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« Coining Term: "Elop Effect" when you combine Osborne Effect and Ratner Effect | Main | So What Value in Nokia Then? Considering Post Google-Motorola Purchase »

August 15, 2011

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Sander van der Wal

The only thing Google can do to protect Android is to kill Motorola outright. It makes the IP expensive, but it will keep Android on top.

teklemon

"whoever buys Nokia will sell off NokiaSiemens Networks."

Easier said than done.
Do you have any buyers in mind for NSN? Siemens?
Also remember they are bound to the JV till 2013.

If I was Nokia or MS, I would bid jointly for RIM or Sony Ericsson.
For obvious reasons. ;-)

LeeBase

The biggest winner today is Msft. Win 7 is the clear best alternative to hedge one's bets against Google giving too much priority to Motorola. Which, we can count on. Google is going to try to integrate like Apple, not spin Moto off as some "equal player with the rest".

No one is going to buy Nokia in order to make Meego phones. The Symbian to Meego transition was flushed down the toilet and it irretrievable. If Intel wants a handset maker, far better for them to buy HTC or ZTE....and just hire away any valuable Meego engineers from Nokia.

If forced, Microsoft will buy Nokia, but the more likely scenario is that Microsoft invests in Nokia...giving Nokia the necessary extra cash. Face it, they have already been assimilated into the Borg. Nokia is a Microsoft shop. It is not now, nor will it ever be again, the place where Symbian and Meego are going to flourish.

I have little reason to believe that Google will be the cure of what ills Motorola. Sure, they can give Moto lots of money. Sure, they can work more closely on the development of Android. But it takes time to integrate. No matter how you look at it...the most immediate result with be the SLOWING of both Android and Motorola at a time when Apple is putting the petal to the metal.

That's great news for Nokia/Microsoft.

We MAY see HP buy HTC or at least license WebOS to HTC as another reaction to the Google/Moto purchase. Sure, they were already flirting with the idea, this may well have crystallized it.

The least affected are Apple and RIM. They will do what they were already going to do, and get the results they were already likely to get.

Lee

Baron95

You have a weird definition of "death". Google is paying "gold" for Motorola. A premium of 63%. $12.5B or $40/share.

That means that Motorola is being valued 2/3 of what Nokia was valued last week. (of course Nokia is getting a bump now, as there is renewed talk of it being acquired).

So basically, Moto made the correct strategic choices, dumped Symbian early on, moved to Android, and made just the Mobility side of its business worth $12.5B.

That is outstanding performance by Jha. Not death. Plus Motorola Mobility will be run as an independent business by Google.

Titanium

I don't agree with you when you say that a resurrected independent Motorola isn't a treat to Samsung and the other android OEM because a resurrected Motorola will be in any case a stronger competitor for them in an ecosystem with limited profits. Hence this deal is good for Nokia and Microsoft because suddenly this ecosystem is getting more competitive (or less undesirable)

Anyway if there still is some chance to let Meego survive this is the right time to try, the device is there (N9 obviously) and the competitors (android) show sign of weakness

Poifan

Nice analysis, there's lots here to ponder. Don't forget that Motorola Mobility also provides TV Set Top Boxes, a nice fit for Google's struggling Google TV project. With one purchase, Google gets a hardware solution for phones, tablets, and STBs. There's a big part of your Google/Android ecosystem.

kissmyass

Did I hear Meego? Meego is death

former N900 user

I would not call it a "death" in the bloodbath. On the contrary, now together with Google, Motorola will proove to be once and again a very strong competitor for the global lead in smartphones. I think selling Motorola soon isn't the most likely strategy for Google. Instead Google will shift its inhouse hardware development (Nexus, Xoom etc.) completly to Motorola and use motos patents to defend the android ecosystem for HTC, samsung and LG.

I think your analysis of Bada is completly wrong as it is clearly an OS for more mid to lowtier smartphones. Samsung's recently announced new name scheme for smartphones suggest, that the android Galaxy S will continue to be their flagship device.

Baron95

"Did I hear Meego? Meego is death"

Nope. Meego was aborted before birth. If you are not born, you can not die. For those saying that N9 runs Meego, you are totally clueless. N9 runs Maemo with a Meego UI on top.

This announcement simply says that companies that make the right strategic decisions get rewarded. Those that don't (e.g. Nokia staying with Symbian too long, RIM staying with Blackberry OS too long, DoCoMo OEMs staying with their bastardized near-smartphone OSes) get punished.

Congratulations to Motorola Mobility and Mr. Jha for playing their cards well.

Nokia better step up it's game. Spin off or dump NSN at whatever price (like moto spun off its Network unit and dumped its Enterprise/Government unit into a separate company). Make yourself a primarily smartphone maker with a competitive OS (WP). Then let the bidding begin.

zerolinesofcode

Remember, Nokia (NSN) bought Motorola networks recently.

By the way, recently Motorola was split into two. Namely Motorola Mobility and Motorola Solutions. Google only bought Motorola Mobility. :)


twitter.com/zerolinesofcode

Anon

RIM should release an iOS player to accompany it's up-coming Android Dalvik player, and then fix-licence QNX ($5 per device), while keeping encryption algorithms, the BB Gateway, and BBM as their differentiation.

That would make for an interesting day on Wall Street.

vvaz

Samsung et al. don't have to be afraid. Much.

Please remember that Google has big problems with monetizing of anything but their search engine. I think they will have similar problems with Motorola. There is only one thing which could kill Android: preferential treatment of Motorola and withholding of Android source from OEMs. Google started to do it with Honeycomb (primarily to protect Samsung et al. from cheap competitors) and if they deepen that process it will kill Android as universal mobile OS.

peter

tomi, I made a comment not long ago on google vs nokia where I mentioned nokia phones have 3 long term advantage over google's android phones:
1. deep patent potforlio
2. built-in maps with voice dooor to door guidance
3. meego and symbian are more efficient OS than Java VM (longer battery life)

Obviously google management saw it and made a quick decision to buy MMI for deep patent portforlio. but it has not sovled #2 and #3 problem. Google might want to buy nokia but nokia is still expensive for google cash reserve.


I believe Steve Jobs is looking at buying Nokia to solve ipohnes long term problems as listed in above #1 and #2. yes, apple has much deep cash pocket to buy nokia at 70% premium in all cash.

After buying out nokia, apple will get
1. deep patent portfolio,
2. free built-in world-wide maps, postion based advertisment, turn by turn voice guidance
3. huge loyal nokia symbian and s40 users base
apple will take following actions
1. get rid of Elop,Weber,Jorma immediately
2. keep low to medium range phones with nokia brand to compete against android/mango
3. capture 40% market share in both smart and feature phones.


Vikram

Microsoft didn't give Apple a loan that kept it alive. MSFT made a temporary purchase of $150M of Apple stock and made several undisclosed payments to settle lawsuits and some anti-competitive behaviour that they got caught doing against Apple (See Canyon software and Intel)

$150M was in no way anywhere near enough to save Apple at the time and there were several other people looking to take Apple private like Larry Ellison who was going to do it with Jobs before Jobs decided not to do it.

The idea that MSFT saved Apple is a myth from the anti-Apple crowd or is sheer ignorance.

Of course, I expect Tomi to delete my post as he typically does with those who disagree with him.

LeeBase

@Peter - Google already has maps with voice integration.

Apple already has voice navigation apps as well. I use MotionX Drive but there is also TomTom, Navigon and a couple others. Apple could buy one of them (don't know why it would) much easier than buying Nokia.

What COULD happen is Nokia could license it's data services to replace Google's data services on the iPhone. It's Apple, not Google, that has developed the "Google Maps" app for iOS. It merely uses Google's maps back end.

Then again, not sure why Apple would feel the need to do so. Apple willingly takes Google's money to make Google the default search for Safari. Apple just isn't the type to do something just to spite Google.

Lee

vvaz

@LeeBase

Google doesn't have maps. Despite much hype most of stuff is still bought or licensed from third parties. In this company only Nokia has its own in-house maps.

@Vikram

MSFT saved Apple with some money and more important - promise to make MS Office for Mac OS. They did it to avoid monopoly related problems. If they stalled a bit Apple wouldn't exist but also very probably MSFT would cease to exist as single company split into several entities due to anti-monopoly regulations.

Apple will not buy Nokia as a whole - the only one part of company which would make sense for them is Navteq. They don't need patents - they can bluff their way through legal system with good lawyers and laughable UI patents - as we saw in case of Samsung tablets and they are not into heavy iron of NSN (that one can be valuable for Chinese or maybe Samsung).

LeeBase

I wonder if Msft and Apple will team up to put a bid on Motorola....say $20b -- just to force Google to pay even MORE.

Lee

peter

@LeeBase, you missed my point about built-in gps maps. while google/apple do have maps, they are online maps not built-in maps. it needs wireless data flow to download which becomes expensive every day and conusmers do not want to pay for the data downloading. and both google/apple have to pay tomtom huge money to use its telenav maps (directly or indrectly)

peter

@vvaz, apple do need nokia's deep patent portforlio to avoid paying royalties to nokia per iphone and to block/charge roylaties from its competitors.

LeeBase

@Peter - I guess what I was referring to is that Android customers get turn by turn maps as a default app. Google does not, therefore NEED NavTek.

I don't think Apple or Google have to own everything. There is room for licensing (as Apple does for voice recognition as well as maps).

Both platforms have plenty of coverage on maps to compete in the market.

Lee

peter

@LeeBase," Android customers get turn by turn maps as a default app." most of them have to download wirelessly to use first time and cached somewhere to reuse them. but the cache can not exceed certain side, lets say 10MB in order to avaoid further charge on google/apple from tomtom.
so every time you go to new location, it needs download wirelessly again and replace previous cache.

think about if you go aboard and use your big screen android phone as your gps, you'll be charged a huge wireless data fee from carrier.

In usa, all big carriers have removed unlimited data plan. put a rate like 2GB/$15/months

peter

tomi, I am thinking the exclusive partnership agreement between miscoft and nokia is illegal.
Jorma Ollila and Steven Elop have betrayed nokia investors interests. Is there any official way to get the details of the agreement as an investor ?

Yuri

Tomi, I don't think that it is in Google's and its partners best interest for Motorola to get sold eventually. If Google keeps control over Moto they will be able to steer them in a way which is beneficial both for Google and its partners.

Google's interest is to have Android as wide-spread as possible. They should simply focus Moto on producing low-end devices and at the same time leave the more lucrative high and mid segments to its partners.

Google can also use Motorola as a lab for new device concepts, which will allow them to pile up patents and prepare them to fill niches not occupied by their partners. If a niche proves popular, they will be able to offer patent indemnification to their partners (only), thus continuously promoting the platform.

Google is in the position to make a complete win of this acquisition, simply because their business model does not conflict the device manufacturers.

LeeBase

@peter - a quick search (powered by Google of course) reveals a couple (I stopped looking after that) apps already in the Android marketplace that provide turn by turn with off line, downloadable maps.

Lee

peter

@tomi,
recently another crap hired by Elop has made some media splash, Chris Weber.

he plans to stop selling all nokia current cell phones including hit smart phone n8 and super phone n9.

now he wants to flood usa with nokia WP7 mango phones at a price lower than lowest android phones.

can nokia get any net profit after paying out $15 per phone royalty fee to microsoft ?

N8 is selling at $370 unlocked which is at the average price of android phones. and it has best sellings among all nokia phones without putting in any market promotions.


This crook exec ms employee has also to be fired immediately.

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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