N9 is a superphone which magically overcomes all problems, and would be a worldwide hit despite there being no ecosystem to speak of.

These are just the two main points. Others?
Just to pick one: in which universe exactly is Nokia a leader in cloud services? I've been using Symbian for the past three years, and the only Nokia cloud service I ever used was Ovi Sync, for backing up my contacts. Ovi files never took of and has long been abandoned, the sharing service worked well but inexplicably got replaced by a new system which never connected to anything worthwhile, Ovi/Nokia mail is now run by Yahoo... Nokia doesn't have any cloud services anymore. The Ovi play failed spectacularly.

Per

@gzost

Intel is focusing on Tizen with Samsung, I think that system will have a lot in common with MeeGo. Samsung probably knows what a blunder Nokia has done and they are grateful for the market handed over to them.

Linux is the best ecosystem of all mobile phones.

Aniko - loyal Nokia client so far

As Nokia loyal (still yet) client I can only agree with diagnoses. I have bought Nokia N9 and want say as loud as possible: this is best Nokia mobile from last 10 years. It can be polished in some points, but in general still it is best Nokia phone from 10 years. I migrated to MeeGo and N9 from Symbian, and from then I always suggest all Symbianists to do the same, after my own experiences.
I will never allow Windows of any kind to be in my mobile, nor in my employees mobiles - neither current Lumia nor any future one, and shortly: I pay the bills and I do not need any more explanations about this. I just stated and communicated my irrevocable decision, that's all about Lumias now and in future. Eat this yourself mr CEO.
I treated always N950 as mobile for developers as I was told so, but idea this can be consumer product is quite interesting.
Wise CEO or wise board must also consider how to solve problem of lacking dual sim in both N9 and 808, with Lumia they can do what they want, I don't care. But for me most needed improvement for my N9 is dual sim or even triple sim version. I simply don't understand why having most sophisticated hardware taff I don't have one of most popular feature, just second popular to FM radio?? Why sophisticated smartphones don't have dual or triple sim cards? In MeeGo it can be done as I know relatively quite easy considering software. I have seen following during chat when the question about dual sim at MeeGo mobile was asked:
"(...) that's not a hw related thing, you could have multiple lines even with one physical SIM - dialer has to know how to deal with it(...)"
"(...)it'd be rather interesting to see how ofono, dialer etc are reacting to phonet0 and phonet1 (or whatever the names of the NIC devices on meego) both up and working same time(...)"
"(...)I'd think the maemo dialer (sorry for referring to that one here) would just offer 2 distinct GSM services in the top service selector"
"though in my book there's not much problems on a phonet arch. You just need to load the isi stack twice, and point it to the proper interfaces, then create two rtcom accounts(...)"
"(...)it seems the architecture should be mostly ready to deal with multisim. Any manufacturer considering to build a meego phone will not face and roadblocks to implement dual sim support on his meego adaption(...)"
"(...)as for now there's possibly GSM SIM and VoIP handled in same dialer. Another SIM would just be one more entry in a selector list(...)"
"(...) foe the dialer and call history and whatnot else it's no difference if the second "line" is SIP or another (second) SIM(...)"
"(...) create new account -> select SIP|gtalk|jabber|whatnot - you simply add GSM there, to create another GSM/SIM account rather than a SIP-VoIP account (...)"
This is cited chat, but not my knowledge. As I don't know if that person would like his nick to be mentioned here I have omitted all. I put this here in hope that someone will notice that in fact MeeGo is almost dual or triple sim ready, and in fact just a place for second sim is needed, and some upgrade of N9 system software. More then one sim card in mobile is normal and obvious in Asia and Europe, countries like China or Japan. So making N9 next version or just N9 successor double sim Nokia would create potential market hot hit like N9 or even bigger, and hence increase of sale. I still suppose CEO, Board and shareholders ought to be interested in.
And finally why I need to write about this here instead of share this idea with Nokia staff? I'd like to buy next N9 with double sim and want to discuss this. Instead I am constantly molested by Lumia marketing to try Lumia, but I have already tried and after I am not interested in any Lumia any more.
Above described the basics of idea how to improve MeeGo software to double or triple sim. I am perfectly sure N9 unibody can be adjusted for second sim or third even. And I wait for this, strongly!
And I totally don't care (speaking frankly and without using any inappropriate here words) what they will do with all that windows and Lumia scandalous compromitation.
I wanted to point what I need with next N9 incarnation, just in nearest months, not in 10 years. And I knew plenty Nokia clients agree with me about double sim at last.
I like idea of bigger screen, so bigger dimensions, like Lumia 900, will allow more place for more then only one sim card. And still Windows Lumia 900 is not any option for me, and it will not be changed nor negotiated Mr CEO, sane or insane – this is your problem and your shareholders.

gzost

@per - ALl we have for Tizen right not is an annoucement amounting to something, sometime. Where MeeGo for Nokia was supposed to be the main play, for Samsung it is currently just a way to get a new basis for Bada, and something to keep at hand should they ever decide to abandon Android.
Personally, I'd be extremely surprised if the Tizen project has any market impact.

dd

As person who has played around with N950 (using it as my main phone) and Lumia 800 (had it for testing): N950 wins. It's really just good phone that allows me to do anything with it. The only complain I have: battery life (that's because N950 is not using best component, e.g. no OLED screen, and that can be fixed). I overall hate SMS typing but since N950 has complete keyboard I love it (touchscreen just does not work for me). N950 needs some polish however (e.g. open twitter client with physical keyboard open). Still that's minor issues and I would buy N950 with better battery life (e.g. with OLED screen).

Lumia meanwhile is boring, limits me (as person and especially as developer) and even my wife does not like it.

As programmer who is working on various different technologies I must say I prefer Qt over MS tools. Qt is so much better - it might lack some fancy UI tools but control you have over what can be done is incomparable. I'm really waiting for Qt-capable feature phones. Smartphones are toys not work tools (while they can be in some specific cases, but tablets are more suitable for that).

AtTheBottomOfTheHilton

I think everybody is missing the point here. There is no doubt Nokia had/have problems. Their phone models were behind competitors in some areas. Nokia was the dominant mobile phone maker and was losing market share so indeed they had to be kicked out of their comfort zone.

Apple was in a similar position in the 90s but the company have stronger leadership and chose "death before dishonor", Nokia did the opposite. Today Apple is a dominant player again. Just because Nokia was in bad position doesn't mean it has to be a hostage under US corporate mafia with a company that is also failing. As I said earlier, name one US company where that Europeans has acquired in order to destroy it.

This situation is less about technical achievements of mobile phones makers and more about how Europe allows US corporates destroying European industries. This has already happened in other businesses like the automotive industry where US companies acquired European auto makers in order to put them out of business. Latest achievement for example is GM buying up Renault, and that is GM that was on the brink of bankruptcy a year ago which is now partially state owned. In practice it is US government buying up European companies in order to put them out. Europe needs to understand the cynical US business mentality and be less gullible, basically be more protective of their industry.

vladkr

I'm a Nokia shareholder, but I just can't go to Finland to vote (if only I'm asked to vote for anything)... actually normal corporations offer to vote by mail, but obviously Nokia doesn't.

@Tomi: As I sent you yesterday an example of how Nokia annoys its customers with Ovi share, I think what's happening at Nokia is just sabotage.

Nokia won't be salvaged, it's almost obvious. Nokia lost confidence from customers, from retailers, from shareholders and from investors.

There is still a hope that engineers of the NASE - Nokia After Stephen Elop - those who won't be hired by MS, will group to form a new company, but even that is unlikely to happen.

And last remark about Meego; I'm amazed how much development is made on it by independent developers. This guys do the job for free (I know, I tend to repeat), and they do a great job.

Abandoning it is a waste of all spent money on it, and a missed great opportunity.

Per

@gzost

Tizen will have high quality apps very fast because it is native C++ running linux. MeeGo, MeeGo Harmattan, Tizen are just thin layers on the linux kernel.
It is just a recompile for the system and the app is ready

WP 7 is .NET, a VM running on the operating system.
Android is java, a VM
iOS, apple has full control

vladkr

@AtTheBottomOfTheHilton:

I think you meant that GM bought SAAB, and then sank it, not Renault.

AtTheBottomOfTheHilton

@vladkr

No, buying SAAB is old news but similar story. The shares in Renault is fairly recent event.

Aniko - loyal Nokia client so far

@gzost

I'd like kindly to point where you are not right about Nokia N9, please be informed about Nokia N9:
1) no replaceable battery – false, all N9 have replaceable battery, see in service manual how to do it.
2) no microSD card – yes, but having 64GB onboard I have built in card and can exchange data via USB, NFC, WiFi, DLNA and FM, what allow me to do what I need, and in most cases is OK. When USB host software will be ready (now in beta) I will be able to attach microSD external reader.
3) no HDMI – yes, but 3,5 jack has TV-out feature, and there is DLNA which covers HDMI functionality so displaying video and audio on external devices like TV or audio sets, and works perfect.
4) no FM transmitter – really? I think there is one, also used by DLNA or WiFi transmissions. Perhaps you was meaning there is not adequate or matured enough software for it. A time ago the same false was repeated about receiver “N9 does not have FM radio” as it was not preinstalled by Nokia. By now there are at last 3 different FM radio software. So N9 has receiver. The same case is with transmitter. Just lack of marketing.
5) and much worse camera than the N8 – yes that's right. The reason is lack of physical space in N9 unibody. Next incarnation of N9 can have dimensions of Lumia 900 but camera from 808. This will lower production costs and also will support selling. Current N9 camera is very OK for average common user nowadays.
6) “Why you consider all these huge problems with the Lumia phones, but not worthy of mentioning in connection with the N9 is a mystery. The N9 may have attracted a core audience of Nokia + open source fans, but there's little appeal to the broader market.” – this seems to me lack of N9 marketing and responsibility of CEO to provide it properly. Whole this is about COE duties, isn't it?
7) “In your view: N9 is a superphone which magically overcomes all problems, and would be a worldwide hit despite there being no ecosystem to speak of. “ – you are worse then wrong, you are unaware. There is alive alive N9 ecosystem, that was one of things which encouraged me to buy my Nokia N9. I have all software I need and in case of need using INCEPTION software I am able to run linux with desktop and use N9 as full computer or small tablet, even to launch LibreOffice and do all office and paper works. You don't know what are you talking about at all, completely. And significant is quality of software. One MeeGo dedicated title does what several Android titles combined or used together just can't – quality is over quantity. And developers are porting more and more software from Symbian, Android also Windows. Nokia provided tools and examples to enable and make this process easier, using several Qt tools and examples and scripts. There are several sites in internet with MeeGo software, so even if Nokia would close Nokia store I will be able to buy software or download free. And most important: when developers SELL software for N9 then this is final proof there is ecosystem, don't you think? I think yes. Or where I buy software for N9? Note that not only single developers sell software for N9 but also software houses. This is ecosystem, isn't it? Please use Google before you repeat again something like this, as this is not true. Number of unique software titles exceeded one thousand a the end of 2011, and is growing. Quite good for dead ecosystem, do you agree? Imagine what could happen with normal support? Anyway developers earn on Nokia N9 ecosystem already, you find by yourself paid software, ask uncle Google to help you find them, or Nokia store. Is it big? No, but it is growing, and there is more then was for Android in comparable period after Android has appeared. As many software is written with Qt for Symbian etc. and Qt can compile software for Nokia N9 and MeeGo, then porting from Symbian is question of will. And also Nokia N9 MeeGo can use directly *.deb files as Linux hence huge Linux library including editors, office, utils and tools of many kind can be used. Still you say there is no Nokia N9 ecosystem? Then read it again, now I have nothing to add.

Nothing, but one thing: Greetings Mr Elop, I hope you will consider your approach to Nokia N9, MeeGo, Symbian and Nokia as big community of employees, developers, customers and enthusiasts who not necessary will want to use any kind of Windows, but use many Nokia products and pay for them. Pay money, also for your salary Mr Elop, have this in your mind please.

F.OO


I don't think WP7 is a bad operating system. In fact, I like it.

But Nokia didn't have to go 100% Microsoft. Nokia could (should) have adopted WP7, as many manufacturers did, but he shouldn't have killed all the alternatives -- Symbian, Megoo, and even Android.

Nokia didn't need Microsoft; Microsoft needed Nokia.

A sane CEO wouldn't bet the company on the 8th operating system. If he did, he would make sure that he would have exclusive rights to use that OS. But, no! Elop adopted WP7 and tried to persuade other companies to create WP7 phones. That's crazy!

He wanted to build the "third ecosystem" for Microsoft, even though Nokia would end up with a fraction of a fraction of the market.

---

Scenarios

Good: if Microsoft manages to reach 1/3 of the market in the next 5 years (which is unlikely), and Nokia grabs 1/3 of that -- Nokia will have 1/9, or 11% of the overal smartphone market share.

Bad: if Microsoft reaches 1/4 of the market in the next 5 years (which is a bit more plausible), and Nokia grabs 1/3 of that -- Nokia will have 1/12, or 8.3% of the overal smartphone market share.

Ugly: if Microsoft grabs 1/10 of the market in the next 5 years (which also unlikely, in my opinion), and Nokia grabs 1/3 of that -- Nokia will have 1/30, or 3.3% of the overal smartphone market share.

---

In the best scenario Nokia will have 11% of the overal market share (which is less than it has today, even after the Elop effect). That's the *best* Nokia can hope for!

In the sum of the scenarios we can have an estimation of the most probable outcome: Microsoft will have 23% (a huge win for Microsoft!) and Nokia 7.5% market share (a huge loss for Nokia).

---

Conclusion: Microsoft played the cards right; Elop put Nokia in a no-win situation.

F.OO

By the way -- I think my scenarios are somewhat favorable to Nokia/Microsoft.

I didn't count the possibility of Nokia getting less than 1/3 of the Windows Phone market share -- which is a possibility, given that other manufacturers are in much better situation than Nokia.

And I didn't count the possibility of the Windows ecosystem becoming a huge flop and Nokia going bankrupt as result.

Anyway: I invite you to create your own scenarios and check the possible outcome. Keep in mind that scenarios can't predict the future, but help us to evaluate risks and possibilities.

vladkr

@AtTheBottomOfTheHilton: Got it!, in fact that was Peugeot-Citroen, not Renault, but but I got what you meant. This partnership was welcomed very coldly in France.

@Aniko - loyal Nokia client so far: There is a FM transmitter in the N9, but it seems there is no antenna for it (!?!). Who knows, maybe there is a way to make it work.

I agree with you about the ecosystem, though in N9's case it's more a community than an ecosystem, but that's not a bad thing.

gzost

@per @aniko - always surprising to see the "it runs Linux applications" argument crop up. It doesn't matter to me whether a phone with a 3.9" capacitive touch screen can technically run applications that were designed for operation on a full-size desktop screen with keyboard & mouse attached. They are not usable as they are.
@aniko - Just a few points:
My bad with the battery - I should have said "user-replaceable battery". And nobody can claim that a 14-step process with five warnings along the way is that.
no microSD = microSD?? no HMDI = HDMI??
1000 titles = 70k apps?? Now I'm not of the persuasion that numbers are all that matters here - quality is important. But only after there is an app that does what I want it to do at all.
microSD gives flexibility over inbuilt storage, e.g. pop it into a card reader for transfer.
Analogue TV out is not HDMI regarding quality, and thus not an option at all if you want to use the phone as a desktop replacement. And you can't mirror the UI over DLNA.

Anton

In my friends circle no one wants Nokia now. Symbian obsolete as all ( specially who never own symbians -)) well known. Meego ( im happy N9 owner ) has no clear brand future and costs like iP4 and has narrow apps library. Lumia just crap in OS terms. Ah! And who wants S40 Touch and Type/Asha?

Just can't see perfect way for Nokia climb. Hire new CEO? What it changes?

Typical buyer today wants to iPhone but always ready to pay only for Android.

No, I think climb dance for Nokia is not easy or short. May be firing Elop is first small step, ok, but whole way to customer hearts is very-very long now.

Kaizer Allen

HORROR! Nokia drops another 1,000 employees, Finnish plant focusing on software http://www.engadget.com/2012/03/22/nokia-drops-another-1-000-employees/ -- There's a pretty interesting discussion in the comments section going on, and I bet you should see that.

To sum it up, "we're sure no amount of national pride will make people feel better about losing more jobs." (Terrence O'Brien of Engadget) and I completely agree.

Donna Aboyb

To top everything, Nokia N950 has 12 MP camera (after some disassembly made by one of the developers thAT got the device) but Elop's camp ultimately turned the aluminium construction into some cheap black plastic + changed the camera's label to 8MP (when it is actually 12mp) fishhyyyy.

SoVatar

Haha Tomi, you wrote this will be a short post. Not so, but I have a short comment about Nokia's performance:


Before Elop: Strategy good, execution bad
With Elop: Strategy bad, execution bad

anobserver

"In the best scenario Nokia will have 11% of the overal market share"

Debatable. One of the previous posts by Tomi showed that Nokia represents 87% of the WP devices sold nowadays. So the best Nokia can hope for according to your 3 scenarios are 8.7% - 21.75% - 29%.

From this perspective, one can to a certain extent understand the optimism of the current Nokia management regarding the WP strategy -- but the optimistic view is not a realistic one...

J. Aho

What I don't understand, why haven't the shareholders made an emergency meeting and thrown out Elop.

Maybe you can see things so much clearer from the Pearl of Asia (gosh,I wish I was back there) and could enlighten us here in the dark Europe. :)

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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