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September 16, 2011



Yup, totally agree Tomi, Android is killing RIM especially among the consumer side. I would argue that iPhone has started eroding RIM on the enterprise side - but only very marginally - but I expect that to accelerate over time.

I keep arguing this point with Tomi, but RIM's drop is due to the same reason as with Nokia and with Window's Mobile - an inferior OS. BB OS, Symbian and Windows Mobile were very inferior experiences vs. iOS which "inspired" Android and that is what killed them. Android spread like wildfire because it was superior and was free for the other 3rd party manufacturers who couldn't build an OS in the same class as iOS, which Android is, and was the closest thing to the iPhone that was accessible and affordable to the masses.


I think that RIM should provide their plan B & C now.

Assuming their plan A is QNX OS,
their plan B should be RIM android devices with BBM.
and their plan C should be only the BBM software for Android, WP7, iOS and quite the hardware manufacturing.


See Tomi. This is exactly what would have happened to Nokia with Vanjoki.. both were incompenent with their own software and can't build a strong ecosystem around tablets/clouds/entertainment/everything.

Nokia will be in a great position with WIN8 tablets and WIN8 phones. Believe. RIM will join Nokia eventually.. they are already heavily in bed with MS.


It's ironic really.

Tomi writes dozens of "bloodbath" articles and thousands of tweets.. informing us of how badly Apple was doing compared to their 'rivals' . Rim would 'definitely' gain market share... teenagers, who like to text while blindfolded, love Blackberrys.... Blackberry is the number one phone in Burkina Faso... etc.

As for Nokia... Well they had "the perfect strategy" to convert dumb phone users to Nokia smarts. Nokia already sold more smart phones than their three... No, wait...two!... No, one... closest rival(s). Nokia invented 'everything' first... and tasted better than Coca-Cola! What could possibly go wrong?

Quite simply, the majority of the (new to) smart phone buying public went out and bought something else.

Tomi, just at the time you were writing your iPhone 'obituary' (April 2010), the two largest players in the industry were starting their decline. By the second half of last year that decline had turned into a tumble. This year we are witnessing the fall. This, of course, was predicted by many of those 'dumb and incompetent', largely, American pundits.

Don't you think it's about time that you stopped berating journalists and analysts just because they dont see things your way? Especially as it now appears that many of them were right! I believe you should take another look at your smart phone market 'model' to try to discover how the 'wrong' players fell into the bloodbath.


It's not clear to me why your headline is what it is, because it is simplistic and misleading. As equally simplistic and misleading as if someone said the ONLY reason for BB's decline was iPhone. Clearly, obviously, today the combination of Android and iPhone is killing BB at all price points and phone types of the smartphone market. And today's RIM news could be foreseen as far back as June of 2010 in my responses to your iPhone obituary, though like you, most industry and financial analysts couldn't see it.

As Baron95 pointed out, iPhone on AT&T in 2007 started BB's decline, altho it was masked by BB’s growth on the other carriers (who stressed BB in order to compete for attention against the iPhone). But when the other carriers, especially Verizon, gave Android marketing support (support that used to be given to BB) in winter 2009, then that decline began on the other carriers. BB tried to escape by going international, but Android and iPhone, started to turn the tide on BB even in those countries by mid 2010. In the US, Verizon got the iPhone earlier this year, and in another month, Sprint will as well, so BB will take another beating.

So BB overshipped at the end of last year when it boosted shipments to 14.2m and 14.9m, in a desperate attempt to outship iPhone, having been “taunted” by Steve Jobs. The channel was stuffed, and now RIM is cutting shipments while still trying to sell lots of older inventory at reduced prices (like Nokia). Inventories have doubled to $1.37B on RIM's balance sheet.

In any case, iPhone really won’t kill any vendor simply on sales volume since it is supply-constrained as Piot notes; however, it will kill off vendors by sucking up most of the profit. By using its brand, cross-market (iTunes, iPad) expansion, and the large media interest, Apple is seducing/forcing vendors to divert R&D effort and funds to building an ecosystem, software (plus cloud) platform, and related non-smartphone devices; most of which are not core competencies for most of these vendors. RIM diverted its A-team to create the Playbook and unwisely spent additional effort on music subscriptions; talent and energy that previously would’ve been assigned to developing and releasing new updated smartphones more frequently.

Subtly, over time, the market has changed, and stuck-in-the-past pundits have obscured it and made it even harder for vendors to see it quickly. Trying to catch up from their late start, these vendors try to zig to where Apple is or was, but as they head there, Apple has already started to zag in still another direction. That's how Apple is doing the killing.


Oh boy. Tomi, I expect better than that.

What were people buying BBs for? Email, email, email - and some teens for BBM (free messaging).

The first iPhone did not support Exchange/ActiveSync, it did not support push and it did not support MMS. So, how likely were BB users to go for an iPhone? Right. Not at all.

Since iOS 3 and 4 Apple has the best Exchange support in the industry. Multiple Exchange accounts, hardware encryption, remote wipe, MMS, free administration/deployment tools. Everything is there for 0% of the BB Enterprise Server's cost. No Android phone comes remotely close, and not even WP7 is yet fully competitive. And iOS 5, due out within less than a month, will also bring free messaging between iOS devices (all of them) and (this is a rumor) maybe even computers.

Yes, the iPhone was not targeting BB users when it came out (and your 2007 through 2009 number correctly reflects that), but just extending that timeline and saying "it must be the same now" is not sufficient at all. Yes, Apple's market share did only grow 2% after 2009, but we do not know at all, how many customers Apple lost to Android (because of the AT&T situation in the US, limited carrier deals in major European countries, only being on an also-ran carrier in China, not offering 4G, etc.). This figure can easily be north of 10%, and it would require a lot of BB customers to fill the gap, which is now 12% in this example. I do not know the exact customer movements, but neither do you.

I am not saying that iOS is stealing more BB customers than Android - I simply do not know that. I do know, that there are people moving from BBs to iOS though. I do not really believe in anecdotal evidence, but I certainly know more than 20 former BB users that moved to an iPhone, and maybe 5 that went to Android (plus 2 that moved back to a feature phone plus iPod touch for cost reasons). All of them in the last year. Apple is stealing BB customers, and calling people idiots spreading "nonsense and myths" when your only argument is outdated data... does not really convince.


Damn, Tomi, it is sad to watch your self destruction

Anyone can be excused for mistakes about iPhone, though Leebase Kevin and Baron95 were spot on that stuff - the ones of the very few here from those days

First I thought it was some sort of Elop hate that was destroying you. But this post shows that it is much deeper then that. It seems that any real world events that are contrary to the model of the world you constructed make you lash out. And call people names like "incompetent fools full of bullshit"

Well, those incompetent fools just decimated your argument about BB and iPhone in comments, and you still did not bother to reply to a single one of them despite your twitter floods in the past 2 days. As you did not bother to reply to a single comment to your previous "Why carriers hate Skype post".

It is your blog, you are not getting directly paid for it and all, it is your hobby, so you can do whatever you want with it. But there are some people commenting here,with a hope of discussing things with you, expecting your reply, who still believe your promise that you will reply to every single comment. Nobody made you make that promise, you did it yourself, multiple times, publicly. You said that you will and are replying to every single comment on your blog.

Have you checked your comment reply ratio on your blog lately? Haven't counted exactly, but my impression is that in the last 3-4 months you have replied to no more then 20% of comments on your blog. And less then 50% of comments that came in the first 48hrs, before your published first reply. So please stop promising everyone a reply - it is a blatant lie at this point.

Getting back to your analysis quality, and the sources you use as beyond any question of credibility for your psychopath Elop rants, what do you think about the fact that even Intel is abandoning Meego? That great OS that was supposed to save Nokia, but Elop killed?

What about Microsoft over Skype boycott, when every carrier is getting ready to push and subsidize WP Mango phones, and some of them - AT&T, Orange and soon T-Mobile are already doing that. What about HTC launching two new Windows Phones for holiday season? They do not international launch events before they get string carrier support. How does that play into your Skype boycott theory?

And about that Symbian boycott. If Nokia did not have a profit warning already-what are the chances that they will do as bad as you think? And talking about Symbian boycott-I haven't seen you acknowledging Gartner numbers for Q2 that showed that Nokia smartphone sales to end users were much better then Nokia reported and the problem was inventory push in q1 to carries all along?

What if Nokia reports an OK Q3? All your anti-Elop theories seem to be collapsing already.


@tomi, iphone is killing BB in USA (enterprise sector), bankers/real estate agents/government officials are all switching from BB to iPhone; Android is killing BB in Europe (consumer sector).
That's fair competition.

But Nokia is different story. It is Elop who was hired by US short sellers to kill from inside. Symbian consumers are immune from US media propaganda and its agencies. Thats why they put Elop as Nokia CEO under the guise of MS Trojan Horse. Actually he is the ciminal who has to be tried and put into prison neighboring with Madolf, Key Lay.


@karlim, "What if Nokia reports an OK Q3? All your anti-Elop theories seem to be collapsing already."
are you dreaming ? by which criteria, you think nokia will be okay for Q3 ?

It will be much worse than Q2 if you exclude the money transfer from MS which is illegal.


"are you dreaming ? by which criteria, you think nokia will be okay for Q3 ?"

Oh @Peter, and all the rest Nokia/Elop conspiracy theorists, why do you make it so easy? :)

I was talking to Tomi, and asking about his Nokia Q3 projections - 12.9 Symbian smartphones shipped.If the numbers were really that bad - we would already had a profit warning.

So anything for Nokia in smartphone shipments above 13.5 million would be OK compared to Tomi's projections and your conspiracy theories



And I love your disagreement with Tomi over BB. So iPhone and Android is killing BB for some reason (crap OS I guess). But Nokia's crap Symbian OS was immune to that and it is criminal Elop who is killing it.

Care to elaborate on this big difference between BB OS an Symbian?


Android is doing what MeeGo was supposed to do. Linux-based, relatively open for everyone, fit for smartphones+tablets+netbooks. MeeGo arrived too late to this party. Android had already eaten MeeGo's lunch. Two years ago MeeGo/Maemo was still ahead with hte N900, but then they did not move fast enough and blew the window of opportunity.


It's hard to believe that Tomi himself who wrote this blog.
I guess there must be a hacker hacked his blogs account and wrote this to sabotage his credibility and analytic quality.

But if it was Tomi himself then this is no longer different than a parody of mobile industry analysts, in addition of the Elop's hates and couple of (funny) conspiracy theories.


@apollo_dev_team . @Karlim,

it is not conspiracy theory. it is day-robbing from US short sellers. man, who has eyes can see it except you guys who are so blind. you 'd better donate your eyes to those who are born blind !


@apollo_dev_team . @Karlim,

it is not conspiracy theory. it is day-robbing from US short sellers. man, who has eyes can see it except you guys who are so blind. you 'd better donate your eyes to those who are born blind ! instead of writing crap comments to waste resources.
it would be pathetic if you are hired to spread "conspiracy theory" to cover the day-robbing.


@Karlim, BB is crap since day 1, Symian is number 1 since day 1 that's the difference. Wall street bankers install BB's enterprise services to boast RIM's stock day-in day-out. using its controlled media to spread BB's addiction. it is not BB addiction, it is wall-street money addiction which distorts everything till Steve Jobs's Iphone comes to the stage. WS can not cover crap BB for ever. WS reluctantly to switch to apple initially till today it accelerates the process after it boast BB's stock price to $145. then short sell it to $22.

WS has no love of Steve Jobs nor iPhone but the fiat money it creates from thin air.

It is a pity tomi knows nothing about WS financing. so his mobile analysis can not hit the point most of the time.

Symbian is different. it doesn't rely on US market so US media propaganda lost its influence on Symbian consumers. without US so called enterprise market, BB is dead. nokia can still keep it as number one mobile phone sellers.

That's why they hire Steve Elop to kill nokia from inside under the guise of MS trojan horse. He is not MS trjon horse. He is commiting crime from day 1 like he sold macromedia within 3 months after he was promoted as CEO. Steve Elop is professional destroyer of WS hired criminal.

He has no clue about software, marketing, management, execution.

He is much worse than previous management team.

Now we all know why.

Steve Elop is on US WS short sellers mission to destroy nokia from inside.


"you 'd better donate your eyes to those who are born blind
instead of writing crap comments to waste resources."

Are you for real?


maybe Peter's theory is a little bit exaggerated but points to the right direction: Elop mission is to do MS (or Wall Street if you like more) interests.

1) defence:
Kill MeeGo beacause if it eventually have succeded it would've been a very big treat to MS. And not only for mobile but for the whole OS market because after the server market already dominated by linux if also the mobile market would be dominated by linux (a true linux not that surrogate that is android) then we would've seen a contagion also to the nascent tablets market, IVI etc... till the Desktop and Enterprise (where actually MS make its moneys)

2) conquer new markets:
kill Symbian to make room for Windows Phone

People who hate Elop hate him because they understood that the new strategy wasn't necessary to save Nokia but for the long time MS interests.

Nokia could've been saved just with a better execution. Look at N9 and at the new Symbian Belle: they are very close to android and iPhone and probably definitively better in other six month. But they took too much time, a sign of not competitiveness in SW. So I agree that some big change was necessary to regain competitiveness, but losing their independence was a too high price.

Even the new strategy could have been executed in a more sane way. Why on hearth a CEO has to do that infamous Burning Platform memo? That memo haven't helped Nokia in any way. Contrary it made enormous damages to Nokia.
Could a CEO don't understand that? No, so the only explanation is that he made it intentionally to justify an otherwise unneeded and too suspicious change in strategy.

Without that memo today Nokia would have been in a better position capable to regain a good market share autonomously without becoming a MS slave.
Now the best for Nokia is a miracle on the Symbian front and a cold WP front


It looks like BB is pretty much going down very badly do you guys think Nokia+Microsoft will be able to capture their enterprise market. With Microsoft's already well proven enterprise products like office and exchange I think IF Nokia+Microsoft execute well they could decimate BB in this domain...

フェラガモ 靴

I think that RIM should provide their plan B & C now.

Assuming their plan A is QNX OS,
their plan B should be RIM android devices with BBM.
and their plan C should be only the BBM software for Android, WP7, iOS and quite the hardware manufacturing.


while subject is provocative, too much of apple fawning in comments section ! If you are so much into it, buy it stocks and just shut up. Its irritating to see every article, comments section biased towards it. Spend some of that time in loving your family !

LED street light

Recently had the news, intelligent mobile phone manufacturer RIM company are going to reduce its BlackBerry Playbook its BlackBerry tablet computer costs, and the company also seems to be for the money will ever much-anticipated tablet computer products to bring some new update, for example the new Video Video stores, etc. Microsoft


Tomi, there are flaws in you logic here. Correlating RIM's market share fall with Android's rise does not mean the former was CAUSED by the latter. Stating causation assumes that people purchased an Android device instead of a Blackberry. This ignores the possibility that many people bought Android devices without even considering a BB purchase.

You also over discount that many, many people may bought an iPhone instead of a Blackberry. Just because Apple's market share hardly grew during the time RIM's fell does not mean people were not choosing iPhones over BB's. If the iPhone had remained a poor email client I am sure it's market share would have declined and more BB's would have been sold.

RIM's problem is that the smartphone market went from one dominated by business users to one dominated by consumers. As even you have stated, RIM's business smartphone market matured a while ago and offered little room for growth. So there was no way for RIM to maintain or increase market share without making it big with consumers. Obviously, they have not. Part of this has been because of better options from the competition (including Apple) and part has been because of poor execution.

Finally, take a close look what Apple is doing to attract business users, especially small and medium businesses. An iPhone may cost more than a typical BB, but because you do not need BES, the TCO is less. Plus, they have put iOS device management into Lion server (which is dirt cheap) and have started programs like JointVenture. These sorts of things are going to further erode BB's market share. I see no equivalent from the Android side, at least not yet.


@Leebase I agree with almost everything else you say in comments here, but we will have to agree to disagree on Burning Platforms/Feb 11th thing.

It probably had some influence, but we really disagree on how much and if there was any market shifting effect from them. And I think the current Blackberry collapse just proves it. BB did not have Feb 11th or burning platforms memo - but they are collapsing all the same. Because of iPhone and Android.

Nokia just was way more up there much more exposed to Android and iPhone strengths so started to feel the pain earlier. If you project the Nokia market share losses from H2 2010 and account for acceleration of Android quality phones available, Feb 11th is barely a glitch in the downward trajectory. And very much in line to what is happening to BB now. If you include Nokia margin/profitability decline into equation caused by iPhone and Android - current Nokia results are surprisingly good.

@Peter So, according to you - not only Nokia/Symbian was a WallStreet perpetrated conspiracy, now we also have Blackberry/RIM. BB was a scheme by WS to earn billions on the way up, and when Jobs screwed it over for them with iPhone, they bribed BB co-CEOs or did some other nefarious scheme to earn even more money on BBs way down by short selling...

I guess, according to you - CIA and/or U.S. government controlled by WS bankers also killed Kennedies and perpetrated 9/11 to get control of mid East Oil too?

What a scary world you must be livin in. Not ready to donate my eyes to the likes of you, I will rather stay blind (with my eyes in my sockets) and going about my things, if the seers among us are really livin in this kind of world.

Or maybe our evil overloards are not Wall Street? Maybe they are Matrix? Should I take a Red or Blue pill?


RIM certainly has a tough fight on their hands to keep in the game, but rather than predict their demise, I plan to root for the underdog and hope they will have continued and future success. I think their last couple of quarters have been skewed by older hardware sell through and lack of new phones. I believe they will have better results next quarter with the higher margin OS7 devices.

As for their future OS, QNX, is in development mode (hence the playbook) which everyone calls a flop, but I see it as the testing grounds for QNX phones -- moving to anew OS is quite the venture and risk. QNX will be able to run multiple OS (android apps will be able to run on QNX.)

I think RIM is moving in the right direction, but will it be too late? Everyone will have to wait and see. If the QNX phone is a homerun, RIM can certainly get back in the game, if not, probably occupying a niche market for BB die hards will be the best case scenario for RIM. Although RIM is struggling against the competition they are still selling roughly 40-50 million BB per year and making billions and has 70+ million subscribers. Based on these numbers alone, RIM has years before they'd even come close to folding or dying. People compare them to Palm, but Palm only occupied a niche market compared to RIM.

I hope they survive because it's better to have more players in the game as we all benefit from the competition with faster development and better prices. I also hope these closed ecosystems open up to allow more cross platform communication and apps. Perhaps HTML5 may address this?

Cheers all.

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