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« The Two Existential Threats to Nokia: Why Nokia on Endangered Species List and will not survive 12 months | Main | Congratulations Apple you are indeed now biggest smartphone maker: and Top 6 smartphone ranking Q2 »

July 29, 2011

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Peter


Update on Qt Quick 3D for Qt 4.x Jul 27, 2011

Peter

@Tomi, looks like I can not agree with your unthinkable.
It will completely destroy Nokia image. Peoples hate flip-flop.
Nokia has already withdraw from Intel alliance, Nokia can not afford another withdraw from MS alliance.

Here is my plan for Nokia:
1. Fire Elop with granting any compensation, keep the rights to sue Elop for his criminal actions; recruit talents from those who resigned and who have been wrongly fired by Elop;
2. Keep Meego and Symbian as main platforms and improve them on both hardware and software fronts,
a. upgrade high-end models with highest speed 2.0 GH duo-core cpu-gpu, 1024x640 4.3 display screen, 2GB ram, 64 GB Flash memory, 2000mah battery; (meego)
b. upgrade middle-end models with 1.2 duo-core cpu-gpu, 840x584 4.0 1GB ram, 32 GB Flash memory, 1600 mah; (meego)
c. upgrade etry level models with 1.0GH single-core cpu-gpu, 640x360 3.5 512MB ram, 16GB GB Flash memory, 1200 mah; (symbian)
3. Keep MS WP7.5/8 as middle-end line which shares same hardware platform as Meego middle-end device;(Qt as porting tools)
4. Open the option with android;
5. add voice cdma support;
6. setup strong relationships with att,tmobile,verizon,sprint,uscellar,cricket for usa market;

A well managed R&D team doesn't need more than 10,000 engineers. A lot of works can share the same code base (core-os, device driver, apps, globalization, etc), cpu-gpu-dsp motherboard, case etc;

fonts have to be open for free download or even auto-downlaod when users navigate to different language web pages; treat users friendly will bring more users, it is free mouth-ads.

7. bring skype, flash 10.3, silverlight 5, html5 compatible browser to ovi store;
8. bring zillow, redfin, etrade, mobile online payment into ovi store;
9. enhance ovi maps for globalization support, by default show localized maps giving users option to show translated version;
10. integrate ovi music/video/podcast/radio into ovi store;
11. bring all famous games into ovi store;
12. software tutoring, developing tools/utilities into ovi store;
13. online dictionaries, scientific calculator, office suite;
14. open android apps support;

Feel to work on my plan for the re-rise of Nokia

Peter

15. design and product Meego Tablet with phone built-in

Eurofan

We don't know what was in the agreement with Microsoft. All we know is that if Elop limits the sale of the N9 in markets where it could be successful he is sabotaging profitable sales and also future profitable sales at a time of transition when the company needs as many profitable sales as it can get. If the windows phones don't take off as planned, Nokia will want those profitable N9 sales and it will want the intellectual capital contained in the N9 for future products. Who authorized the X7? Who autorized the Vertu brand of lux symbian phones? Who signed off on the N97 initial release, from what I read one of the buggiest craptastic-iest phones Nokia has produced? Nokia needs to slowly back out of the windows phone agreement as that Nokia branded line fails in the market place and Nokia needs to preserve and develop the intellectual capital behind the N9 so a successor can be introduced in a year if the N9 does turn out to be a market success. In the mean time the company needs to screw its head on tight and stop wasting resources on such ridiculous designs as the X7 and Vertu. Each model released should be ready for release and should be designed to make a profit. Two key principles. Quality and profitability.

Leebase

What would happen? It would be worse than the course they are on. Sales people would not start pushing Symbian phones. Meego would still be nothing more than WebOS and less than WP7. There'd still be nothing compelling compared to Android or iPhone. Anyone who thinks Meego isn't going to be buggy and immature is day dreaming.

Nokia could not endure the years of losses that are ahead of it without Microsoft's money. Nokia would not magically fix it's software execution problems. Aftervthe drama with Elop, it would take more than a year just to work through the people issues.

The Symbian/Meego plan wasn't executed well enough, fast enough and now it's been torn to pieces. You cant put Humpty Dumpty back together again. If you love Nokia, pray that Microsoft is their savior.

Lee

Peter

@Eurofan, as to the agreement with Microsoft, there is a tricky with it. Initial, Elop revealed WP7 as primary smart phone OS, then suddenly it became the single smart phone OS.

Primary vs single OS is life and death difference for Nokia.


Nokia has to restate the agreement :
1. degrade exclusive agreement with MS down to regular partnership;
2. use WP7/8 as one of nokia smart phone OSes;
3. nokia do not want any exclusive partnership with MS, just regular one is enough. MS has to pay to use nokia service such as navteq, ovi maps, ovi billings, nokia patent suites. Nokia do not need any kinds of MS money except it is for the marketing of WP7/8. nokia gives up any changes over MS WP7/8 except the normal customization.

Flavio Noschese

Tomy,

I've found your site near February, when I was trying to understand what was happening to Nokia.
I've reading you every day from that time. Today I would like to congratulate you!
It's very difficult to find someone who talks a lot and make sense every day during six months.
Well, we really don't know what will you happen, but if Microsoft guys read you (they do it for sure), I think Steve Ballmer will not try anymore to buy Nokia (too risky) - What a shame and what a mess!
Anyway, it's worse, when we remember that the board of Nokia reads you (for sure) every day.
When I think in it, I'm not so positive. I think that is easier Nokia goes back, than the board.
That would be a very harsh and strong decision and I don't think that the Nokia's board has anymore health and strength to do it.
I hope that I'm wrong, as I know that you are completely right.
Congratulations again !!!

Peter

@Leebase, small buggy is not a problem at all for a hot hit product as Meego N9. Consumers tolerate small bugs easily as long as it is cool and it can bring bragging advantage over their peers who carry android or iphone4.

look at the major antenna issue and easily to shatter case of iphone4, Consumers just skip them since it has retina screen resolution. buggy is okay.

Meego N9 will be okay as long as new Nokia ceo won't bad-mouth it again. Ne wNokia ceo has to show super confidence in nokia products in public.

If you look at MS DOS, Windows 3.1, Windows 95/98, all are buggies OS that needs to reboot routinely but consumers tolerate them because it is cheap than Mac OS. that's selling points at that time.

Meego N9 selling point is beauty outside, strong function inside. minor bugs here and there is okay.

Peter

@Tomi,
"Elop has clearly miscalculated, he admits as much in saying the effects have been far more severe than he had expected."

Actually Elop said during Q2 ER the Q2 huge loss was the manifested result of previous management and Symbian OS. He never admitted it was his own criminal actions that caused huge loss: "Symbian is dead", "Meego N9 is a internal project", "Even Meego N9 is a hit, nokia won't deliver any other meego device".

again, Finnish government has to investigate into Elop and his clan. it is not pure business. far more beyond that.

Peter

@tomi, as nokia shareholder, I like it:
going symbian and meego:
2011 . . . 17.4% . . . . 84M . . . $185 . . . $15.4B . . . 1.0% . . . . $ 195
2012 . . . 19.6% . . . 131M . . . $194 . . . $19.5B . . . 6.2% . . . . $2,042
2013 . . . 20.5% . . . 186M . . . $207 . . . $38.3B . . . 8.9% . . . . $4,427

Eurofan

@Peter, Sounds good. I'm concerned, too, about what's in the agreement and what can be salvaged from the N9 effort going forward. I appreciate that Leebase may be right. But universal critical acclaim for a product like Nokia has had with the N9 doesn't come except every once in a while in a company's history. Nokia needs to preserve the possibility of profiting from the N9 in the near term and of capitalizing on the N9 effort in the future if the windows phone doesn't succeed.

I'm actually fine with the idea of splitting the launch countries between the N9 and the windows phone. In the present circumstances, that's actually a good idea. Let the windows phone flounder for ten months and let the N9 sell well, each in its own test markets, the windows phone in America and Britain and continental Europe and the N9 in scandinavia and australia, or whatever. Americans, Brits and Germans who want the N9 can import it from the far reaches of the web. A little frustration can be a good thing for marketing purposes. The Chinese had to wait in frustration for the iPhone for three years and now apparently they can't get enough of them. In the mean time the iPhone got better. If the N9 is as good as it seems it can be an elite subculture phone in the countries where the windows phone bombs.

I do think the windows phone is going to bomb. Microsoft has very poor brand image. I don't think that is appreciated enough. The windows phone could make expresso coffee at the press of a button and it still wouldn't sell. People hate Microsoft. In American colleges, for example, most students have a Mac laptop from what I read. I'm sure they'd be just as happy with a Linux laptop if it was as easy to use. Apple has kind of a rich-spoiled-frivolous-person vibe which Microsoft has tried to exploit in advertising. But Microsoft has a kind of crappy-junk-unwanted-popup vibe which is much worse. Let Microsoft help Nokia advertise Nokia's windows phones, as you say. But don't let Microsoft strangle the Linux kernel based OS efforts of Nokia at the top end.

The smoothly functioning Linux kernel phone idea has such a strong draw on technical types and early adopter types it could really take off around the world as an alternative to the Apple yuppie phone and the Google phone. As long as Nokia makes enough N9's to meet demand and supports the phone well, a ground swell of support for the OS could develop internationally. A year from now, Nokia could release the N9's successor in all markets and apologize to Microsoft that they have to do so for business reasons.

Elop really is an idiot and the "leadership team" he has put together is probably 90% to 100% of the guilty parties who have brought Nokia to the weakened position it is now in after five years of wandering in the matrix management desert.

I could be wrong about the N9 and harmatten; I'll grant Leebase that, I could be wrong. But I suspect that the best and the brightest at Nokia were working on the N9 team, just as Steve Jobs assembled the best and the brightest at NEXT while he was in exile from Apple. When he came back to Apple he brought the NEXT team with him and cleaned house and transitioned the OS. Apple has never looked back from that total management and OS shake up when Steve Jobs came back to Apple and replaced the Apple managers with NEXT managers. Nokia should wall off the N9 team and prepare for the time ten months from now when Nokia's Board will want to give Elop and his "leadership team" their redundancy notices. The N9 team can take their place at the top of Nokia and, sure, why not bring out two windows phones a year for the rest of eternity for the sake of some agreement, but in the mean time return Nokia to being a company based on the production of quality products which make profits. Long rant!

Long rant, and I've got to say one thing more. It was fascinating for me to read that the meemo/meego vs. symbian split in development teams took on a sort of religious war aspect in recent Nokia history. Well lets make an analogy to Russian history, circa 1910. Ollila is the Czar, the richest industrialist in Finland, Chairman of Royal Dutch Shell, for god sakes. Everyone in Finland bows and scrapes before him, a rich man in a land of equality. OPK was the last loyal first minister of state, but as the "War" went against Russia/Nokia, OPK stepped down to give the opposition "Liberal/bourgeois" Party leader Elop a try at preserving the State in the face of internal and external existential challenges. In the guise of a total strategic and operational review team, Accenture (the Communist Party of Switzerland) enters Nokia/Finland on Elop's invitation during his first six months in power. Accenture's recommendation: give up the Symbian R&D effort (the land war in Europe), align with Microsoft and join their ecosystem. By the way, these are the people we like who you should elevate to a "leadership team." Unfortunately, Elop on Accenture/The Communist Party of Switzerland's recommendation, gathers from the top ranks of Nokia/the State the most self-serving and spineless bureaucrats and elevates them to his "leadership team". [Soon Enter Lenin?] And here's a "memo" you can leak to the world about a burning platform. We'll spin everything in the American business press so you look like a hero slaying a bloated and inefficient engineering bureaucracy -- says Accenture.

Still, I have to admit, in my mind and my story I suspect Elop in the back of his mind sees that he might have been sold a faulty bill of goods. He did allow the N9 team to continue to work after he cancelled earlier plans for launch. The delay may be why the N9 has "swipe" and the polish it does have now. Elop did tell his research team that he was taking off them the pressure to save Nokia with new products in the near term; they can concentrate on coming up with the next great disruption. Elop has isolated the next widows phones to contract production in Taiwan; production can presumably be ramped down if the windows phone product flops in the market place. State Minister Elop may be preserving his option to return the NEXT/N9/Loyalists to power in ten months if the Accenture plan doesn't work....Just a reminder, Finland, Communism sucked for Russia. Remember when your national hero Mannerheim defeated the Communists in Finland? A horrible bloody civil war in both cases. But I think Finland should be thankful that they had Mannerheim when they did and only met Lenin on his way through Finland Station.

Christian

As crazy as it is: I found that the expression "an old nokia" is now a synonym for a dumbphone. So Nokia needs a sign for new nokia. Wp7 could have been so, but maybe Meego would be even stronger - as the new swipe ui is available only with nokia. Though i am not sure if meego holds up to its expectations in real life. eg there are no phone buttons. the n900 looked great at first but in the end the lack of home and phone buttons mmade usage horrible. try to start aphone call one handed? no chance without phone buttons.

@rodrigottr

@Tomi @EM

Tomi. Perhaps the word boycott could be substituted to disinterest. I believe no evidence is needed to believe on the points showed by Tomi on this post, EM. Is reasonable that a carrier would stop reselling an obsolete product. It's due to providing a good service to the client the consulting service during the sale. Reselling obsolete products is not accepted to any salesman. That would affect the brand of any carrier. No data is needed to agree with that. However, the impact of 11 February is the same. No mater if carriers boycotted Nokia because they don't like Microsoft or if they canceled Nokia sales because they don't want to sell obsolete products in a respectful behavior with the client. The fact is that there was a huge crash on Nokia sales and is related with abandoning Symbian (with no transition path)

elmo

@ Peter

You have a sharp vision.
The problem of Nokia is not Elop.
The problem of Nokia are the people that put Elop on power in Nokia.
These people are clearly happy with Elop, else will have kick him out long time ago.
There is only ONE WAY, for change the Nokia disaster failure that is coming.
All hare holders, that are against Elop suicide strategy, need to join forces, and go to the next share holder meeting, and insert in the board somebody for stop Elop.
This is going harder and harder, since American Funds that put Elop on power, did recently increase their position in Nokia.
So ... most probably the only way is to file a CLASS ACTION.
Anyhow ... the share holders that are losing big money due to Elop, should join forces ... else ... we will be only the witness and the defrauded people in this dirty game.
On top. Finland is going to losing lot of richness ... lot of new unemployed. Nokia does not produce only money for employs and tax office ... but there are tons of people outside Nokia that live and make money connected to the Nokia business ... so Finland ... is going to be the biggest looser.
The Finnish government is incredible silent and sleepy on this ... a shame that they do nothing for protect their #1 company, their #1 brand in the world.

Tchuss

e_lm_70

@rodrigottr

@elmo

I Totally agree with you. Someone said me that those who put Elop inside Nokia owe 20X more stocks in Microsoft than in Nokia. So, if they cause a loss of 50% of value in nokia on the last 5 months, if Microsoft raises 2,5% they made money.

That explains the silence of the board. But I agree with you that doesn't explains the silence of EU, Finland's government, and even Wall Street. These guys need to react or are going make history as the most stupid stockholders ever.

Sander van der Wal

The new plan rests entirely on the assumptions that MeeGo is so good it will be able to make people reconsider buying an iPhone or an Android smartphone. This is very hard to believe, given that MeeGo was killed because it was not good enough and it did not have a big enough ecosystem.

This was not only because of Elop said so. There was another guy brought in as CTO, Rick Green, who was with Sun as executive vice president, software division. I expect what would have happened is this.

Elop: People, we have to decide. We go with Microsoft, or we stay with MeeGo. Rick, is MeeGo good enough now?

Green: No, and it will take too long to fix it.

Elop: Then we have no choice but to go with Microsoft.

PERUS

@Sander van der Wal: Rich Green wants the Android's Google deal, he left from Nokia because at the end, Nokia choose Microsoft.

Anyway, Rich Green's position within Nokia is just let's say a transit phase to his retirement. He achieved nothing special during his time in Nokia.

Jonay

@Sander van der Wal:

I think the conversation you depict took place, but more likely, with this script.

Elop: People, we have to decide. We go with Microsoft, or we stay with Meego. Rick, is MeeGo good enough now?

Green: Yes, it has been ready for the last three months, and keeping in mind its open-sourceness, it will take little time to improve.

Elop: Then I will ask another top-responsible of MeeGo to resign, once again, until Nokia's MeeGo team is so crippled that it won't work. So we'll go with Microsoft.

Sander van der Wal

@Jonay

Yeah, right. Look at http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/03/10/nokia_ui_saga/, the Mark Wilcox bit, page 2 in particular, for what happens when to Open Source when it is not properly managed.

And what about the BusinessWeek article at http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/11_24/b4232056703101_page_5.htm and further. Money quotes from that article, top page 6:
[QUOTE]
Before the first interview, Elop drew out what he knew about the plans for MeeGo on a whiteboard, with a different color marker for the products being developed, their target date for introduction, and the current levels of bugs in each product. Soon the whiteboard was filled with color, and the news was not good: At its current pace, Nokia was on track to introduce only three MeeGo-driven models before 2014—far too slow to keep the company in the game. [/QUOTE]

If people want to check, the bugs database Elop used is available at http://bugs.meego.com, so you can draw your own lines and verify his conclusions.

Concluding, [QUOTE]
Months later, Oistämö still struggles to hold back tears. "MeeGo had been the collective hope of the company," he says, "and we'd come to the conclusion that the emperor had no clothes. It's not a nice thing."

Without an internal platform to stand on, Elop would need to choose between Android and Microsoft.[/QUOTE]

dannny_bhoy

@sander

Nokia was on track to introduce only three MeeGo-driven models before 2014,

How many doe you want, that would mean about say 1 per year more than enough for transition from symbian to meego...

A linux dev

Tomi,

Have you considered the viability of returning to Meego? I'm talking about the mass exodus of Meego devs. As you know, they are Linux people, and so many would be very wary of returning to Nokia after the Microsoft affair.

Then you have to consider, that even if many were willing, they already have new jobs; at Intel and elsewhere. They would not return, even for a modest pay increase.


This leaves the option of hiring new people. But from what pool? Linux devs in general know all of this, they have followed Meego and Maemo before it. Many would not be willing to come work for Nokia. There's bad blood from the Maemo camp too, which would otherwise be the most likely candidate to return to Nokia.

Non-linux people are an option of course. But there'd be training costs, and quality & performance would likely be lower for a while.

As such, even if Nokia did reverse gears, they would not have the resources for serious Meego development for at least a year. It would take at least that for them to regain the community, and thus the viable worker pool.


I have to point out that N9 (and N950) is not a Meego phone, it runs a hybrid with a Maemo base and Meego UI. Likely a result of the loss of brains too.

Baron95

You forgot the part where Nokia has to pay Microsoft liquidation damages for breaking their definitive agreement. Given the 1B+ money Microsoft already paid Nokia and all the Nokia-negotiated modifications Microsoft would be making for Nokia, a US court (remember this contract is under US law), would probably award Microsoft in the order of $5B-$10B.

That alone is 25% to 50% of Nokia's entire market cap and exceeds their cash reserves and is probably enough to force it into liquidation.

So, yes, Tomi, your recipe would surely assure the end of Nokia :)

Bob Shaw


Each OS has some unique advantages and those unique advantages will appeal to a subset of the potential smart phone customers. All big players with long term plans in smart phones space e.g. Nokia, Samsung, HTC etc. will have to learn to juggle multiple OSes such that it can leverage unique advantages of each OS.

The approach taken by Apple of one OS with once a year update is a high risk approach. Apple may have succeeded very well so far but it is high risk going forward. The consumer world is very fickle and there is no stickiness. Once the halo effect goes away and the shine wears off, which is already beginning to happen for Apple in North America and Europe, there is no bottom to say how low it will fall. It is never advisable to put all eggs in one basket.

It is hard to believe that it is a zero sum game for Nokia such that adoption of WP7 is equal to demise of Nokia's in house OS i.e. Symbian and Meego.

Nokia should continue with its WP7 plans but at the same time look for opportunities above (with Meego) and below (with Symbian) in the smart phone space. Also there are potential opportunities side ways with other form factors like tablet etc.

peter

@Bob Shaw, refer to my plan for nokia in above posts, your advice is included already.

peter

@Baron95, there is exception.

If Finnish authorities arrested Elop and his gang for the severe economical crime invloved, then the exclusive agreement with microsoft can declared as void and null.

Microsoft has to ask compensation from Steven Elop for its damage but not Nokia.

Nokia can win in any court: Finland, EU, US. No Problem.

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