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« Nokia Q4 Results: Now Official, Elop has Created World-Record Destruction of Market Share in One Year | Main | Last in my Trilogy of Nokia Numbers postings re Q4. The Regional Split. What do you do if 92% of your loyal customers reject your new toy (Lumia) »

January 26, 2012

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Yes Yes

Great Tomi Ahonen. Just great logic here. The countries where they didn't sell N9 and DID sell Lumia are dominated by Android/IOS and operators. Your numbers are nothing but pure fantasy.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Yes Yes

Oh really? So Android which was selling 50% of the world's smartphone and iOS selling 25% in Q4 is 'dominating' the countries where Lumia was launched but N9 not?

Utter baloney. Italy? Android 38%, iOS 19% according to the latest numbers by Kantar. UK 48% Android, 21% iPhone. France 47% Android, 17% iOS.

Sorry Yes Yes, your argument sounds reasonable but the facts prove you wrong.

Try again :-)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Ignorant

Does everyone believe that the "Sold all MS shares and bought Nokia stock" story is the whole truth and nothing but the truth?

(My tax advisor knows 493 legal ways to own shares without your name appearing on any shareholder register)...

Just a random thought unrelated to the above story and to the question 'Why not flood the world with Meego?..'

Peter

not just Elop not the whole board of nokia have to be arrested for the crime of bringing down nokia intentionally.

n9 did sell in China with heavy marketing. but nokia online shopping was brought down intentionally when n9 started selling.

disruption of execution is rampant under Elop worldwide.

Yes Yes

You are in infact pulling N9 sale numbers from a random poster and a message board? WOW

And the actual AllaboutSymbian owner of the site estimates N9 sales at 500k.

Eduardo

Tomi, you should have a contest. Readers would submit predictions for 2012 total sales for Nokia Windows Phone. Best prediction would get a suitable prize.

Ansii vanjoki

Fired elop Fired elop Fired elop Fired elop Fired elop Fired elop Fired elop Fired elop Fired elop Fired elop Fired elop Fired elop Fired elop Fired elop Fired elop Fired elop Fired elop Fired elop Fired elop Fired elop Fired elop Fired elop Fired elop Fired elop

Pedro

for a while i've been trying to think that Elop's strategy was future proof, and although it pained me (Nokia and QT big fan here), i was hopping that his moronic decision to throw out QT and all the engineers would pay up eventually for Nokia's sake.

You kept calling him out pointing his errors. He can't be that dumb, or he wouldn't even be in that top position.

But 12 months later, i think its time to face the reality and give in to the red flags people have been throwing: it was a deliberate decision to cripple Nokia. All the rumours (via Eldar Murtazin) about MS buying Nokia's smartphone division will come true, and it then all will make sense.

But whatever happens now, Nokia faded so much, no one even cares now: from customers to developers everybody is alienated. i could go on talking about the damage done to the "personality" of the brand Nokia, but i guess its pretty obvious.

Peter

Pedro ,

Elop and Jorma have jointly destroyed nokia not the sake of M$ take over but for WS short sellers since day 1.

They are 1000% criminals.


Peter

N9

@Yes Yes just do the math its not that hard.
If symbian sales were in line with Q3, if Wp sold at best 1 million on the quarter, what is there left???
It's easy to extrapolate that at the rock bottom minimum the N9 must have sold at least 1.5 million, just for the math to had up.

The other conclusions are plain obvious and any one should be able to make them... If the N9 was sold globally along side with the N950 and without a Dead On Arrival sticker on its head, one could expect sales at least of 4-6 millions, that would make it a more decent (spectacular?) debut for a new system. Plus some much needed revenue for NOKIA.

khim

One additional piece of puzzle to watch.

History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes.

Launch of Windows Phone 7 reminds me of launch of another "incompatible replacement OS". This system was called OS/2 and it was launched by "nobody ever got fired for picking it's stuff" IBM. Software companies spent HUGE efforts porting their wares to OS/2 - but users rejected it (because first version required excessive resources, lacked many expected features such as multitasking for DOS programs, etc). Loses across the industry were colossal. Lots of firms went bankrupt. The ones which didn't wowed to never touch OS/2 again.

This meant that when improved and enhanced OS/2 2.0 (no quotes, it really was quite good) was released it had no software! IBM convinced few developers to try again (probably with paying them some money upfront) but this was too little, too late. IBM tried to solve the problem by including Windows in OS/2, but these efforts backfired: yes, it was possible to use Windows programs in OS/2 but that basically meant that you need to spend more money to get the same result. What's the point?

Today we have 50'000 applications is WP7 Market and just a few millions of phones for these application. Developers are ought to be disappointed. If this will lead to the similar level of disappointment among the developers as with OS/2 back then... well, this will be the end of the dream of "third ecosystem".

I'm not saying that this is guaranteed to happen, but watch for the numbers of apps, too. Right now Microsoft still enjoys the same status as IBM back then. And developers are still writing new apps and waiting for the promised bonanza. But how long will they wait till they stop buying the usual Microsoft's story of "We are Microsoft, we can not be denied, we will prevail in the end"? IBM needed about three years from "we can not be stopped" to "Houston, we have a problem" and then five more year till "we don't even use our OS on our own computers". But looks like time is faster in Mobile World...

Nokia is declining

One big problem for Nokia is trying to sell outdated phones at premium price. The current Lumia phones (including the 900) will sell well - YA! if it is still 2009. Nokia threw out HDMI-out, changable battery, microSD slot, USB-OTG which were present in the its older phones. Why? Maybe to make it lighter? So that its battery last longer? What is this about not needing more memory cos you can store stuff over the cloud? Sure reminds me of the good old days when some joker tried selling disk-less PC cos "everything is on the network".

And Elop stubbornly imply that ALL its competitors are wrong to embrace multi-core CPU. When a man running a race discovers everyone else is running the opposite direction, it will only be sensible to re-evaluate himself - only a fool will laugh at everyone else. I was a Nokia fan, I loved the N95. I had wifi on my N80-IE before all my friends. What happened to innovation? And whatever happen to the Xenon flash?

cycnus

@Yes Yes

The owner of AllAboutSymbian (AAS) were trying to justify elop, because he also own the AAWP (All about Windows Phone), in other word, elop has transform him to nokia new religion the WP.

khim

*Nokia*is*declining*: And Elop stubbornly imply that ALL its competitors are wrong to embrace multi-core CPU.

Nope. Elop implies that multi-core is HARD. Recall the history: both Windows 9X and MacOS Classic never supported - even if hardware had support for years!

WindowsCE similarly has no support for SMP. It's possible to add SMP to existing system, but it takes YEARS. I sure hope Windows Phone guys at least started this work now, or else Windows Phone will be screwed VERY soon.

They may spread lies about "super-lightweight OS" which "does not really need multi-core", but these are so obviously lies it's not even funny. If OS just does not need all that power, then why go with 1.4GHz CPU and not use, for example, 800MHz CPU?

I suspect that answer for other loses is the same: Nokia is hostage of Microsoft developers. If they don't support "Feature X", then "Feature X" is not available on Nokia phones.

cycnus

@nokia is declining

the answer to your question is simple, because Microsoft Windows Phone platform does not support HDMI (or in other word a multiple screen), microSD slot (because it's a wall garden a.l.a iphone, where we need zune on PC to access the file, but not all files), USB-OTG (again, because WP7 does not support it, microsoft don't want people able to copy file without computer, and as for USB-OTG mice&kb, it because it's not supported in WP7).

cycnus

@N9,

If you follow the thread at AAS (allaboutsymbian.com), you'll read that:
from Nokia Financial Report PDF, that SALES OF SYMBIAN WERE DECLINING...
So, the 1.5 million N9 number is the WORST NUMBER that taking into consideration that sales of symbian smartphone is the same as last quarter.

In other word, sales of Nokia N9 ****IS**** more than 2 million unit.!!!!!

Dipankar Mitra

What IS it about the number 37 million in the smartphone industry this quarter???

Tomi's prediction of market size in 4 global regions = 37 million
Morgan Stanley prediction of Windows Phone in 2012 = 37 million
iPhone sales in 4Q 2011 = 37 million

elm70

@Tomi

I'm surprised that you are a "victim" of the copy paste world.

You copy a no sense post from All About Symbian, that N9 sold 1.5 to 2.0M unit.
You did not verified.
Yes, in the PDF from Nokia it is written that Symbian sales have been declined ... yes, but it always related to Year/Year, not Quarter to Quarter.

So, 1.5M N9 is pure fantasy.

About increase of ASP of Nokia ... again ... nobody is thinking, in the SmartPhone sales Nokia did added the 180M euro got From Microsoft, inside there are also the IPR paid by Apple, estimate other 150M or more euro ... so ASP was well below 130 Euro on Q4, in decline both Y/Y and Q/Q

Think more and copy less please

Tchuss

e_lm_70

elm70

@cycnus

"In other word, sales of Nokia N9 ****IS**** more than 2 million unit.!!!!!"

Only in your dreams ... not in the reality

Tchuss

e_lm_70

hewbass

would just like to point out that even if the n9 only sold 500,000 units (half the number of. Lumia), that is still an embarrassingly large number for Elop and co.

The N9 was only available in tiny markets, is using old HW and was expensive, the Lumia went to Nokia's leading markets, was heavily advertised, was heavily subsidised, and uses much fresher HW (that was originally intended for the n9 successor).

You would expect to see 10 Lumia's sold for every n9. If Nokia had put as much effort into the N9 as Lumia, you could easily expect them to sell many more N9s then Lumias (and my, possibly incorrect, understanding is that they could have manufactured more n9s than the Lumias they did manage to make).

cycnus

@Elm,

Why you so be defensive on N9/Lumina800 sales number?
Why don't you read the PDF and say your own idea?

elm70

@cycnus

I read the PDF, there is no number about Symbian or Meego (N9) nor of WM (Lumia 800)

It is clearly written that Y/Y the symbian phone sale did decline, Q4 2010 Nokia sold 28.6M Symbian. This is the reference.
Not the 16.8M Symbian sold on Q3 2011.

Now, do your maths
Smart Devices Net Sales 2747M.
Inside there are the 180M from Microsoft (if you don't agree tell me where these money have been put in the Nokia balance)
Not disclosed are also the money from Apple, should be at least 150M since Apple sold tons of iPhone.
Nokia in the past told that IPR from Apple have been added in the Smart Phone sales "basket"

Now real ASP is (2747-180-150) / 19.6 -> 123 Euro per unit.

ASP is declining ... the statement on PDF that ASP is increasing is a lie, for sell "old" Symbian Nokia had to go down with prices. That is normal since the best Nokia phone is still the N8 that is more then 1 year ago, since then nothing happen.

N9 has sold as little as the N900, maybe little bit better then N900, still what they sold is a miracle for how Elop in person try to boycott the N9 sales.

Tchuss

e_lm_70

ps: Elop Effect is real ... but don't fool yourself jumping too early on declare Nokia-Microsoft as dead. Finally after ages Nokia has 2 operators selling their phones in US (but just not yet and not present on Q4, and it will be a modest contribution on Q1 2012) ... this can provide some positive surprise for Nokia in 2012 from Q2, and hopefully growing for the Q4 of 2012 ... so .. hold on your horses for now.

smallnad

you've said so much and may be reasonable. But could you explain me one simple thing. What makes n9 better than Lumia? I've seen both of them and IMHO n9 have no chances against Lumia 800.

Meltemi Blog

My analysis shows N9 has been sold at least 0.96 million units, if Lumia phones were sold 1M and Symbian devices shipment increased by 5% (6.8% in Q4 2010) in Q4: http://www.meltemiblog.com/2012/01/n9-vs-lumia-sales-numbers-in-q4.html

So, if we're talking about reality, N9 outsells Lumia phones without any doubts!

N9

@smallnad and what do the numbers tell you??? that you are part of a minority...

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