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« Carnival Of The Mobilists 253 - Best blogs of the month about mobile: this time its all about change | Main | Lumia Lumia Lumia, what are you doing Nokia? »

October 26, 2011

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Alex Kerr

Hi Tomi,

Thank you for a very informative article.

Re: The paragraph above the heading "COMPARE THE REACHES" near the bottom, where you write "Don't think of doing any smartphone apps for most of the Emerging World if you intend to offer mass market services for consumers ... we can safely shift those priorities to be more like 90%, 9% and 1% for Emerging World countries especially like Africa, India etc."

I agree re: apps specifically for SMARTphones, but what about Java Mobile? I believe the situation is significantly different there.

First of all, do you know the current penetration of Java Mobile in the emerging/developing world? I know planet-wide it's what 3 or 4 billion?

Secondly, conventional wisdom is that you need an active and working internet connection to download a Java app onto the phone, but what if this wasn't necessary? Just suppose for a second that one could transfer a Java app via bluetooth alone - no internet, or even phone signal, necessary.

i.e. what I'm asking is, what's your best guess for numbers of phones that run Mobile Java and have bluetooth, across the developing/emerging world, regardless of a working internet connection being present? This is actually closer to the possible installed base for Java Mobile software.

On a separate note, considering people who might be able to access a WAP (I mean specifically the old WAP standard, using WML) or XHTML upwards, what's your best estimate for number of active internet connections on phones across the developing/emerging world too?

Thanks!
Alex

Paul

I've been reading your blog for a long time, but I think you should stay away from the social commentary as you really don't get it. Stick to the tech stuff.

Baron95

The important figures were all left out.

Over 50% of the world GDP is in the US and the EU. Over 85% of the GDP is in the G20 countries.

There are a bunch of countries and places within those countries that completely do not matter for the world economy, for the mobile industry, etc.

The reality is that, to be relevant you have to be relevant in the US and EU first, the G20 second. If you have a spare second than give the last 10% of the world GDP some thought.

All this talk about billions of people and phones and trillions of SMSs are nice, but when you start to measure by economic value, about 5B people have no impact.

@rodrigottr

WOW Tomi


Tomi, personally, I believe you are one of the few today commenting about tech and mobile industry who have the gift of observing the world as it really is. Your approach to this reality has the depth of a social scientist and analytical accuracy of an engineer. My guess is because you had traveled to lots and lots of countries, and seen very different realities that it gave a much wider vision most annalists have.

That is EXTREMELY important to understand HOW, WHY and WHERE a new technology generates VALUE for people and thus which technologies can be relevant or not.

Unfortunately, I see a very different approach from most other reviewers, most of them from the US, who have a look over mobile technology just like if was talking about video games. Specs, apps, OSs... But a very superficial vision over the VALUE those things generate.

On a HUMAN perspective, that is what you are doing with your approach. And that is what gives your analysis such quality.

Today I read an article from Harvard Business Review saying Steve Jobs has solved the innovator's dilemma. He understood the paradox that you can make more profit when your focus is generating value then generating profit.

That is what defended several times here on your blog, in discussions with some guys (who strangely aren't here commenting your social numbers but are always here attacking your opinions about MSFT or Apple) when I was saying the priority of a company is to perpetuate itself. Not generating profit. It is the same paradox. A paradox which coincidently another Harvard Business Review article saying the same thing I was saying.

Anyway. That guy was saying Steve Jobs solved the innovator's dilemma because he set for Apple, since when he came back in command, the objective of creating innovation. The objective of not worrying about profits but only about generating value trough their products! That is the opposite of what they teach on business schools. Why? Because business men normally don't take LSD or travel India for spiritual retreat like Jobs did. And so they keep incapable of seeing the obvious: Value comes from innovation (Schumpeter). But innovating is risky and then if you wish to maximize profit innovating looks risky. So you chose to copy and to not innovate. Which in the end is the most risky strategy because all the others chose this one. And may end on the red ocean like HTC, Motorola, Samsung, LG, Sony Ericsson, and now Nokia are navigating.

That is the greatest teaching from Steve Jobs. Such passion for innovating, for creating something brilliant, and the complete faith that if you do it, will be rewarded.

From my point of view, that is why your analysis are incomparably better then other guys. You are a passionate visionary. You see the Mobile Technology as a pivot of an incredible human transformation and solution of many human problems. You are a Mobile Evangelist. You are not focused on making money.

And that is why I admire your work, that is why I learn so much from you and also believe mobile can have such power for changing the world.

Both articles from HBS I mentioned are here:

http://blogs.hbr.org/cs/2011/10/steve_jobs_solved_the_innovato.html
http://blogs.hbr.org/cs/2011/10/the_corporations_survival_shou.html

Now, where are you @kevin, @staska, @LeeBase, @kdt and everybody else? And why aren't you here learning???

Organizari evenimente

You know what?! From my point of view, the fact that we are addicted to technology is not something to be proud with.. Sorry.

JashuRashmi

Really it is very helpful solution to solve problem in the field of huge people counting system. Well we have also a nice device of automatic people counter.

Baron95

@RodrigoTTR - I'm sorry. You just don't get it. Mobile technology (be it an iPhone, iPad, PlayStationPortable, MacBookAir, etc) is simply the way for the Western (Mostly US/Developed Asian Economies/Occasionally EU) companies to make poor people in Africa and elsewhere shift their meager incomes from food staples and local products into mobile phones, samrtphones, service, music, etc.

What you hear is a sucking sound of African and other poor countries money being sucked by Apple, Samsung, HTC, Nokia, ZTE, Huawei, etc.

There is/was nothing altruistic at Apple - they are brutal competitors. On the design. On the supply chain. On the Marketing (making poor people yarn for it). On the retail. Everywyere. To make money. No company generates US$8B in net profits per quarter by accident.

So you and Tomi can join hand and go hug the masses of the poor countries as much as you want,. Show them the new mobile technology, tell them how good it will be for them, so they can send even more money they don't have to Apple et al.

We, the shareholders, will thank you for it.

Thank you.

apollo_dev_team

@rodrigottr

Any counter arguments?

@rodrigottr

@apollo_dev_team


No, I've got no counter arguments... Can't you see the guy ain't serious? He is joking. Nobody can be that stupid! HAHAHHA

But I admit. You ALMOST ALMOST convinced me you where serious, @Baron95.

That was a REALLY GOOD ONE!

HAHAHAHAHHA

Baron95

I am very serious. Thank you for telling the 5B poor that Apple doesn't care about profits and that mobile technology is the best thing for their lives.

Have I said, than you?

Thank you.

B95, on behalf of all Apple shareholders :)

apollo_dev_team

Don't forget also to thank to Foxconn's employees. They suffer a lot building the beauty design of hardware.

Ok, it sounds quite hard but just to be honest: I guess, as human and if you are a CEO of Apple, you won't care so much about profit if you know already from the doctors how much time will you have left... don't you?

@rodrigottr

1 - "Ok, it sounds quite hard but just to be honest: I guess, as human and if you are a CEO of Apple, you won't care so much about profit if you know already from the doctors how much time will you have left... don't you?"

2 - http://blogs.hbr.org/cs/2011/10/steve_jobs_solved_the_innovato.html


I hope this two things solves your higher difficulty of understanding, B95.

Baron95

Steve Jobs was DETERMINED to see Apple be the most valuable company in the world before he died. And he succeeded in the nick of time.

Yes, he and his team did it by creating great products, building great retail experiences and having the most effective supply chain in the industry. But if you have any doubt about Jobs fiercely competitive drive, you need to go read his biography.

E.Casais

For a different perspective, informed by on-the-ground observation, about what mobility really means for third-world countries, have a look at "Biker Africa -- mobility doesn't just mean phones":

http://www.opendemocracy.net/damian-rafferty/biker-africa-mobility-doesnt-just-mean-phones

Android iPhone Retention Report

Now a days approximately every one is now connected to digital devices whether it is a T.V. or any other device.

@rodrigottr

@Android iPhone


That is something easily observed! Apps will never be the greatest way of making richer an echosystem. Take a look if you have any friend smartphone users with more then 40 years. Most of the ones I know don't even know how to install an app!

Apps ain't a strong way of making users loyal. And that is also a why I believe HTML5 will be even more interesting for new developers.

@rodrigottr

@Baron95

I have never said Steve Jobs was not competitive.

What I said is that his most important goal was not to compete for making money but for being the greatest innovator. He knew money would come in consequence. That is what the Harvard Article said.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Gang

Sorry its the super-busy time now in mobile consulting (am in London today and Manchester tomorrow doing some events about how to use mobile in the recruiting industry, then heading off to Brazil next week to talk about mobile there, then off to Vietnam, then South Africa, etc..)

I wanted to mention - that guys, could we 'please' stick to the topic here? Lets not turn this blog about mobile the first communication technology, the only media and only mass market electronic money platform to reach the whole planet - to be an argument about what Apple did or does or didn't do? Ok? I'll happily come and debate with you about the Apple stuff where I post about Apple, but this blog was not about Apple for the most part.. Lets talk about how we make life better for the lady in Africa who gets robbed for her cash, or fisherman who is illiterate, how the farmer can get info to save his crops, or how we teach those in the Emerging World to read and write etc.. ok? Lets stick to this topic, most who come to read this blog, will be interested in the Emerging World view to technology and won't care about our weekly quarrels about Apple this and Nokia that and Samsung the other. Ok?

Thanks (PS obviously the moment I get the chance, I'll remove the spam that always appears when I travel a bit more heavily haha)

Tomi Ahonen :-)

VogueBagSale.com

I just required some information and was searching on Google for it. I visited each page that came on first page and didn’t got any relevant result then I thought to check out the second one and got your blog. This is what I wanted!

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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