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« Lumia Lumia Lumia, what are you doing Nokia? | Main | Smartphone Market Data: Revising Stats for Android and bada »

November 11, 2011

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@rodrigottr

Tomi


Of course I believe the sample is biased. But we are talking about a ecosystem who had 2% in past year and competing head to head with other two or three ecosystems with much much more adherence then Windows Phone has today.

My question is: what does the windows phone can offer that none other competidor can offer now?

XBox?
Office Suite?
Nokia Maps?
UX?
The excelence of nokia hardware?

In most of these items both iOS and Android can offer something comparable.


AND


How can Windows Phone compete with android for the preference of those who has the biggest impact over the client that are carriers?

How can Windows Phone compete with Android for the preference of Asian OEMs? If they don't offer software differentiation and even charge the OS while Android is free?

How can Windows Phone compete with the stronger Apple reputation and own branded stores?

In my opinion Windows Phone has just a different UI with basically more of the same possibilities and a weaker ecosystem and weaker support of those who are closer to the consumer and have bigger influence over it.

Not enought power for turning the irrelevant into relevant.

Probably the best they will do is to use the rest of Nokia's sales force and reputation for selling well on europe, since the other markets where Nokia was strong, China, India, Brazil mostly can't pay for the price of the WP smartphones.

In the end perhaps I even was too optimistic with my vote of 11,0%

hahahaha

eduardo

I thought Windows Phone 7 might have a good chance against Android because the latter had a so-so ui. But ice cream sandwich is a vast improvement, so I don't see how wp 7 is going to have much success.

incognito

Since my company is involved heavily in mobile solutions development, for three years in a row we have an inside poll (employee sourcing? :D) what to expect from mobile platforms in the next year, so that the management can have an input from the inside as well. We're a company of shy-bit above 100 people and everybody is casting a prediction no matter of position or technical expertise. Now, given that most of us closely follow what's happening on the mobile market, and some of us certainly have our own preferences, our 'crowd sourcing' is also biased, but we had some pretty fair guestimates.

We're doing the polling at the end of Q4 for our company (June) so the predictions were for the next Q4. This is an aggregated prediction list (total market share) world-wide, not new activated devices or trends. It also doesn't consider versions of operating systems, just their types. We have a separate poll for all those but I don't have the results at hand, so here's the aggregated list:

June 2010: Symbian 31.2%, iOS 30.8%, BlackBerry OS 15.3%, Android 7.8%, Windows Mobile 6.2%, webOS 2.4% (unallocated 6.3%)
June 2011: Symbian 29.6%, Android 19.9%, iOS 18.7%, BlackBerry OS 13.1%, MeeGo 6.2%, Windows Mobile 3.3%, webOS 3%, Windows Phone 2.2% (unallocated 4%)
June 2012: Android 30.2%, Symbian 23.3%, iOS 14.1%, Windows Phone 9.2%, BlackBerry OS 8.9%, webOS 3.6%, MeeGo 3.1%, Windows Mobile 2.1% (unallocated 5.5%)

Of course, some of those are not viable anymore (or were not viable in the time the prediction was made for), but it gives some insight. As for the end of 2012, I personally don't think that WP7 will hit the 10% mark, unless Microsoft completely rework it, give more freedom to the OEMs for customization and value-added things and releases Win 8 that will extremely tightly integrate with WP, while providing the similar options for at least users with Macs. Chances of that happening are not exactly stellar.

I think Symbian will sink under the 20% mark (although Belle looks promising), and Android might rise to a whooping 35%. Grim fate awaits BlackBerry as well, although it remains to be seen what will they do with their new BBX-OS. MeeGo (well Maemo 'branch') might actually grab a couple of percents given how well the N9 is received, provided that Nokia stops with artificially created lack of supply and purposed stifling of it in favor of their Lumia line, as they are doing now. webOS, as well as Windows Mobile will be practically extinct by the end of 2012.

As for Nokia, they really are in a deep doo-doo and I don't think that Lumia line will save them - I'm willing to bet that they'll sell more Symbian phones than WP7 ones by the end of 2012, and not only that - they will have bigger profit margins on Symbian devices and the N9 than on their Lumia line. Their featurephone business will keep them afloat, but the question is for how long...

While I don't agree with some of Tomi's rabid fanboyism and some implied conspiracy theories, and especially not with the 'carriers hate Skype' motion (after all, Maemo/MeeGo had, and has the best Skype integration out of all devices), I fully agree that going with the WP7, especially the way Elop handled it, will cost Nokia dearly. They actually had much better chances with their 'burning platforms' than with the paper ship they've jumped on. If they did it quietly while forcing their current one-Qt-to-rule-them-all strategy, they'd at least have the time to gracefully jump on the WP7 bandwagon while making profits and having more leverage in negotiations with Microsoft, and having a viable backup plan if WP7 flops. They could even force Microsoft to accept Qt as a first-class citizen on their platform thus creating a graceful transition for their existing user and developer base. Of course, the question is would the WP7 even survive by now if Nokia didn't make a commitment to it back in February, but unlike Nokia, Microsoft has money to burn for risky moves - Nokia forgot that this is not the 2007 and that they really, really cannot afford `betting it all on black`.

The way it is now, Nokia is on the verge of leaving the smartphone (and future tablet) race. I at least hope they're not that crazy to completely abandon Qt and that they at least keep Maemo/MeeGo as a backup, otherwise they really have set sail for epic fail even if Windows Phone eventually becomes the dubbed third ecosystem - by the time it might, it would be too late for Nokia.

As for my company, we've halted all of our Qt investment and are now primarily focusing on Android and iOS, while keeping an eye on the WP7. None of us (at least developers) would be especially pleased if we're to be forced to develop for the WP7 given that we've had some bad experience with .NET development (and especially so-called professionals in that field) and that we hardly fit into that mindset. We even received free Omnia 7's to investigate the platform - I keep mine in a drawer, that system is just not for me not even as a user. We were having high hopes for Qt, but Nokia dashed them quite expertly. 'Bravo' to them...

Cheers

cheapdrdrebeatsen

I thought Windows Phone 7 might have a good chance against Android noly in his ui.

Baron95

While I don't think Windows Phone (and Windows 8 for mobile devices) will be very successful, to deny it has some unique competitive strengths is just foolish. Particularly a year from now, when we have Windows 8 running on phones, PCs, tablets, perhaps game consoles and TVs also.

Unique advantages?

- Best development tools in the industry. Miles above Android.

- Largest development community on the planet - by far.

- OEMs like Samsung don't need to pay Microsoft for IP licensing, like they have to do with Android. The commenter above who says Android is free for the Asian OEMs is clueless. They are all paying royalty fees to Microsoft *and* spending a ton of money defending from litigation from Apple.

- IT acceptance - IT departments are resentful that iOS and Android have been forced into them. Windows give them a chance to reassert themselves (or try).

- Microsoft marketing muscle and war chest.

- Nokia scale and worldwide reach.

- Xbox tie-in, Office tie-in, etc.

- Windows 8 is likely to be the first OS to run PCs, tablets and phones (though it may be beat by the iOS OS X unification).

Is that enough to win? No. Is it enough to enter the fight? Yes.

Remember, a year from now Android OEMs maybe paying $10/phone to Microsoft, $5/phone to Oracle, $5/phone to Apple. *OR* they can just pay $10/phone to Microsoft and be done with it. It is a good hedge.

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I will test the windows 8 , I hope it can take me something special!

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eduardo

@Baron95

Ok, you persuaded me, at least some.

But on the patents thing I wouldn't be so sure. See the Barnes &Nobel lawsuit, good coverage at Groklaw, Microsoft's claims look very weak.

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hm, i dont` know, but i don`t like Windows Phone.

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Really twitter is a very big and great platform of social media and it helps to promote different types of news and websites all over the world.

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