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« Smartphone Market Data: Revising Stats for Android and bada | Main | After short break, am back to blogging, many stories coming »

November 16, 2011

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Comments

asturcon3

Just a note: for rss driven readers as I am, editing a previous article is a bad idea. May be better edit here, post a new article 'I've edited here: ' to call us, and after a week or so delete that dummy article.

I enjoy your posts, and don't want to miss that info.

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Great analysis!

kevin

Thanks Tomi. Please make sure you explain how and why you "downgraded" the Android and bada numbers. Please also explain any confidence you have in the Samsung number, given that Samsung has provided little info, and the different counting agencies have widely varying estimates.

Thanks!

kan

Rounding error somewhere in table 1 Blackberry shipped 10.6m phones when in table 2 its 10.7m - as far as I know only Blackberry ships Blackberry o/s and as you have discounted tablets - you fudged the figures?

Kalle

What I'm wondering how much Google is actually spending money so that companies like Samsung, HTC etc. can make money selling mobiles. Even it it seems that Google owns the platform they will lose it when they try to control it.

Baron95

Clearly Q3 represents the end of an era. The last quarter of Sony Ericsson. The last quarter of Nokia shipping only in-house OSes. The last quarter of Windows Mobile. The last quarter of WebOS and iOS4. The last quarter for the DoCoMo bastardized Symbian phones.

Q4 will be the beginning of the end game where we'll see larger numbers of Windows Phones, Android and iOS solidly at the top (for a long time), and the beginning of the end for Symbian and Blackberry OS (yes, they will live for years, but it will be straight down from here, no more bounces).

It is the first quarter where all ascending major OSes will be American built, and everything else declines.

If you were to include tablets and other smart devices (smart music players and smart TVs) you will see the total dominance of iOS and Android even more clearly.

I think the next milestones will be when Windows Phone/Windows 8 passes Blackberry OS and Symbian - My take is Q4/2012.

eduardo

Android 48% Wow. So it just misses being equal to every other smartphone os combined.

@Kalle

The idea that Google is paying OEM's for Android is sheer speculation. We do know for a fact that Microsoft is paying Nokia a billion for wp7.

Juliano

Hi Tomi, I´m Brazilian and I watched your speech in HSM Expomanagement!

Do you think is good learn how to create apps for mobile?

Where I can learn here in Brazil? Do you have facebook?

Regards!

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prada

Mi piace il tuo blog così tanto, e ci sono solo alcune differenze con gli altri '. Spero ci saranno cose più meravigliose nel tuo blog. Felice ogni giorno!

Lancel

Bonne chance à vous dans le futur. Vous m'avez aidé aujourd'hui.

BB Guns UK

Finally Google has a reason to smile. Android has taken up almost half of the market share alone! Nice progress !

Kalle

@eduardo

Yes, it is a strange world when companies have to buy market share. I have hard time believing that Google will continue Android development forever without revenue from it. Currently they have money to burn and can continue to disrupt the market, but there is no return on investment.

Geri

@Kalle:
there is ROI - mobile search revenue. They need to penetrate in order to fully leverage this area.

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Now Google must be happy to here the percentage of different smartphones and the highest percentage is of Samsung which is supported by Google.

LeeBase

@Baron95 - I greatly agree. Don't know if we'll see much from WP7.5 this quarter, though. I don't see any commercials from Samsung, HTC or Microsoft pushing the phone. Perhaps Microsoft is holding off the big push for when Nokia puts out a flagship phone. I'd think that if Msft was intending to have a big quarter, this quarter, we'd be seeing lots of Tv ads.

Looking forward to a monster quarter from Apple. More carriers, 3 pricing levels. Maybe they hit 20% for the first time.

Should be another banner quarter for Android at the expense of RIM/Symbian.

Meego goes nowhere, of course.

Lee

eduardo

@Kalle

I think one reason Google is doing Android is to keep Microsoft or Apple from taking over the smartphone space and locking people out of Google search.

@rodrigottr

Things are going to be boring from now on 2012

Nobody has nothing exciting to show up until Samsung comes with Tizen pushing HTML5 foward.

I believe mobile is much more then Apps, is about a digital interface with reality. But until now that was unnexplored by Apple, Google and RIM. They are all focused on making you locked on their own ecosystem and that sucks.

I want my gadgets to talk to each other, whatever are their brands.

The only company who sees that as an oportunity is Samsung. As Sammy is also the only company that builds all gadgets we can talk about. And even if I don't think their hardware is trustworthy, their policies are the best.

Also HTML5 is the next frontier for transcending mobile platforms and also an oportunity to make smartphones cheaper since OSs tend to be more browser optimized and simple.

Mozilla has also a project on that way called B2G that even uses the installed base of Android phones for that objective.

That will be the next disruption and I think that will come in early 2013.

LeeBase

How is Tizen going to push HTML5 forward? How is HTML5 a "digital interface with reality"? We have a good start on virtual reality apps on iOS and Android already. What is Tizen going to do above and beyond that?

And if Tizen does do something new with HTML5 that others haven't -- that would simply be yet ANOTHER proprietary feature supported only on Tizen. And the marketshare would be tiny, so nobody would use that feature anyway.

As for "talking to each other, no matter the brand"....How is Samsung going to achieve this, in ways we don't already have?

You can make a phone call to any other brand of phone. Text any other brand of phone. Tweet to any other brand of phone. Skype to any other brand of phone. IM via a handful of cross platform messaging platforms. Facebook with somebody on any other brand.

Sure, Apple has a couple things it keeps to itself: Facetime and iCloud. But there is Skype and Dropbox, Google apps and services. The list is extensive.

The best HTML5 experience is Safari. If someone is making HTML5 apps, they'll work quite well on Apple products.

You're waiting for something that already exists.

Lee

Baron95

@Rodrigo "Things are going to be boring from now on 2012"

Far from it. 2012 will be the first year ever where the majority (over 50%) of individuals in advanced economies will be carrying in their pockets high performance computers with very high speed internet connections and capable still/video cameras. All the time.

We are just scratching the surface of what a transformation that will be.

The velocity of development will be breathtaking. From adding natural language voice interaction (Siri is just the first installment) to facial and air gesture recognition, to the full mobile transformation of video programming, to genesis of mobile payments.

The head to head competition of iPhone/iPad/iTouch/iMac/iTV(new) vs the equivalent Android and Windows offerings will be extremely exciting to watch.

These things will kill a lot of technologies. Like the killed the VCR the Walkman the CD (soon) and the DVD next. Land line collapse will accelerate. Mobile Phones will become so personal and so valuable that using a "house phone" or a "office phone" will be a liability.

I see 2012 as the year where we first see the realization of the truly smart mobile device.

That is why RIM and Nokia (pre-Elop/pre-Microsoft) have no chance.

kevin

Baron95 and Leebase: Excellent answers to rodrigottr.

I think 3D mapping will come on iPhone 5 in 2012, but since mapping by itself is just a feature, it will most likely be integrated with traffic, shopping, and/or travel (sightseeing) into some sort of useful solution. Augmented reality may even be involved. Even today, the Apple Store app has "geofencing" implemented for shopping.

2012 will also be the first year of a 4G LTE phone that has good battery life and is reasonably-sized. Plus more areas will be covered by LTE throughout the world, so more services that depend on having high speed data throughput will start to get implemented. The quick response will make the device seem magical.

Transcending platforms seems like something that really only the "open" crowd cares about. The average smartphone owner doesn't care since, as Leebase said, calls, texts, tweets, skypes, chat, and email already go across all major platforms. And everybody already seems to be on the Facebook platform (but not me).

Within the iOS platform though, I think also in 2012, Apple will take the next step with iCloud, so that it goes beyond just your stuff on your own devices. As already seen in Apple patents, there will be ways to share any of your stuff with anyone else who has an Apple ID or iCloud ID. Apple will create the first? social network that isn't being mined for advertisers.

Dr Dre Casque

Thanks Tomi. Please make sure you explain how and why you "downgraded" the Android and bada numbers. Please also explain any confidence you have in the Samsung number, given that Samsung has provided little info, and the different counting agencies have widely varying estimates.

Thanks!

Dr Dre Casque

Just a note: for rss driven readers as I am, editing a previous article is a bad idea. May be better edit here, post a new article 'I've edited here: ' to call us, and after a week or so delete that dummy article.

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For 3PLs, this could be a time of growth as companies seek to disband their fixed infrastructure to manage the complex logistics function and move to a more variable cost base

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Why the Symbian same with iPhone, can't understand well. Because the former is cheap price occupy the market, the latter is expensive one?

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