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« Smartphone Market Data: Revising Stats for Android and bada | Main | After short break, am back to blogging, many stories coming »

November 16, 2011

Comments

asturcon3

Just a note: for rss driven readers as I am, editing a previous article is a bad idea. May be better edit here, post a new article 'I've edited here: ' to call us, and after a week or so delete that dummy article.

I enjoy your posts, and don't want to miss that info.

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Great analysis!

kevin

Thanks Tomi. Please make sure you explain how and why you "downgraded" the Android and bada numbers. Please also explain any confidence you have in the Samsung number, given that Samsung has provided little info, and the different counting agencies have widely varying estimates.

Thanks!

kan

Rounding error somewhere in table 1 Blackberry shipped 10.6m phones when in table 2 its 10.7m - as far as I know only Blackberry ships Blackberry o/s and as you have discounted tablets - you fudged the figures?

Kalle

What I'm wondering how much Google is actually spending money so that companies like Samsung, HTC etc. can make money selling mobiles. Even it it seems that Google owns the platform they will lose it when they try to control it.

eduardo

Android 48% Wow. So it just misses being equal to every other smartphone os combined.

@Kalle

The idea that Google is paying OEM's for Android is sheer speculation. We do know for a fact that Microsoft is paying Nokia a billion for wp7.

Juliano

Hi Tomi, I´m Brazilian and I watched your speech in HSM Expomanagement!

Do you think is good learn how to create apps for mobile?

Where I can learn here in Brazil? Do you have facebook?

Regards!

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prada

Mi piace il tuo blog così tanto, e ci sono solo alcune differenze con gli altri '. Spero ci saranno cose più meravigliose nel tuo blog. Felice ogni giorno!

Lancel

Bonne chance à vous dans le futur. Vous m'avez aidé aujourd'hui.

BB Guns UK

Finally Google has a reason to smile. Android has taken up almost half of the market share alone! Nice progress !

Kalle

@eduardo

Yes, it is a strange world when companies have to buy market share. I have hard time believing that Google will continue Android development forever without revenue from it. Currently they have money to burn and can continue to disrupt the market, but there is no return on investment.

Geri

@Kalle:
there is ROI - mobile search revenue. They need to penetrate in order to fully leverage this area.

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Now Google must be happy to here the percentage of different smartphones and the highest percentage is of Samsung which is supported by Google.

eduardo

@Kalle

I think one reason Google is doing Android is to keep Microsoft or Apple from taking over the smartphone space and locking people out of Google search.

@rodrigottr

Things are going to be boring from now on 2012

Nobody has nothing exciting to show up until Samsung comes with Tizen pushing HTML5 foward.

I believe mobile is much more then Apps, is about a digital interface with reality. But until now that was unnexplored by Apple, Google and RIM. They are all focused on making you locked on their own ecosystem and that sucks.

I want my gadgets to talk to each other, whatever are their brands.

The only company who sees that as an oportunity is Samsung. As Sammy is also the only company that builds all gadgets we can talk about. And even if I don't think their hardware is trustworthy, their policies are the best.

Also HTML5 is the next frontier for transcending mobile platforms and also an oportunity to make smartphones cheaper since OSs tend to be more browser optimized and simple.

Mozilla has also a project on that way called B2G that even uses the installed base of Android phones for that objective.

That will be the next disruption and I think that will come in early 2013.

kevin

Baron95 and Leebase: Excellent answers to rodrigottr.

I think 3D mapping will come on iPhone 5 in 2012, but since mapping by itself is just a feature, it will most likely be integrated with traffic, shopping, and/or travel (sightseeing) into some sort of useful solution. Augmented reality may even be involved. Even today, the Apple Store app has "geofencing" implemented for shopping.

2012 will also be the first year of a 4G LTE phone that has good battery life and is reasonably-sized. Plus more areas will be covered by LTE throughout the world, so more services that depend on having high speed data throughput will start to get implemented. The quick response will make the device seem magical.

Transcending platforms seems like something that really only the "open" crowd cares about. The average smartphone owner doesn't care since, as Leebase said, calls, texts, tweets, skypes, chat, and email already go across all major platforms. And everybody already seems to be on the Facebook platform (but not me).

Within the iOS platform though, I think also in 2012, Apple will take the next step with iCloud, so that it goes beyond just your stuff on your own devices. As already seen in Apple patents, there will be ways to share any of your stuff with anyone else who has an Apple ID or iCloud ID. Apple will create the first? social network that isn't being mined for advertisers.

Dr Dre Casque

Thanks Tomi. Please make sure you explain how and why you "downgraded" the Android and bada numbers. Please also explain any confidence you have in the Samsung number, given that Samsung has provided little info, and the different counting agencies have widely varying estimates.

Thanks!

Dr Dre Casque

Just a note: for rss driven readers as I am, editing a previous article is a bad idea. May be better edit here, post a new article 'I've edited here: ' to call us, and after a week or so delete that dummy article.

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For 3PLs, this could be a time of growth as companies seek to disband their fixed infrastructure to manage the complex logistics function and move to a more variable cost base

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Why the Symbian same with iPhone, can't understand well. Because the former is cheap price occupy the market, the latter is expensive one?

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E.Casais

> The average smartphone owner doesn't care
> since, as Leebase said, calls, texts, tweets,
> skypes, chat, and email already go across all
> major platforms.

Can I exchange vcards or bookmarks directly between two phones via Bluetooth?

Can I save a series of files onto an SD card and recuperate them on another phone?

Can I attach the phone to a computer via USB and copy files (e.g. photos) directly from the phone to the PC?

Can I link a USB key or external disk to a phone and copy information from it to the phone?

Can I connect the phone to a projector via HDMI and start a presentation?

For that matter, can I establish a video-call with any other 3G video capable phone?

All of these functions are important for professional usages -- and useful for mass market usages as well.

I can do all of this with Symbian, and most of it with Android.

I cannot do any of these with an iPhone or a WP device.

Yes, one can tweet and skype and email and chat, but this is cloud-mediated communication. One always has to go through Apple (iTunes, iCloud, whatever), or Microsoft (Zune, Skype, whatever). Peer-to-peer communication, far from the prying eyes of and not dependent upon the proper operation of the infrastructure from Apple or Microsoft -- or the telecom operators -- is simply impossible with the new breed of smartphones.

I am convinced this will entail some surprising,
and not altogether pleasing, consequences.

kevin

"I cannot do any of these with an iPhone or a WP device." I'll address the iPhone because I have one,

Can I exchange vcards or bookmarks directly between two phones via Bluetooth
Yes, via apps (or via the cloud).

Can I save a series of files onto an SD card and recuperate them on another phone?
Well obviously no if the phone doesn't have an SD card slot. It can be done today via a computer, and via an app using the cloud.

Can I attach the phone to a computer via USB and copy files (e.g. photos) directly from the phone to the PC?
This can be done today via the computer and the cable that comes with the phone.

Can I link a USB key or external disk to a phone and copy information from it to the phone?
Theoretically, this could be done, but afaik, no one has offered a product to do it, which may mean the market is rather small. Obviously, it can be done via a computer and app.

Can I connect the phone to a projector via HDMI and start a presentation?
Yes, via an app and cable, or app and box.

For that matter, can I establish a video-call with any other 3G video capable phone?
Yes, via Skype (and other apps).

iTunes is just an iPhone accessory/sync app for your own computer, so there aren't any prying eyes that I can see. The cloud could have prying eyes, but for now, those who use iPhones still trust Apple. For better or worse, most people even still trust Google and Facebook even though they have made public what was once private info, and are making information known to advertisers (even more than Apple is).

Finally, I would also say that most of these additional use cases you bring up are of concern to a small percentage of users. You mention professional users. Yet somehow, at least in the US, and despite what you say are missing capabilities, iPhones are displacing Blackberries as the preferred business phone.

E.Casais

You confirmed my argument 100%.

I am fully aware that it is possible to perform the operations I mentioned in the roundabout ways you describe. All of them require crutches comprising special apps, special software, extra cables, the cloud, or a PC.

Once again: there is no need for a special app or the cloud to transfer vcards or bookmarks via Bluetooth on 5-years old feature phones; there is no reason why it should be different for a 2011 vintage smartphone. There should be no need to install Skype to make a video-call -- as there is a telecom standard already -- and by the way not all Skype implementations allow video-calls, even on devices with front-facing cameras.

When it comes to exchanging files between a phone and a computer, you miss a crucial point: with some smartphones (Android, Symbian), one can plug the phone via USB, and have access to the filesystem
of the phone to transfer from and to it via the PC command shell or the GUI. With iOS and WP, one must use a special synchronization software. What if the PC you connect to has not the synch software installed? Tough. What if it runs an OS (such as linux) for which Apple or Microsoft do not bother to provide a version of their synch software? Tough. Yes, there is a fundamental difference in treating a phone as a USB mass-storage device, or as a proprietary black box.

As far as connecting mass storage to a phone, it is called USB on the go. Implemented in Android and Symbian -- not in WP or iOS.
There are limitations (file system type notably), but it is practically, not just theoretically, available.

WP and iOS devices, and also Android, are fundamentally mass market products, RIM badly suffers from the difficulty to develop in the context of its proprietary technology. I am pretty confident there will be a re-differentiation of devices to cater for better connectivity and interoperability (with a variety of PC OS, phone OS, and server software), based on standards, in the coming years.
This is actually an area where Nokia seems to abandon the terrain.

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