My Photo

Ordering Information

Tomi on Twitter is @tomiahonen

  • Follow Tomi on Twitter as @tomiahonen
    Follow Tomi's Twitterfloods on all matters mobile, tech and media. Tomi has over 8,000 followers and was rated by Forbes as the most influential writer on mobile related topics

Book Tomi T Ahonen to Speak at Your Event

  • Contact Tomi T Ahonen for Speaking and Consulting Events
    Please write email to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com and indicate "Speaking Event" or "Consulting Work" or "Expert Witness" or whatever type of work you would like to offer. Tomi works regularly on all continents

Tomi on Video including his TED Talk

  • Tomi on Video including his TED Talk
    See Tomi on video from several recent keynote presentations and interviews, including his TED Talk in Hong Kong about Augmented Reality as the 8th Mass Media

Subscribe


Blog powered by Typepad

« Nokia Q2 Results 2011: 15 Years after Inventing the Smartphone, Finally The King Is Toppled: By Who? Apple's iPhone of course | Main | First Look into Microsoft Nokia Smartphones in 2012 and 2013. Expect climb-back to barely 8% markets share by Q4 of... 2013 - best case scenario »

July 21, 2011

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00e0097e337c8833015433e5dc27970c

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference Mid-year Update to Nokia Smartphone Forecast to 2011, with View to 2012 and new Microsoft based phones:

Comments

live cricket streaming

Microsoft was lumbering as well as Microsoft Windows Mobile, until their nemesis, Apple, entered into the device space. And before you decide to could say 'Palm' Microsoft's business is at freefall.. So Microsoft said they'd abandon the Windows Mobile platform, because that's now 10 years old, and to produce completely new operating system truly for smartphones, Windows Phone, which might be completely new, and be optimized for touch-screen phones. Now, since this was 'totally new' it resulted in there were no migration path for developers who had made apps for Windows Mobile.

If you ask me at that time, that seemed truly odd. Microsoft if anyone, needs to have known better. It turned out DOS that built Microsoft. Then came Apple while using the Mac (like now while using the iPhone) and showed a more practical service notebooks than DOS. So Microsoft had to reverse-engineer the Mac OS and continue to make a clone, which we now know as Windows. And from now on DOS is dead. But Microsoft were built with a massive global PC lead in DOS based machines in 1984 once the Mac was announced. Whilst Macintosh PCs were sold, Microsoft based PCs sold more. And Micrsosoft made Windows first just as one add-on over DOS, being a 'GUI' (Graphical User Interface). The very first versions of Windows were horrible, it wasn't until Windows 3.0 that it was at in any manner usable, even so the point was, that all Windows PC's were also using DOS, and any recent DOS machine could be upgraded to own Windows

elmo

Is possible that Elop is so incredible incompetent ???

Elop is a CRIMINAL ... he should go to jail !

Why Finland is doing nothing for protect what was their 20% of GDP ????

jjh

Come on, Nokia's share of Finland's GDP was never 20%. More like 3-4% and that was years ago.

Yuri

This has to be the most Exceptionally Enormous Flop in the history of the tech industry - The Eflop.

I just don't get it. Even if Mr. Eflop is working in the interest of Microsoft, why is MS agreeing and sponsoring his actions? This is very bad for them too. The way things are going, not only are they not going to gain any boost for Win Phone's share from the dying Nokia, but Microsoft is going to take a heavy PR hit. It will be remembered that an ex Microsoft manager adopted a Microsoft OS and killed Nokia in about a year...

If Nokia did not discontinue MeeGo, Symbian would not have been viewed as a dead-end ecosystem and sales would not have efloped. Nokia would be much stronger and would be able to push WP much better. They could always target the MeeGo devices to the lower end and keep the WP devices in the high end.
In case of failure, Microsoft would not be seen as the problem and not take a PR hit.

And in my personal opinion, there is no chance Win Phone will sell well - its design is suitable for advertisements, not a personal device - its just too cold.

cycnus

When this all over.... elop got kicked, sued, beaten by angry bird/mob, i mean angry nokian.

I think that Rumpelstiltskin, I mean Elop would end up just like Rumpelstiltskin in shrek 4 Forever After.... eating from dumpster.

Nokia shareholder must sue elop until his last penny.!!!!!!

cycnus

Hi Tomi,

Actually Osborne effect and elop effect were different.

Adam Osborne was pre-announcing a replacement product that were better ahead of time.

elop was pre-announcing a replacement product that the current owner of nokia devices would not want it. and also announcing that all the current good product would be dead. So, basically elop was giving a replacement product that were worse than current product to replace current product that were in high demand.

Alan

Hi Tomi, do you have any updated numbers of Samsung for Q2. Very much interested to know if they crossed Nokia or not. Definitely Apple's 20M is out of reach. So is it Apple-Samsung-Nokia or Apple-Nokia-Samsung ? Let us know your latest projection given Nokia's numbers.

Michael

With such profound love for Mr. Elop, may I suggest the ultimate solution.

http://hitman.us/main.html

Alexey Zimarev

Some pieces of truth but in general this is too emotional. Yes, they should have go slowly descending Symbian and transit to MeeGo as they have planned. Seems that people are more than happy with N9. If Nokia had balls to make their own (patented) tablet on this platform it will sell very well, much better than RIM's device. WP7 wasn't the best choice indeed but I surely don't believe that Nokia would get below 10% of the smartphone market by the end of 2011, this will not happen.

SymbianDeveloper

At least Symbian developers will have moved to Accenture before Nokia goes bust. There's still a chance of some severance guys!

Pallo

@live cricket streaming

I think Microsoft had 2 objectives for Nokia deal. It´s bit hard to say what was priority.
To kill MeeGo was truly top priority. With Nokias global spread combined with Intels push and multi industry cooperation for interoperable core system for multiple purposes was (and partly stil is) real threat to Microsofts core bussines both pc and mobile softs in few years.
To have worlds largest (smart)phonemaker to bow down to take OS and to burn other bridges was also important.
Meego is/was only platform that is not closed and allows every suplier of hardwares, softwares and services to compete with each other, for good of consumer.

cycnus

@Pallo

I 100% agree with you.
I also have wrote this several times on Tomi blog that the big conspiracy theory by me that MS might just want to kill open source.
Meego with Nokia + Intel support is a REAL THREAT for MS.
and QT by Nokia is also a REAL THREAT for MS.
If Meego become mainstream, QT got lots of developer
that's mean. MS platform (.Net, silverlight) will be less important

and windows will fail.

khim

@Pallo: Please check you facts before starting typing. MeeGo is more closed then Android. Core is open in both cases, but latest goodies (Honeycomb UI in case of Android and Swipe UI in case of Meego) are closed. And while Google publicly promises to open everything in Ice Cream Sandwich (see http://arstechnica.com/open-source/news/2011/05/google-announces-android-ice-cream-sandwich-will-merge-phone-and-tablet-oses.ars) there are no such promises from Nokia side.

@cycnus: This is plausible explanation for Elop's actions, but he's still the CEO so it's not enough. There were (are?) some additional arguments which convinced the board of directors. WTF are they is anyone's guess.

expalmandse

Tomi,
I cannot understand your position regarding Nokia reducing prices. Actually, I ma more impressed that it has not happen more aggressively. After Februuary announcement, I expected Nokia phone prices to come down very quickly. In front of a retail boycot and PR disaster, it becomes quite important to defend the market in your power rather than letting it go without a fight. Customers that they loose now will be almost impossible to recover, as you have well said. So Nokia needs to reduce prices AND keep their shops! At least until they find a way to appease the retailers.

cycnus

@expalmandse

i agree with you on pricing strategy, but tomi were pointing out that OPK (the CEO before elop) were fired because he's doing a price cut, in which lowering the ASP.

Pallo

@khim

I´m sorry for my weak english writing skills.
About MeeGo from Meego.com:
"The MeeGo project provides a Linux-based, open source software platform for the next generation of computing devices. The MeeGo software platform is designed to give developers the broadest range of device segments to target for their applications, including netbooks, handheld computing and communications devices, in-vehicle infotainment devices, smart TVs, tablets and more – all using a uniform set of APIs based on Qt. For consumers, MeeGo will offer innovative application experiences that they can take from device to device.

The MeeGo project is hosted by the linux foundation"

Core comes with different "reference/example" UX, for different purposes, for example, handheld UX, netbook UX...
All of those can run same software, it´s up to developer to optimize UI for different devices. Idea is that vendors (of hw) creates their own (propietary/closed) UI to differentiate themselfs as Nokia did with swipe UI. Even then same soft runs on all devices idependent from hw or ui, if developer havent done optimazion for spesific ui then asability suffers but code itself stil works.

So every on could compete, no monopolistic walled gardens.

Khim look at evolution of mobiles in last half decade, what a leaps. In few years mobiles can run every trivial desktop tasks with ease(spesific use cases need spesific tools) so why restrict usefulnes of devices to single or few monopoles. With "docking station" mobile changes to desktop when needed other UX. If you go to walled gardens "gate keeper" rules what you can and cannot do.
I don´t like idea of future where I have only three real options to choose Apple, Google and Microsoft. And in that world one can choose only one time without major risk to loose ability to easily change platform or device vendor.

SoVatar

What I just don't understand is why are Elop and (parts of) the Board still not fired. The numbers speak for themselves, there is just no sugarcoating. About 1 Billion loss in Q2 (if you count out Apple's IP payment), market share in free fall, share price down more than 50% since Feb 2011.

Who are the forces keeping these guys on their jobs and what are the reasons they do it? Are some of the major Nokia share holders net short so that they win if Nokia fails? Do major Nokia share holders think they can make more money letting Nokia fail by betting on the competition (MSFT, Apple, Moto, HYC, etc,)?

Is there still a game where somebody gains buying some Nokia assets cheaply while the rest of the company disappears into history?

As i said, I don't understand.

peter

SoVatar, hire a lawyer and sue both Elop and Jorma to Finland Court for the damage they had done to Nokia shareholders. $20B loss should be able to put these two into jail. and Nokia will come back immediately due to short sellers squeeze. Or use class action.

Leebase

A quick thought. Apple could afford to have 76 such disastrous 1B losses in a quarter.....in a row....and pay for them in cash. 19 years worth of "temporary profits" in the bank.

I think I'd take those temporary profits over Nokia's temporary marketshare leadership.

Lee

SoVatar

@peter:
AFAIK incompetence is not a crime, so the fact that Nokia lost $20B market value per se will not be enough to win a lawsuit. Somebody needs to be able to prove intent, and it is here where I am at a loss.

What is the intent behind Elop's / the Boards actions to make Nokia fail? What is the intent behind major shareholder's apparent willingness to to let Elop / Board make Nokia fail?

I cannot believe that it is incompetence on all three levels: CEO, Board and major shareholders. There must be a game somewhere in the dark why these 3 entities do what they are doing.

Granted, I see that 2 of the 3 levels are incompetent (namely Elop & the Board). But all 3?

peter

face it: there is no major investors in Nokia, all small individual shareholders who owns Symbian devices got betrayed by Elop and Jorma.

you have to start the suit to find more fact. just like Murdoch case. more fact will be found each day. Convetion wisdom manifests Elop and Jorma are criminals. They are not Trojan of Microsoft but agents of Wall Street Short sellers.

That's why you have to sue in Finnish court not here in America.

peter


SoVatar: You have to start the suit to find more fact. just like Murdoch case. more fact will be found each day. Conventional wisdom manifests Elop and Jorma are criminals. They are not Trojan of Microsoft but agents of Wall Street Short sellers. That's why you have to sue in Finnish court not here in America.


Rino

Tomi, You can read Sapnish, then read this sad news:
"Smartphones: Blackberry superó a Nokia en la Argentina
Los celulares de la canadiense RIM coparon el 40% del mercado en el primer semestre de 2011. En un año, Nokia pasó del 41% al 15% de los teléfonos inteligentes vendidos en el país",
Full new link: http://www.ieco.clarin.com/tecnologia/Blackberry-desbanco-Nokia-smartphone-argentinos_0_521948060.html
Thank you very much, for you and you post.

peter

Yes, Stephen Elop, you Microsoft Muppet. You must be fired and sued and barred from any executive position in any publically traded company. You are a disgrace! Your name will be synonymous with total corporate destruction from the inside - and by the CEO. Shame!

peter

tomi: the only thing that idiot elop got correct was to cut head counts by 4000 this year and another 3000 for year 2013. previous management obviously failed to do it.
can you comment on it?

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been posted. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment

Available for Consulting and Speakerships

  • Available for Consulting & Speaking
    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

Recent Comments

Tomi's eBooks on Mobile Pearls

  • Pearls Vol 1: Mobile Advertising
    Tomi's first eBook is 171 pages with 50 case studies of real cases of mobile advertising and marketing in 19 countries on four continents. See this link for the only place where you can order the eBook for download

Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009

  • Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009
    A comprehensive statistical review of the total mobile industry, in 171 pages, has 70 tables and charts, and fits on your smartphone to carry in your pocket every day.

Alan's Third Book: No Straight Lines

Tomi's Fave Twitterati