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September 07, 2011

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Vikram

"RIM is mysteriously unable to capitalize on the Nokia collapse..."

Actually this isn't mysterious at all. RIM, like Nokia, had a non-competitive OS as compared to iOS and Android. What is plaguing RIM is what hurt Nokia. RIM is benefiting from the enterprise mail hooks and BBM which is preventing it from utter collapse a la Nokia, otherwise it would have a sharper downfall much like Nokia. RIM's OS, like Symbian^3 and MeeGo, are not up to snuff when compared to to Android and iOS and customers know this and are voting with their wallets.

I do have to say though, that the Nokia MeeGo phone that they released is beautiful. Nokia is the only company that can make hardware like Apple in terms of quality and design aesthetic. It is too bad that they couldn't compete on software and had to go the MSFT route. I do expect that the upcoming Nokia/MSFT phones to be outstanding and better than Android and nearly on level with iOS assuming that MSFT can get the WP7 Mango version up to snuff in time this fall. Am looking forward to seeing it.

I don't blame Elop. If he had stuck with Symbianm or MeeGo, the nearly the exact same predicament would have befell Nokia. Nokia's software just isn't up to snuff post iPhone and neither is the software development ecosystem for third party developers as compared to the quality of tools and ease of development as compared to iOS and Android.

Leebase

Hi Tomi, it will be fun to watch and see how close your numbers are. To what do you credit the growth of the iPhone to 25% of the market. What has changed in your estimate of how big a market there is for a $600 phone? A phone with no keyboard option? A phone who's hit form factor has been copied by everyone, and a phone that has a poorer camera, antenna....well...just about everything...than Nokia phones have had for years?

Clearly your new estimates show that you've changed your mind on some of the areas you've long used in predicting a decline in the iPhone's fortunes.

Lee

Peter

tomi, you underestimated Symbian Belle in Q4, underestimated Meego N9 in Q3/Q4, overestimate WP7.5.
My guess is
Meego N9 Q3 1M,Q4 3M
Symbian Anna Q3 5M
Symbian Belle Q4 5M
WP7.5 Q4 1M
Feature Phones Q3 10M, Q4 12 M
----------------------------------
Total Q3 16M, Q4 21M

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Vikram, LeeBase and Peter

Vikram - I hear you, but the 'mystery' part is, that Nokia's E-Series (all Symbian and all in utter collapse) was created by Nokia to be Nokia's clone of the Blackberry, from similar QWERTY-keypad Blackberry look-alike phones, to the business services with the E-Series unit. So when Nokia's E-Series collapses with Symbian, the likely replacement for someone addicted to messaging and demanding a full QWERTY phone is not an iPhone haha.. That is what I mean, for the E-Series the typical customer is exactly Blackberry, both enterprise users (Blackberry and E-Series had two thirds of the world's enterprise/corporate phone accounts, Blackberry owning most of North America and E-Series most of rest of world) and the youth heavily texting-crazy segments were the second target for E-Series exactly like it was for the Blackberry.

And if you say Blackberry is failing - it is only failing in the USA, it is GROWING sales in many European, Asian, Latin American and African markets. Just the latest survey by Kantar of UK consumers for example found Blackberry now ahead of the iPhone in that market. Similarly stats from this week by Gartner of Middle Eastern smartphone market have Blackberry at number 2 with Android at 3 and iPhone at 4. But Blackberry international sales are not growing fast enough to match the heavy declines in the USA. If what you wrote was true. Blackberry would be declining.

On Nokia software not 'up to snuff' sorry - evidence says contrary. Nokia Symbian S^3 since Q4 of last year was good enough. Not as good as iPhone but good enough. Windows was never as good as the Mac, but after Windows 3.0 became 'good enough', Windows flew past the Mac. Nokia had good enough software from Q4 of last year and the stats I have posted here on the Nokia Q4 numbers I crunched during my summer vacation prove it clearly.

And on the user-friendliness of the Nokia software, if you say was Symbian a pain to develop for, I totally agree yes. That is why Nokia bought Qt and adapted it to provide one simple set of easy-to-use tools that allow you to create apps for Symbian, MeeGo and S40 (and Android) - and users of Qt say it is BY FAR the fastest, easiest-to-use development environment. I am no longer a programmer haha (my last languages were Fortran, Cobol, C - not C+ haha, first edition C etc) and cannot comment from personal view, but that is what programmers familiar with Symbian, iOS, Android and Qt - say - Qt is by far the best. Sorry. Your point was once true, it is no longer true. Today an OS strategy and ecosystem strategy built on Symbian and MeeGo and Qt (and Ovi) would be the best, and the shift to Windows Phone is an utterly dumb move by Nokia that will kill Nokia before mass market WP7 phones reach the market. I expect Nokia to be sold before the year is done.

LeeBase - nothing changed. Apple delayed its iPhone 5 launch. I predicted very clearly last year for Q2, that the iPhone sales would benefit from iPhone 4 launch and then have a monster quarter for Q3. This year that is likely one quarter shifted back, so like I said, assuming the iPhone 5 launches last week of September, we'll see people standing in lines to buy it, and Apple's next quarter - this time Q4 not Q3 - will be the monster. The jump is the same level as I had last year and the year before. Nothing changed.

Don't you agree, Lee, that IF there was a parallel QWERTY iPhone 5, more expensive and yes, more thick - it would sell to many who refuse the pure touch type of phone? Maybe it would add 5% more sales or maybe 50% more sales, but there DEFINITELY are more people like me, who want the iPhone but who need the ability (or think they need the ability) to type texts blindly.. hence we need a real QWERTY. And as long as Apple refuses to serve that segment, they are abandoning sales. As this QWERTY keyboard version of the iPhone would add a modest cost component whose manufacturing costs would be of the order of 5 dollars or 10 dollars max, but would allow 50 dollar higher price, there is MASSIVE profit that Apple is now leaving for customers to eat. Don't you agree that SOME sales are not coming to Apple simply because there is no QWERTY version? And the intelligent company would take that profit too?

As to 600 dollar limit, I keep telling that I am amazed how Apple keeps pushing that envelope and all the data we had, including a recent Morgan Stanley survey of handset price pyramid - have been proven wrong by Apple. I salute Apple for that. I trust you are not arguing the poor African who earns a dollar a day and has a 25 dollar basic phone, will buy a 600 dollar phone in this decade? So if Apple stretches the market now, there is certainly an absolute limit where the iPhone cannot go? Or do you disagree?

Peter - THANKS ! That is EXACTLY what I always hope for when I post something with a scenario for the future, to hear someone else's view, in this case someone brave enough to post some numbers... Good thinking.

Now, where we disagree.. I see you think MeeGo N9 will sell far better than me. Did you remember that none of the big countries get the N9. When the N8 sold in all Nokia markets, it did about 3.5 to 4 million units according to some analyst who had dug into Nokia S^3 sales, I forget who it was. Total S^3 was 5M. So if the N8 can only do at best 4M then I think your estimate is way too optimistic with Elop in charge. Yes, if there was a sane CEO who blanketed the world with the N9 as long as its the hot Nokia phone (and especially - especially as Apple seems to be delaying the iPhone 5) - then yes, I agree, 4M total and 3M in Q4 would be very reasonable - we just heard today the pricing for SIM-free (unsubsidised) N9 pricing from Singapore - will be 799 Singapore Dollars ie about 469 Euros or what was it, 669 US dollars. Very competitive. If the N9 was released broadly, with those specs, it should do well - even more so, with the Symbian sales boycott, the N9 would feed a hungry Nokia client base..

But you suggest only 1M WP7 phones. It may be that haha, we won't know. It depends very much on the early reception of the phone, certainly the buzz on 'Sea Ray' (the 'leaked' prototype WP7 phone by Nokia) has not been anything as stong as for the N9. But remember, Nokia will oversaturate the world with the launch marketing for that phone, its Elop's baby, he needs it to be a hit. It may 'fizzle' in Q1 of next year, if there are problems, but the early sales should be huge, with a big Nokia and Microsoft marketing push. I am sure Elop has an internal target saying they have to ship more than 4M so he can say its better than the N8 and is the best launch of a new Nokia phone ever.. Whether they reach that, who knows but I am sure the WP7 phone will outsell the MeeGo phone, that is too easy for Nokia to 'arrange' (shipment problems with N9 etc)

But we'll see soon enough. Thanks Peter

Thank you all for the comments

Tomi Ahonen :-)

LeeBase

Alright, Tomi. I'll take this as your much belated "I was wrong about Apple". You didn't call the peak, and Apple hasn't peaked, and you called for a decline (in share) which isn't happening at all.

I've always agreed with you than a Qwerty version and Nano version would sell very well. My disagreement was your portraying that Apple was in dire need -- in jeopardy. Yes, Apple is leaving money on the table, but that's what Apple does. Apple left money on the table by not producing a Mac "netbook".

I've also disagreed with you in that Apple had plenty of growth available to them by the fact that they weren't on many of the mobile networks.

You predicted not much of a bump at all from Verizon....and yet AT&T saw no mass exodus, and the iPhone (the old iPhone) became the number one seller on Verizon. The even OLDER iPhone 3G is the second most sold phone on AT&T.

What this shows is that Apple had NOT reached it's level of the market. I agree with you that little of the Nokia implosion _should_ benefit Apple. The explanation, IMHO, is that at 17% of the market, Apple had NOT yet reached all the folks willing and able to buy their product.

Look at the last quarter. The iPhone is a year old and still leading. It SHOULD have fallen...in years previous it HAD fallen in that quarter as expectations for the new model hurts sales.

I'm saying that sales DID fall for the same reason, but that the growth from Verizon and the white iPhone and other new carriers in the world were lifting sales hiding the usual slump.

This portends a HUGE blockbuster when the next iPhone is released...as Verizon customers get their chance to get a new iPhone....as China Mobile is brought in, as Sprint is brought in...and as the iPhone 4 becomes the "cheap" model....as Verizon now gets an expensive and cheap model just like AT&T and the #1 and #2 phones on Verizon become iPhones.

We both agree that a cheaper iPhone is coming....when it does, we'll see another 10% bump in market share practically over night.

The big question, IMHO, is will Apple be able to make enough iPhones for these projections to come true.

Lee

Baron95

Tomi said..."Don't you agree, Lee, that IF there was a parallel QWERTY iPhone 5, more expensive and yes, more thick - it would sell to many who refuse the pure touch type of phone? Maybe it would add 5% more sales or maybe 50% more sales,..."

I disagree. Tomi, you are making and have been making a classic mistake of thinking that iPhone sales are constrained by demand. They are not. They are constrained by supply.

You saw a 60% increase in iPhone sales in the US simply by removing one supply constraint - making it also available on Verizon, instead of just AT&T. In Japan and China (huge markets) it is still only available on marginal/small carriers. It is still not available via operators in critical markets like South Korea.

Apple can double iPhone sales easily, by making it available via say China Mobile, Sprint, DoCoMo, SKT, Bharti, etc. Same form factor, same price. If they had the supply and removed the carrier availability constraint, they'd sell tens of millions more.

So, if you accept that iPhone supply is constrained (by screen and processor manufacturing capacity for instance), adding a QWERTY keyboard will not ad a single iPhone sale. It would simply shift sales from one model to the other.

And at what cost?

Doubling the number of iPhone 4 SKUs from 6 to 12?

Diverting the OS team to support keyboard input instead of a critical feature like iCloud?

Fragmenting the apps into apps that work well with keyboard and apps that work well with touch?

Confusing the users with multiple input methods?

That is why Nokia and RIM are dying and Apple is thriving. What you are suggesting, has a bunch of negatives and no positives at all.

Now - 5 years from now - after Apple is on every network *AND* sold to simply use the Internet for calls bypassing the carriers - and they have most major markets saturated - then, it may make sense to add a QWERTY or cheaper handset.

But my guess is that Apple will disrupt in other ways - possibly an NFC or Bluetooth detachable keyboard or some other input method.

I'm sorry to say, but you are still thinking 1990s when Apple and Google are thinking 2020s

Joe

Regarding RIM, what I am seeing here in Canada in a business context is that people are dropping their Blackberries like hot potatoes and switching to iPhones. These same people are also considering the Samsung Galaxy S2 but many have already bought an iPad or iPad2 and want to "stick with the same ecosystem", so they buy an iPhone in the end.

Personally, I continue to buy Nokia for their travel-friendly 5-band GSM capability that no other manufacturer seems to have but everywhere around me it is iPhone, iPhone, iPhone. There is still lots of growth left for Apple.

virgil

@Joe - everywhere around you it is "iPhone, iPhone, iPhone" so you conclude that there is still lots of growth left for Apple? I'm confused.....

elmo

Speaking about Nokia,

Tomi you miss to comment the IPR shift from Nokia to MOSAID.

I can understand the agreement between Nokia and MODAID ... what it is totally incomprehensible , it is why in the agreement for Nokia IPR, given as a "gift" to MOSAID, Microsoft is going to take 1/3 of the possible revenues that MOSAID can generate using the gifted IPR.

Why Microsoft should get money from Nokia IPR ????

Sound Elop forgot again that Ballmer is not anymore his boss.

Tchuss

e_lm_70

LeeBase

@Baron95 - I think you are wrong about the keyboard and right about most everything else.

Yes...Apple has been constrained mostly by ability to produce and by not being on all the carriers.

Still, there ARE customers who so value a keyboard that they don't even consider an iPhone. Those customers (and one survey pegged it as 1/3rd of the market) would not be merely shifting from one model to another.

I just think keyboards go against Steve Job's aesthetic and it simply doesn't matter how many more iPhone's such a model could sell.

Lee

peter

@Tomi, my numbers are for those sold to consumers (directly and indirectly)
If it is talking about the units sold to carriers/retailers/distributors, Meego N9 could be much higher, 2M in Q3, 6M in Q4, and 2M for WP7.5.

Flying off the shelf for Meego N9 is a surely thing. Consumers/carriers/distributors/retailers are all loading up to pank the rude criminal Steven Elop and Chris Weber.

Joe

@virgil, I'm referring to purchasing plans, not what people already own.

SteveWaugh

@LeeBase I agree with @Baron95 - it's not that the QWERTY loving users are switching from touch-only to kbd-iphones, it's that you will split your total set of iPhones amongst QWERTY loving users and traditional touch fans. Still sell the same number of phones because you are demand constrained but sell them to different populations and hence shifting sales from one model to another.

In addition to @Baron95 concerns about the impacts of the additional SKU I think it will increase the inventory you have to keep and make it harder to predict supply chain based on actual preferences. Real impact is that it dilutes what the Apple engineering team can focus on.

Earendli Star

I agree with Peter on Symbian. I think that Belle might be capturing some extra market share, also considering the new (cheap!) phones coming out (600, 700, 701) and the appeal (free maps, last Symbian phones, etc.) they could have with Nokia users looking to update their phones (e.g. outdated 5800s, etc.).

Feel reassured, this latest move on Symbian is only to keep the ailing OS for a couple o months more, thus avoiding Nokia's total collapse and wider repercussions on the migration to WP.

Instead, I believe that the N9 will not sell that much, not because it is not worth it, but rather because it's being boycotted by TH Elop. Supply will be much lower than demand, although I believe many people from major countries -where N9 will not sell- will try to get it by buying it online, e.g. Germans from Switzerland. Summarising: its success or not will depend on supply, not demand.

Finally, regarding iPhone, its success over BB is that iPhone is now cool, much more than BB. So, unless BB is able to revert this trend and change this aura, iPhone success will continue increasing.

Baron95

@Leebase - I have no doubt that some, even many, won't buy an iPhone without a physical keyboard. My point is that, being supply constrained, Apple has bigger/better opportunities to grow by remaining a 5-sku handset maker and broadning reach. Would Apple be more profitable if it launched an iPhone 4 QWERTY or if they launched the existing iPhone with China Mobile, KDDI and Sprint with a few extra OS features. That is the trade off.

I'm still convinced that Apple will provide a non-standard solution to QWERTY iPhone. It may simply be a sticky Bluetooth or NFC membrane keyboard that you lay on top of the iPhone screen or any surface.

This way, they will a pease the QWERTY lovers, while at the same time showing them that they don't need the keyboard as much as they thought. They may evolve to use mostly on-screen keyboard and pull out the stick on QWERTY on the rare occasions when they need to type a long email.

Again, Apple will disrupt, and patent, and others will take years to catch on.

Peter

@Earendli Star , "Supply will be much lower than demand"
thats my main concerning too. The criminal-prone Elop can do anything to destroy nokia.

LeeBase

@Baron95 - we agree fundamentally that Apple has still been constrained by inability to supply (whether manufacturing or carrier relationships) such that there is plenty of growth for them in just overcoming those two obstacles.

I do disagree that Apple will EVER add a keyboard to their phones. When Apple doesn't think a feature is a good idea, they won't add it no matter how much folks clamor for it.

I just think that WERE Apple to add a keyboard model, there would be a net sales increase and not just a spreading out of sales over two different models.

That is -- assuming they could manufacture enough.

Just like there would be SOME market for an LTE iPhone even if it had a poor battery life. And a huge market for a cheap iPhone (not just lower price, but plasticy, underpowered cheap). Of course there is a market for that type of phone.

Apple just isn't going to put a phone in every type of market. They strongly believe in the "less is more" philosophy. Apple simply does not play by those rules....every price point, every form factor...multiple quality levels.

My disagreement with Tomi isn't that Apple COULD sell MANY more iPhones "if only....". My disagreement is his thesis that Apple NEEDS to do those things to survive. That, because Apple isn't doing these things, it's profits are "temporary".

Apple isn't in the mobile phone business. Apple is in the mobile platform business (iPhone, iPad, iPod Touch, iTunes, App Store, iCloud). The iPhone just happens to also be a phone.

Lee

funny t-shirts

I heard a rumor that the iphone5 will have a shashaint relay system that interfaces directly to a raz a9 z9ff processor. That will be more common in touch screens in 2012 I think in the 200+ price points.

Robo

Hi Tomi, thanks for another interesting analysis. One thing I would like to add that we all might underestimate WP7. I also don't think it will have significant jump in market share next year, but in long run it might get comfortable 10% to 20%. If I may quote you: "users of Qt say it is BY FAR the fastest, easiest-to-use development environment" - totally agree with this statement, except when it comes to WP7. Some developers are literally shocked how fast is WP7 development. In our company we see 2 to 3 times increase of speed of development, comparing to Qt/QML. And we are very experienced Qt dev. house. Very interesting to see if it will help advancing WP7 market share.

sve

Great comments as usual. I believe WP may yet prevail against Android, the consequence of being made by a world-class OS software shop. Microsoft can go toe-to-toe with Apple on anything: cloud, programming tools, communications, applications, languages, etc. Google develops Android, but it is a web services / advertising shop at its core - not an OS/applications shop.

I also see parallels in the HP predicament to Nokia: a company that sells hardware and is dependent on another for its software loses profitability. It seems longterm survival means you have to control both the hardware and the software.

Apple certainly is supply constrained today and they will grow to a point. But there are limits to how far Apple will succeed in the smartphone market as their offerings begin to overserve what their customers really need. Good voice and internet with passable A/V/GPS is the basic need. Lower cost rivals will begin to meet this while Apple will continue pushing the high end like cloud services, home audio/video integration, etc.

TechExp

Steve jobs has already replied to the issue you talked, Tomi. This is what he said, "Its either my way, or the highway." Clearly Apple doesnt need to do anything silly, as its leading in most aspects of the mobile ecosystem.

I feel the 2012 will be a huge year for blackberry. It has started making smartphones with the QNX based OS, which we have seen in its tablets. This platform could just act as a saviour for RIM's declining sales in the U.S. Also Nokia will be back with the MS Win OS based phones. So the then leaders in smartphones, BB and Nokia have changed their platforms to compete with Apple and Android. They promise a lot. Can they deliver something extraordinary?

SteveWaugh

@LeeBase, you said:

"I just think that WERE Apple to add a keyboard model, there would be a net sales increase and not just a spreading out of sales over two different models.

That is -- assuming they could manufacture enough."

I don't disagree, but if Apple could manufacture enough in the first place, why not just manufacture touch-only phones ?

Until we have truly hit a point where Apple is no longer supply constrained I see no reason for them to add an additional SKU.

LeeBase

@SteveWaugh - I agree with both you and Baron that Apple is not GOING to add a keyboard. I merely disagree with the notion that sales wouldn't increase. What Tomi is arguing for Apple to do is to be more like Nokia, Samsung and Motorola -- have products in many form factors at many price points and quality levels. Gee...imagine IF ONLY Apple would behave like a normal company...why they could WIN in mobile! Tomi has gone so far as to say that UNLESS Apple does these things, it's profits will vanish...being temporary.

You bring up the REAL reason Apple isn't going to do this...multiple sku's. Apple is reaping huge rewards by doing less than other companies, but doing what it does do....VERY well. Less sku's means manufacturing efficiencies. Having only high quality products has garnered Apple customer loyalty that has it's customers lining up around the block to eagerly buy each new Apple product.

Apple also benefits from a much simpler platform for it's developers to target.

And on it goes. There are good and sound business reasons for why Apple makes the choices it does. They are not CONVENTIONAL choices...and Tomi doesn't appear to "get it" yet.

Lee

sve

The QWERTY keyboard comments indicate that there's an opportunity for someone to create an add-on plastic iphone skin with a keyboard built in to add that functionality.

Eurofan

@Peter: I also want to thank you for making ballsy predictions for Nokia Q4. Except I'm not sure Nokia can ramp up production of N9 too much given what I read everywhere that Nokia plans to make 100K N9s to start. If the N9 gets so hot that Swiss and Singapore people can buy one and sell it tomorrow on eBay for $300 mark-up that would be almost as cool as selling 2M, wouldn't it, and would certainly get some press attention. I too think WP phones will flop big time, there is just no demand for them and advertising can't do anything about that. Symbian looks great with Belle and that was always the issue, wasn't it, that the UX of Symbian needed to get up to date. So Symbian could do better than anyone expects since it tends to be attached to phones which work well as phones, which is a selling point. Peter, I like your bold predictions and will be watching the next four months with excitement.

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