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December 23, 2011

Comments

Jo

Yeah i agree unless lumia manages to n8 numbers its gotta be a huge failure Microsoft should just give up instead they screw nokia brand more

cycnus

Hi Tomi,

Thanks for the this article. I've been waiting for Nokia 800 sales number from you. I can't wait to see what Nokia would release as Q4 2011 report in a couple more weeks.

Mobiles

In my opinion it must be succeed in the market and I really like Nokia Lumia.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Jo, cygnus and Mobiles

Jo - I am afraid Elop will not want to release Lumia numbers separate from Symbian so we may not know. The analyst houses will probably not want to commit this early so we might not get 'independent' numbers either. But what we should get is 'Microsoft' numbers from the analysts (Microsoft almost definitely wont release WP numbers) which will combine Windows Mobile and Windows Phone across all makers. From that we could guess that perhaps half would be Lumia, which may be the best we will get for Q4 and then its guesstimates only and difficult to compare.

cygnus - Yeah, me too! and like I wrote to Jo, I am afraid the numbers will be weak and Elop won't split them up. I am also VERY curious to hear the MeeGo numebrs which also will probably not be broken out by Nokia.

Mobiles - True. Lumia 'must succeed' from Elop's point of view, but if it won't and that looks likely - then Elop will be under great pressure to change Nokia strategy and the Board under pressure to fire him. This all totally separate from the pressure coming out of the falling share price which should be causing Elop a lot of sleepless nights already now.

Thank you all for writing

Tomi Ahonen :-)

guest

WP is actually fairly recent, and Nokia+WP is a visible, potentially powerful, but really new combination.

Would it then make sense to compare the initial Lumia reception to another visible, powerful, and also novel combination i.e. Samsung+Bada, during the first couple of years when Bada devices were launched?

It might possibly give a guidance, separate from the other Nokia history (Symbian, Meego & co) about what to expect and a form of cross-checking about how to judge the market success (I do not have any a-priori, this could finally be a good surprise as well as a bad surprise for Nokia).

Imternet Interactive

Thank you for sharing a giochi cucina nice blog

Neil H

Hi Tomi,

Nice start, but lost the way in your usual anti-Elop or anti-Nokia rant that will never end. Pleas come out of this clamorous loop in finding sadistic pleasure, this is a sign of a real hollow and shallow Analyst, shame for telecom industry. Please do not bring in your personal vendetta in here (maybe your job offer for senior position at Nokia was rejected). Please write something of value rather than pessimistic and biased views.

I understand you have some talent but no vision. I am sure you have enough guts to keep this comment and reply to it.

Hope your upcoming articles are valuable to readers.

Thanks.


Christian Surlykke

If Nokia was run in a rational way, they would try to make some money from the N9 - launch it in more countries, try to ensure costumers that it's not a dead platform, etc.
Someone in Nokia _must_ have considered this.
So I'm thinking: Is it written in the agreement with Microsoft that Nokia cannot sell the N9 where they sell Lumia?
Also, what struck me as particularly strange about the 11/2 decision was that they wouldn't put Qt on WP. That could have kept (part of) the developer community and kept some of the transition strategy they had in place.
Again - one wonders if this is part of the agreement with Microsoft.

br. Christian Surlykke

Nokia Sucks

@Neil H

You must be a delusional visionary who who have many visions with no substance. The signs are out there and the Lumia line is failing. It is failing hard and you're still having delusions of grandeur for Nokia.

People like you are what makes a company go down. Executives who are out of touch with reality are known to run a company aground. I do hope you don't hold a position of power in any company as you will be disastrous and will do more harm than good. You need to take some reality check classes and stop seeing things like a hallucinating pot head.

I hope you'll pull your head out of the sand and get in touch with reality and stop smoking crack.

Thanks.

Neil H

@Nokiasucks

I think your name says it all and its no point in arguing with you.

I am neither a pro- nor anti-Nokia or matter of fact any other technology firm. I am just saying an Analyst needs to have a rounded view and not only amplifying negatives for personal vendetta..especially I feel sorry when industry veterans like Tomi..lose their way, over-targeting a person or a company.

There are more interesting things to write about and have a better conversation.

Thanks.

n900lover

I'm not that sure Elop would be under any sever pressure even with really horrible lumia Q4 number, like 250,000 or less. It was explicitly stated the new strategy is first succeed in usa and roll to the world from there, in other words for Elop (and presumably the board) the primary and crucial market is usa. I could even imagine him making the argument that initial failure in europe & asia validates the strategy to start in usa.

So I think his time will come around Q4 2012, after nokia unveils windows 8 on market. Even if he is fired, by that time the option to go back to symbian->meego will be gone. He is presenting the fact that nokia doesn't have a plan b as a feature and I'm afraid he will succeed at least at this bit.

martinohsk

Hi Tomi,

"The Lumia sales for Q4, the critical Christmas season ......... are going to disappoint. Disappoint heavily. So say all the early signs. All of them."

A very emphatic statement if ever there was one. But wait, why no mention of positive early signs such as Phonehouse France, KPN Netherlands and ThreeUK showing the Lumia 800 on their bestseller lists?

Your conclusions may be right or wrong, but your obviously biased analysis and highly personalised nature of your attacks on Elop do nothing for your credibility.

Poifan

I don't buy that the N9 would sell any better in mainstream shops. I think the big issue for any upstart OS at this phase of the market is that consumer's see risk in not buying iOS or Android devices and going with a challenger. Sure the (nearly) identical hardware of these two devices is great and the OSes are both pretty slick, but why make the leap when one's peers have iOS or Android? I think Blackberry's are still bought, but only by those that want a QWERTY messaging device. Nokia/RIM/MS need to do something disruptive to break into this growing duopoly. It's not good enough to be "as good as or even slightly better" than iOS or Android.

von

Then again during the transition of Sony's PS1 to PS2, there weren't that much competitor compared to the launch during that of the PS3. Which can be said with Nokia. Not to mention, Nokia is known to innovate and be the first. I can still remember their local commercial with the Nokia 7650 then the 6630 with video calling. Those were the golden days of having a Nokia phone. Which i don't really get in watching Nokia with WP OS. N9 almost brought those feelings back but with its downgraded camera from the N8 it felt incomplete. I have waited for the N8's successor long enough and now have moved on with an Xperia phone. And I do thank android for letting phones have higher resolutions in their screens which Nokia is completely incapable of.

n900lover

Christian Surlykke:

I don't want to search for exact wording, but it is something along the lines "wp will be nokia's primary smartphone platform".

The biggest obstacle isn't the agreement, but Elop himself, no doubt about it. Again, I think he would maybe even admit that n9 can be great success, but just for now. In the long term it would be killed in "ecosystem" wars and all that babble, so for him it's only waste of resources.

Also, I think he is using this scorched earth tactic because there is great internal opposition to the ms deal. With another option available, people would try to strangle wp7 with passive opposition and worked on symbin/meego instead, hoping that when wp7 is finally gone they can return to symbian/meegoin full force. With no alternative available Elop can make credible threat that unless everyone work hard on wp7 exactly as he says, the company will go bankrupt and everyone will be on street.

Neil H

@martinohsk

my point exactly..

Sander van der Wal

Putting Qt on top of WP would have been great for developers and would have unified Symbian, MeeGo and WP development, greatly increasing the changes of Qt on other open platforms too.

And that is exactly why *Microsoft* does not want that to happen. A cross platform toolkit commoditizes the underlying platforms, and is not a strategy for a winner in a platform war.

For Elop it would have been great. He would still have the burning platform, but with Qt on WP he would have a new platform next to with with safe crossings, and a way to quench the fires on the burning platform, making it salvageable.

That was the original Nokia strategy anyway, Symbian was the burning platform, but Maemo the new platform and Qt the bridge and fire department. But though sheer incompetence and company infighting, Nokia managed to set fire to the Maemo platform and the Qt bridge and fire department too. That was the platform Elop was talking about, the Symbian-Qt -MeeGo platform in flames. Not just the Symbian platform. The Symbian caught fire the moment the iOS App Store was announced.

n900lover

http://www.mobilesplease.co.uk/news/nokia-lumia-slow-start/

Handset : % sales
...
Nokia Lumia 800 black : 0.17%

(Statistics based on sample of 5,377 UK mobile phones sold online across major UK retailers and networks in November 2011.)

n900lover

Sorry for double post, but I forgot to add one interesting bit from link above:

As far as December 2011 is concerned, the indications are that the Nokia Lumia 800 has improved its sales performance by doubling its market share but according to sample statistics it still stands at below 1% which must be short of where Nokia would probably like to see it.

And btw, 0.17 % of 5,377 phones is 9 phones.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Guest, Neil, Christian, Nokia, n900Lover and Piot

Guest - good point but not valid comparison because Samsung clearly is prioritizing Android right now with Galaxy the hottest line of smartphones this year. I do see that Nokia and Microsoft would prefer the comparison to bada because it only did under 1 million for several of its first quarters haha. No, Nokia needs to do far better on the phone that it betted the farm on, and which is the main OS for its future.

Neil - on 'personal vendetta' - I have no quarrels with Nokia, they have been very good to me - I am an ex-Nokia executive, Nokia gave me tons of work, have used me in various official Nokia events as their outside expert etc. My first book is an official Nokia book etc. (I am ex-Nokia and obviously I left on excellent terms if my book would later be accepted as an official Nokia book and sold on the Nokia website). I love Nokia. I want Nokia to continue to be the biggest handset maker, and to return to the biggest smartphone maker. I am a Finn and I am most proud of what all Nokia has done. I have no quarrel with Nokia whatsoever. I am a REALIST and I am guided TOTALLY by the numbers, especially the money numbers. Nokia's CEO Stephen Elop made a massive mistake with the Elop Effect - that is what I was critical of. If he fixed those errors and stopped making new ones - I would not bother to talk about him again. But he KEEPS MAKING MORE stupid mistakes as I outlined in the posting two days ago about Nokia sales.

In this blog I listed specific NEWS items, both good and bad. I am an analyst and author. Among my 12 published books, I wrote THE book on how this industry makes its money. I am referenced in over 100 books by other authors so my peers respect me. I am known for voicing my opinion when global players in this industry make obvious massive mistakes. This is nothing unusual and nothing unique to Nokia. I was VERY vocal about SprintNextel's moronic decision to terminate customers who complained too much to their calling center (for valid concerns). I called for the CEO to be fired and led an online revolt about it. He was fired. This is nothing new. I was very critical of Vodafone on this site, and of Motorola. Go read the blog.

But Elop HAS been making mistakes. In this blog I chronicle NEWS about Nokia's most important product launch. My readers are curious about these things - and they trust my honesty and expect me to comment on the news. That is what a blog is. Note that I have zero benefit from driving traffic here, as I have no advertising on this blog (never had) and we have no registration of visitors. I maintain this blogsite only to connect with my readers. If you don't find value on my blog, please do not come back.

But your 'opinion' Neil H, that I am a 'shallow and hollow analyst' and am a 'shame for the telecoms industry' is a funny line. If I was not the most published author - and this blog the biggest source of free information on mobile industry stats - I might be 'afraid' of your warning. I think my career can survive your warning.. :-) At least whenever I post comments on other blogsites, I use my real name not just an initial like a coward.

Christian - yes, totally agree on N9. It probably is not in the contract as a prohibition, but more probably as an incentive ie Microsoft wouldn't pay 'marketing dollars' if MeeGo phones are marketed in the same country. Would amount to the same thing haha. That would explain why N9 is sold in 29 countries but all are obscure markets or tiny countries.

And that Qt decision - totally true, totally true. It hit me also immediately. The MOST bizarre part is, that since Qt was already supporting Android, then any 'intelligent' CEO negotiating on behalf of Nokia would have INSISTED that Microsoft agree to Qt integration with WP before signing that deal. Ballmer would have signed that deal to get Nokia. Only because Elop was 'negotiating' he didn't bother to ask for it. And obviously, if the choice is 'migrate to WP without Qt support' or 'migrate to Android with Qt support' - the choice of Android is obvious for Nokia with Symbian and MeeGo and S40 already supported by Qt (and Meltemi to come also)

Nokia - thanks for responding to Neil but please lets keep the discussions here polite and not get into personal attacks, ok.

Neil - the fact that someone here posts with a viewpoint in no way invalidates that viewpoint. But on your point 'there are more interesting things to write about' - I would ask what is more interesting right now than the ACTUAL field reports of the launch of what the world's largest handset maker and the world's largest software maker call the third ecosystem? WHAT is supposedly more interesting today 23rd of December than that? Tell me what I should be prioritising ahead of Lumia's first actual field findings before the Q4 results are released in late January? Are you not just a bit too biased in favor of Nokia and Microsoft to say this story is not current and relevant?

n900Lover - Trust me, the Nokia CEO and Board are under tremendous pressure when the share price has fallen 55% in 10 months and continues downwards, and more analysts recommend to sell the stock than to buy it, and they know this current quarter results will again be disappointing. They know that the sharks have been circling Nokia with a view to buying it - stories already confirmed that Sony, Samsung, Google and Microsoft have taken a look. Google ended up buying Motorola obviously. But if anyone other than Microsoft buys Nokia, Elop is fired instantly. And the worse the picture gets the poorer the compensation would be to Nokia's Board and shareholders in any takeover. There is MASSIVE pressure but Elop is a good poker player and clearly a great liar, so he won't let the pressure show in his demeanor. But selling Vertu? For a handset maker who stops making its own operating system and becomes mostly a box-mover, then the boxes you don't want to abandon are the luxury boxes haha. This is desperation at Nokia, trying to stay afloat.

On Windows 8 - the carriers will scream and yell (because of Skype). I doubt there will be real Windows 8 on a Nokia smartphone ever. The carriers stopped Apple from implementing the non-SIM card version of the iPhone this year - which is why the iPhone was delayed by 4 months. Apple is far more powerful as a handset maker in terms of consumer demand than Nokia, and the Skype threat is far more than the SIM card was. No. As long as Nokia is independent, that won't happen. If Microsoft buys Nokia or its smartphone unit, that might happen but then the carriers do a 'Kin' against Microsoft - if you remember, Kin was killed within weeks after all carriers told Microsoft that they would not support the Kin phones, after all (after initially promising to).

Piot - I'm sorry about the spam on the site, I've had my most busy autumn and have fallen badly behind on the maintenance (and replies) on the blog. I am trying to work at it now. Sorry about that.

About the deleting. You've been here long enough Piot to know this, I mostly allow all discussion on any thread but in some cases I SAY in the BLOG ARTICLE that I will limit discussion on that thread. In those cases I delete all irrelevant comments and even those that have both relevant and irrelevant points. Like the blog earlier this week about Nokia sales. That is a rare topic and I did not want the comments to disintegrate into the usual debate about iPhone vs Symbian vs whatever and so I said, that thread is limited only to topics about Nokia sales channel issues. You've seen me do that before, I do that rarely. In most other blog postings, I am very open-minded about any questions and comments and try to answer everyone who posts.

Thank you all

Tomi Ahonen :-)

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Helsinki but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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