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July 06, 2011

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Robert

Tomi,
Been following this ongoing trainwreck since the Feb 11 Burning Platform memo. Not involved w. the mobile community, but this is compelling from standpoint of - a business case study. Surely it will be studied for decades, the seemingly wanton destruction of Nokia, and the end of M$ as a mobile platform developer.
Elop and Ballmer will both likely be replaced soon; the BoD's just can't let those clowns continue squandering shareholder value.
Sorry for Nokia, but would be sweet to see Ballmer publicly fired in total humiliation and disgrace. What a jerk. When Win7 phone is finally abandoned like the Kin and Zune, M$ should likely be out of partners willing to dance with the devil.
Really enjoy your writing - looking forward to continued coverage of this industry.

Raymond

Thanks, I learnt much. Why Nokia go with licence wp7 when Symbian development and meego development is free. Zero cost at all. Many staff actually volunteer workers. Also the pace at which Symbian and meego grows is solo fast. I mean 8 months to make a portrait qwerty is an a dilute record speed. Symbian^3 looks so modern and was so loved with its refreshed modern interface. The speedy timely updates are a joy. And e7 and x7 are totally way better than say the sgsii which is no competition. Better hardware and on the world popular Symbian. Many more things I learn but posting from mobile.

Vinícius

Raymond, you're actually right about volunteer work for MeeGo. Just see Maemo and you will see that there ARE a lot of people willing to work for free for the good of Open Source.

Also, Symbian and Nokia are still better than most competition. I'd rather have an n8 than most other phones on the market. Because of
1: Camera, no one does cameras as nokia does. Even the EDOF units are better than 99% of the market.
2: Battery Life.
3: FM TX.
4: Hardware quality. Good Mic, audio quality, signal strenght, GPS lock (Samsung SG2 has problems with it, as did SG1), pentaband gsm and much more.
5: True multi-tasking, this is crutial for me and a lot of people.

That said I own an n900 and will probably buy an n9 regardless. Open source community will do the rest, you will see those volunteer workers can do better than most companies, that's the beauty of open source.


And I can't wait till ELOP is FIRED and we can have Nokia back, launching not only the n9 as the primary phone, but the n950 along with it and many more MeeGo pocket PCs (Maemo and Meego are more akin to PC OS than smartphone OS).

@rodrigottr

I've to confess something.

Every morning I wake up and look on twitter: what kind of intelligently STUPID thing has Elop done today?

Can't wait to see why @staska would choose all letter Bs and his reasons... hahahaha

JCMont

Entertaining post Tomi!

@rodrigottr

@Tomi

On your next post you could invert what you are doing. Instead of showing how Elop is mismanaging Nokia, show how they are mismanaging Microsoft.

A good parasite doesn't suck it's victims energy to the point of death. It just sucks till the point both can live.

In the desperate eagerness of saving Microsoft from it's prison on PC's and ensuring a path for Microsoft to mobile computing they will end by killing their last chance.

Instead they should run that quietly, without anyone notice. Keeping MeeGo, keeping, Symbian. Bringing WP quietly just for experimenting and, with time, do the changing they wanted.

What is going on is simply a funny and ridiculous scandal!

Nok_fan

HATE!

@don_afrim

There is something fishy about this whole thing. The Board is ALLOWING this fool to destroy Nokia, it's as if they have no other choice. Are they at gun point? Somehow someone wants to destroy the only European tech company that's left. Somehow someone wants to destroy the only major operating system (Symbian/MeeGo) that's under European control. If you look at the OS world market share (Windows, Mac, iOS, Android, webOS, WP7, Symbian and BB), 90% is under American control and with the diminish of Symbian and BB that number will go up to 99%.

Harry in Singapore

Exactly from what you have written about what Stephen Elop have done at Nokia, I feel that he is doing a GREAT job at Nokia to enable it to survive this hard period; grow and be great again.

1. Focus on selling a single "value" that Nokia has to offer. Nokia's is more than just a Phone OS or hardware. It's the entire "experience" of owning and using a mobile device and hopefully it would be enjoyable than that closed Apple iPhone.

As a competent user of mobile phones and one of the earliest adopter of the then new Nokia Communicator, I believe very strongly that with a competent Leader, Nokia can be the Number 1 Mobile Device Company again.

2. Mr Elop's actions, to me, are that of a Strong Leader that is facing CRITICAL challenges that either kills Nokia or propel it to Greatness again. I am now using an Android; refused to buy the iPhone and I look forward to buy my first Nokia Windows Phone.

3. The previous Nokia was inert; accumulated lots of user preferences but unable to execute the ideas into products or services and simply had too many people. It was frustrating to even read about it and even worst, to experience it.

4. All the great intentions and hope that simply remained as that!! What a shame then.

5. Nokia needs to be able to execute its plans. I see Mr Elop doing this now.

6. Please don't get me wrong. I love Nokia and I want to be a Nokia customer again; and will be the first to broadcast to everyone how good the new Nokia Windows phone is, esp with Nokia's services on it.

Baudrillard

Elop has placed some of his own Muppets on the board so there's no stopping them!

Why not release the 1Ghz upcoming Symbian phones to instead run MeeGo????

Why only one MeeGo phone????

MeeGo is pure Linux and can be ported to run on anything!

This is a suicide mission by Elop on behalf of Microsoft. All or nothing and it's looking more and more like NOTHING!

Nokia can't afford to let this idiot continue destroying their brand like this!

Bjorn

@Harry in Singapor

Harry, I do agree with you that strong leadership is crutial in rough times and I do agree that the leader has to point out the right direction and have everyone follow him there. However, the leader needs to have a sence of direction otherwise it can all end in disaster. Based on what Tomi writes and what my gut tells me I must say that Mr Elop right now reminds me of the head lemming heading for the ocean =/

Tee

I've been lucky to be able to spend a little bit of time with both a very fresh development version of Symbian and the new N9, and whatever trust I had for Elop's strategic decisions regarding Nokia vanished.

You see, Symbian Anna and Symbian Belle are both a definite improvement. And the N9 seems to be everything Nokia ever needed to take back its share of the market. And Nokia even has a clear strategy for developers being able to produce apps for both platforms at once. But even while Nokia has gotten its stuff back together, Elop has been working in the shadows for half a year perfecting a strategy that now seems just plain foolish. He's placing the corporation's future on something that the carriers and device makers hate, developers and users distrust and Microsoft has problems making usable.

Mister Elop: WP7 is not even a burning platform; it's an unfinished platform, and you're renting it before it's even ready, placing your company's future in the hands of another company. It is clear to everyone now that you didn't come to lead Nokia with Nokia's best interest in mind - you came in with a Microsoft bias, and that bias will cost you and all Nokia employees their future. You of course will get a nice bonus for it; the rest will just have to suffer through it all.

RR

Wow, just wow. This blog went from pure scientificly based to just rant after rant after rant. There is no real information in this post, just like the one with the songtext a few days ago.

Seriously, Tomi was one reputed source a while ago with near spot on analysis. But the hate that's seeping from every corner of this blog lately made it horrendous to read here.

BTW; Elop hasn't done all the right things in his strategy. But the all out blaming and finger pointing is just weak.

Michael


You are missing one very important point. The whole mess Nokia is in was brought by OPK along with his board. Let's be honest. The board of Nokia is incapable of making any decision. The team which stayed with OPK should have resigned. You can only argue if they are incapable or lazy. Why don't write an article about OPK's board and their role in Nokia's dall in the years of 2007-2011.

History has shown us that when companies reach stage which Nokia reached last year you need someone who is capable of making critical and important decisions. Mr. Elop will either live by the sword or die by it. At least someone had guts to speak his opinion.

All those executives at Nokia at critical positions rally have no clue. As Nokia's world was crumbling last year Mr. Niklos Savander was telling the crowd at Nokia World fairy tales about Symbian being no: 1. Anssi Vanjoki was convincing everybody how "BIG" E9 is. On top of that you have Markko Ahtisaari having whole philosophical discussion about "to be, or not to be - the home button enigma".

The whole Nokia's Symbian position is wrong. Simply, the customers don't want it. It's old technology. The same way customers ditched casette tapes, commodere 64, atari or CRT's they are now ditching Symbian. We are not talking Beta which was technologically more advance but marketing/business/licences buried it.

Look how hard it is for Google to set up competition to Facebook. With all the money and resources they are finding it almost impossible. Simply "the train has left the station", same way as N9 has left the station. No matter how wonderful it is (despite the fact it might need some time to have it finished and polished) it would be extremely difficult for Nokia to have it up there competing with iOS and Android. Microsoft, which is a software company, is having trouble gaining market share with WP7, and you expect Symbian to grow with few new icons?

Rino

Tomi... Clap Clap Clap, for you, very, very funny and simple method to find an incompetent CEO, I enjoy your post, - Nokia Members Bord, they know this quiz!. :-(

Matthew Artero

A replacement rate of 18 months means that 66% of phones in use are being replaced every year. The 1.38 billion phones sold last year is only 32% of the 4.3 billion phones in use.

Leebase

Wow, Tomi. Wasn't it YOU that completely ripped Nokia's N8? And now it's the phone that would have been Nokia's savior?

And all this talk of the N9 is nothing more than the same HYPE that every Nokia flagship phone garners BEFORE it's actually released. We have no idea how buggy or screwed up this phone is going to be. And besides, that train has already left. According to reports, the Symbian and Meego team leads were the one's who had the "oh shit" moment and decided they simply weren't on track to be competitive. You've never provided any dispute to that story.

And speaking of providing facts -- you've yet to produce any real evidence that there is a Skype based boycott going on.

There was an excellent strategy using QT to move Symbian to Meego. It sounds good on paper. They simply didn't execute on it quickly enough.

If your thinking had been correct, there never would have been a reason to change the CEO in the first place. You now gladly tout the 50% drop in Nokia's market cap. You threatened to gag me for pointing out the 75% drop in market cap Nokia had experienced since the launch of the iPhone.

The emergency that led to the firing of Nokia's CEO was there in plain sight but you insisted on keeping blinders on -- insisting that market share plus minimal profits was all the metric needed for success. You threatened to gag anyone who kept pointing out the long term and drastic decline in profits Nokia was experiencing that had led to the amazing 75% loss of market cap.

But NOW you think it's time for the market cap to be relevant -- as if Nokia's troubles started on Feb. 11.

Lee

RR

@Leebase

Skype is no reason to boycot anything. If it were to be than MS would simply cut out Skype functionality over 3G for example. Just like they cut out tethering at the mercy of the telco's.

Tomi's implications of it being a major problem are baseless so far. MS won't be so stupid that they will sacrifice carrier love over something like Skype integration of which at this point is even no sign in Windows Phone.

MyNokiaN900

Bear in mind the board of Nokia hired Elop. If Elop is making bad decisions, then the board is making them too. Yes, he is the CEO, but he has to answer to the board or the shareholders as well. One man cannot be responsible for the failure of the company. Impossible! Perhaps the previous CEO screwed the company up and now it takes someone like Elop to step in and make some tough decisions. Still I don't believe it's just him making these decisions. It's a collection of people making bad decisions or good decisions. In the short term they must have a plan, as someone pointed out, how could the let a company that once dominated the world of mobile, just crash and burn. There must be a plan.

I am not a lover of Windows or Windows phones, but I cannot believe all the smart people at Nokia could let a wonderful company go down the tube.

Kalle

As an independent developer of mobile phone apps I find Nokias actions intolerable. While Apple has a steady platform and so does Google, nobody knows what Nokias platform will be. If it is Microsoft, will I bet my time and fortunes upon speculation whether MS/Nokia phones will float or sink? I've used Microsoft development tools and they are better than what Symbian tools and Nokia made a huge mistake not fixing them and the SDK stable and fun to code on. Still, even if Ms/Nokia floats, what will I do meanwhile? I'm not going to start developing software for platform that doesn't have customers. I have to get paid. My options are Apple, Google or Symbian at the moment. What is common with these platforms? Of course that they are already established ecosystem. When I put a free app onto Ovi store I got 20000 downloads in a month from 131 countries (unfortunately paid content isn't as popular). Is there anything like that possible in current Microsoft ecosystem? I don't think so.

Jukka

I believe that MS and Nokia aim for Windows 8 and 2012. Mango is just for filling in a gap.

Ed

Tomi,

Whatever credibility you may have had as an analyst went right down the tubes with this rant. Completely devoid of any facts and in many cases a complete contradiction of your own comments in the past. The N8 a hugely successful device? Symbian^3 making a comeback?? Cmon Tomi. We know you are a passionate former employee, but credible analysis requires more than flailing insults and spewing your 'muppet' venom. it's a bit sad to watch a former intelligent shaper of opinions become another ranter with a twitter stream. You're better than this.

svensson

As much as I enjoy Tomi going nuts over Elop's (mis)manegement;), to me the reality of Nokia is much troublesome. As an N8 owner it's not very nice to read about this negative down-going spiral Nokia board has put the company in. What exactly was so wrong with Symbian^3, Qt and Maemo/Meego investments?
Of course some US blogger would send it all straight to hell but from a nerdy European standpoint the whole package with world maps and class-leading cameras it was totally OK.

EM

First things first. Symbian is not a reasonable smartphone operating system. It's a fantastic cheap touchscreen thingamabob, but it's best compared to Bada which is another successful piece of junk. So yeah. Shifting Symbian to caretaker mode and firing the vast amount of deadweight at Nokia is perfectly reasonable. Once again, Nokia was spending FIVE TIMES more on R&D than Apple. (Apple, if you don't know, is one of the world's largest, richest, most successful companies and controls the vast amount of money made in mobile. And no, marketshare doesn't matter.)

That said, MeeGo is running way late and way behind. Elop is still an idiot for not using MeeGo both as a once-a-year superphone combined with replacing Symbian and WP7 in, say, three years. But MeeGo was neither ready nor done. Maemo 6 and Harmatten 1.2 (UI layer written in 9 months) was ready. Still not MeeGo. Who knows how tough moving Maemo6/Harmatten 1.2 apps to MeeGo is? Who knows how tough it is to write a brand new UI for every single different company's version of MeeGo (since every company gets a different UI, like Android skins on steriods)?

And, of course, there is a very long history of open source developers not understanding design, UI, and UX. I really want to see a bunch of open source apps with Linux level UIs on my "MeeGo" phone.


Translation of comments into reality:

@Robert
"Elop and Ballmer will both likely be replaced soon; the BoD's just can't let those clowns continue squandering shareholder value."

I pay no attention to public statements of Nokia & Microsoft's Boards of DIrectors. I also don't understand how corporations work.

@Raymond
"Symbian^3 looks so modern and was so loved with its refreshed modern interface. The speedy timely updates are a joy. And e7 and x7 are totally way better than say the sgsii which is no competition. "

I am high as a kite.

@ don_afrim
"There is something fishy about this whole thing. The Board is ALLOWING this fool to destroy Nokia, it's as if they have no other choice. Are they at gun point? Somehow someone wants to destroy the only European tech company that's left. Somehow someone wants to destroy the only major operating system (Symbian/MeeGo) that's under European control. "

I believe in crazy conspiracy theories. For example if I wrote the above I probably believe the following: Obama wasn't born in America and supply-side economics work. And the Trilateral Commission is running the world. And JFK was killed by a gunman on the grassy knoll.

Mikko

I have also some question to see who's the most capable to run Nokia. Questions are:

Question 1: You've a homegrown OS which maintaining takes thousands of people and it's complicated to keep it update. Users think it's not looking modern enough and it's brand is weak. Your profits are shrinking due to growing competition from Android camp and you must do something to keep your compaby alive. Will you
a) let's keep Symbian and hire more people to keep it updated. You're being assured that next version of Symbian will come after couple of months, maybe. The sales will surely come if we wait little...
b) Symbian was a efficient product in terms of CPU time but it's meant for mobile phones, not mobile computers. It's cheaper now to get OS outside than try to develop one from the scratch.

Question 2: It's February 2011. Nokia X7 is still a unfinished product without portrait QWERTY and it looks oldfashioned against it peers. It's your important comeback device to the North American markets. Would you
a) release it and hope for the best even the operators shun it
b) cancel it and wait until you get Microsoft to support your ad campaign and get a better deal from operators to have a proper D-Day to US.

Question 3: Facebook got Skype calls. You're thinking what the operators will do.
a) You guess operators don't like Skype and you INSTANTLY cancel all the mobile phone ad support for Facebook and withdraw all your Facebook accounts. Sign for Google+, they don't have such free phone systems, don't they...
b) You understand Facebook is one of the services your clients expect modern mobile phone to support. Operators also understand that Facebook is too strong power to resist. Keep calm and see what happens.

Yeah, why questions are just as biased as Tomi's. I'm suspecting somebody (Anssi Vanjoki?) has kidnapped Tomi and is now using his blog credentials. Well, maybe our messiah Vanjoki will come and save the Nokia from evil American people...haha.

Tomi, as a Finn I can't but wonder why you don't throw any mud on Nokia's board? There's one man, once so wise and mighty Jorma Ollila, who should be responsible for Nokia's last years of decline. He has said in the interview that European software skills aren't capable enough to keep on with pace of Americans. I can't argue with that. But Tomi, why aren't you quoting this in any of your posts. You're just praising the Finns who don't never make mistakes...

BTW, there's especially one thing I don't understand in Nokia. They've said that N9 is their last Meego phone (well, can be argued that they haven't released any "pure" Meego phone) but why they keep on praising N9 user experiences in their web site, Twitter etc. if they are not going to sell it only but a selected countries? It's a question that should be answered by Nokia - are they still flirting with Maemo OS or what's happening? My logic says if they'd we totally shutting down Maemo/Meego operations in near future thay wouldn't be praising too much a "dead horse" - especially if that horse isn't still available in any store...

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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