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« Mid-year Update to Nokia Smartphone Forecast to 2011, with View to 2012 and new Microsoft based phones | Main | The Ten Million Dollar Man - Stephen Elop Costs Nokia 10 Million Dollars More of Lost Profit - Every Day He Remains as CEO of Nokia »

July 25, 2011

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A propos

Micro-Kia-Noki-Soft's ecosystem will actually be based on Qt. After they port Qt to WP8, it will be the one platform to rule them all. Already they are hinting that Nokia's thumb-print will show later on but not yet in WP7 (Elop specifically said Qt will not be on WP7).

Qt is the answer to both of them (Nokia, MS): they both need a unified, developer-friendly, cross-platform development and UI framework. By joining their forces, they create a truly compelling ecosystem for developers that is new, powerful and not fragmented. THIS is what Elop got in the deal. We will see a future iteration of the Swipe UI on a range of WP8 -devices.

Nokia wins hugely by being able to leverage through Qt on all of it's price point's (S40, WP8, MeeGo?), all running the same apps. So does MS by leapfrogging into the mobile space through Nokia's "Next Billion" strategy, and that's where the growth is.

Now that would be disruptive, don't you think?

ejvictor

Crowbar
"The X7 was cancelled by AT&T because customers in market studies have simply ignored it."

In fact Nokia cancelled the X7 - NOT AT&T - I know this because a friend of mine is on the AT&T Mobility device team.

Crowbar

ejvictor: so why did Nokia cancel the X7? Doesn't sound like Tomi's theory of an operator boycott.

SWAP

Oh Tomi when will you start studying from developers point of view? Have you been active member of Maemo/MeeGo or for that matter even Symbian forum? Keep forums aside, have you been talking to developers at least. Or have you used WP7 phone extensively? Your analyses are good but most them written with your 'intense' love for Nokia and immense hate of Stephen Elop. Remember Nokia won't run on my or your sentiments.
Let me explain things one by one...
1)Traditional phrase, 'Saving money = earning money'. Symbian was costing too much because of its comlexed architecture. No it was made comlpex by devs working on it. Same decade old kernel extended with newer APIs everytime.It took toll on Symbian development. Very basic example could be of messed up input technology. If you have used Symbian S60 touch phones (I guess you've not), to input text to any app, when you hit text area another box pops up and then there you type your text and click on ok button and then finally it goes to the actual app. This happened because different teams working on same project without any coordination between them. It took them Symbian Anna to fix this problem. Also count the number of phones which Nokia shipped with same bug. Yes it was a bug. Even impressive N8/E7 have this bug. Now any other OS would have simply removed such bug in a update or two but even though S60 5th Ed i.e. touch UI was here for longer than expected and Nokia was biggest spender on R&D they couldn't remove this bug quickly. It's because of complex architecture of Symbian.

2)Almost all of the phones which Nokia shipped with Symbian 9.4/Symbian^1/S60 Touch UI were buggy. Some didn't have kinetic scrolling working properly while some others had RAM management issues, C6-00 is the best example and official changelog of V20 update of C6-00 underlines this issue. Just to throw phones to lower segment of market they kept doing it and lates one is C5-03. They could just halt the production of Symbian touch phones and continue with non-touch phones. The major share of Symbian is just because of non-touch Symbian phones especially those from E-series because those were most stable ones. Do you know E5 broke records of multi-tasking. And if you were ever to do this multi-tasking on S60 5th Ed phones you'd have preferred hitting them on wall. They were damn slower. Nokia could never optimize S60 5th Ed for their hardware. It ruined reputation of Symbian in users mind. Anyone who used those phones then would tell his friends to not go with Nokia for touch-phones. Leave multi-tasking those phones would get slower than ever once you start feeling your memory card and more slower when your inbox would start feeling up.

Symbian^3 should have been S60 5th Ed or Symbian Anna would have been much better. But even with Symbian Anna not all questions are solved. I currently have Symbian Anna phone with me and I tell you UI is sill complicated for touch phones. Fins have failed to use tap and hold for menu logic intuitively and extensively.You still have to press that damn 'Options' soft-key which obviously comes from non-touch Symbian phones, to get options you need. The problem with Nokia-Symbian engineers is that they are still using S60 non-touh UI as core or base to design touch UI. And now they are copying elements from Android and WP7.

3)On other hands WP7 phones are truly full touch phones. You can do everything without any need of special soft-key. Tap and hold for menu which lets you put shortcut of an app on your HS or lets you uninstall it too. It even beats Android,IMHO. WP7 in its early days has apps more than what iPhone 2G had. It's equipped with more capabilities. Unlike Android phones most of which have crappy hardware, WP7 phones are stable. Besides due to crappy hardware OEMs have to strip Android off many of its featuring like Flash Support in browser. So basically Android 2.2 Froyo which has full Flash support is useless on Galaxy Ace even though it has 800MHz processor and a GPU. On iPhone/iOS lack of flash could be understood but for an OS which was boasting Flash player as one of its key feature this is total disappointment. Even 600MHz isn't enough for Android. It's because Google is not concerned about UX end user is getting. They have no restrictions on OEMs regarding use of hardware such as CPU and RAM. On other hand WP7 makes it mandatory for OEMs to use 1GHz processor and 512 MB RAM to keep UX as smooth as possible. Besides they all phones are built-on same chipset or CPU-GPU combo so it makes MSFT really easy to optimize their OS for phones. Even Nokia will have to abide by the guidelines or better say restrictions.
On Android OEMs use their own UI pack which makes even harder to optimize next Android version on same hardware while keeping all features of previous version intact. To explain better, HTC Desire will be getting Gingerbread update but they will be cutting some apps to maintain performance.

4)OVI Store is complete looser. WP7 has much better Marketplace. You can download everything at one place, from apps to music. On Symbian there's OVI Store for apps and OVI Music for songs. There's no direct updating apps from OVI Store itself while Marketplace does the same thing with ease. Besides quality of apps is better than Symbian apps. On gaming front devs are more than eager to port their games to WP7 because of both powerful hardware and software since it uses same Xbox engine. Xbox 360 has been a 'seller' and connecting your phone to it is even better.

5)MeeGo is taking too much time to call it stable. And Nokia just developes handset part of it. There wasn't much awareness about the platform in devs. Indeed it was Nokia itself who didn't put too much efforts behind Maemo compared to Symbian.Why, Maemo tablets were not there in 2006/07/08 but how many people actually knew about it. Everybody knew about N95 but very few knew N810,Maemo internet tablet. If there were not plenty of Maemo devices then, then how can you expect to have more of them now. Maemo developed with speeds even slower than a turtle. Count the number of Maemo devices,it's just 4. So it's not Elop who killed it, its previous management who never let Maemo to come on front. Remember the fate N900 had to suffer. Elop just did a wise thing by putting that thing in lab and saved precious resources. BTW Maemo uses painful traditional Linux installer for apps and I don't expect it to be different on N9. On WP7 you can download app off the marketplace and remove by just using 'tap-hold o icon' menu.
The only problem with WP7 is that devices are costly. It's not that people using WP7 are unsatisfied. Indeed they are more satisfied than Android users. Nokia is famous for making mass market phones and they already have plans to create low budget phones. I even had HTC 7 Mozart for trial of course and when I showed them smoothness of OS,interesting apps,better browsing they instantly fell into love for it. The only concern was high-price and (could be)lesser margins for resellers. With Nokia this problem will be solved and MS wants it. And operators hating WP7 for Skype I heard T-Mobile has special Skype plan too.

Elop could hold the WP7 announcement little longer but then I don't think Symbian share could have gone down rapidly in just 3-4 months. However good Symbian is or was retiring it at earliest would just save them money.

So conclusion here is you shouldn't go by numbers always. Just give it a thought.

Regards

PERUS

@Crowbar: OPK was the root cause (it's my personal opinion). Ollila was a great leader. I can still remember on that story when he refused Bill Gates's offer about Windows Mobile and took Symbian instead. After that Calypso was born (I guess, or was it before?).

@ejvictor: Yes, I can confirm that. I can remember that Niklas Savander told us once about this issue.

@A propos: calm down... just wait for it... it's not only about QT and WP (I won't say it's 7) but probably also another OS.

By the way, it's funny how the most of people (incl. Tomi) try to speculate many things and claims that they were right. Well, some are correct though. But however, nice work! I really enjoy reading this blog.

SoVatar

@SWAP:

Can you please explain why there are no windows phones sold when they have all these advantages? Oh sorry, I forgot, there are some windows phones sold, a few hundred thousand per quarter. Great job, Microsoft.

A propos

@PERUS:

Tell us more about this new OS. :)

Endymion

btw a propos, that QT theory can already be discarded ( http://www.engadget.com/2011/02/11/nokia-notifies-developers-that-qt-is-out-for-windows-phone-devel/ )

PERUS

@A propos: let's concentrate on WP7 as primary smartphone OS first ;-)

@Endymion: based on press release at Feb 11th, no QT for WP7 (read my lips: "seven") because of time reason I believe, perhaps for the next WP? Who knows ;-)

A propos

Where do they actually say Qt will not be ported to WIN8/WP8? It is obvious it will not--can not--come to WP7, but I don't see why not on WP8.

"Microsoft would make available the existing free Windows Phone Developer Tools; Visual Studio 2010, Expression, Silverlight and the XNA Framework to developers. Together, we will provide guidance for developers wishing to port their applications to Windows Phone."

Now, we already know MS dropped Silverlight on WP8 but won't comment on the successor...HTML5 and JS will not cut it. All they say is: "wait for BUILD conference in September". I guess we'll see then. :)

symbianlover

Thing that comes up in my mind regarding Nokia's fall:
How many times did Nokia reorganize?
As example an article from: http://gigaom.com/2010/05/11/nokia-reorg-2010/
said that it was the fourth since Apple introduces iPhone in June of 2007 until that time (May 11th 2010).

I don't know the total number of reorg since OPK takes over the CEO position until Elop takes over his position. Actually, I'm not "never change a running system" kinda guy but somehow in a big company with more than 50k employees, there must be something wrong if you reorg too much, isn't?

I guess, on that time, if something fails or didn't work as expected, the ultimate solution was done through reorg and everything will be fine again, mostly the same (old) guy, they just simply do job-rotation...

peter

@A propos, MS drops silverlight support in WP8 has fundamental reason: it is energy thirsty. even regular laptop PC can not run smoothly without boosting CPU clock. it is simply not suitable for mobile phone at the moment. other reasons are non-open standard, hard to program, hard to debug. expression studio is expensive, vs2010 costs even more.

However, keep in mind, MS issue is not technical inability, even WM5 showed advanced multi-tasking for tiny ram footprint. MS's problem is the lacking of cool factor. hey, imagine steve jobs leads MS, it will easily suppass nowdays apple.

Nokia has its cool factor amnong billion Symbian users, however, the harm from nokia ceo criminal elop can never be condoned from loyal Symbian users. Chinese and European users have showed their hatred for being betrayed by a nokia ceo.

Elop lacks cool factor among world-wide consumers,distributors,carriers,shareholders, and nokia own employees. even if he didn't commit crime to them though elop comitted serious crime to all nokia ecosystem memebrs including intel and ti.

peter

@tomi, have you ever listened the QA session during nokia Q2 earnings call.

elop is a truely crap from any points of view except a fluent spoken English which seems better than OPK. he can not answer any question from analysists by touching the point except one about Meego N9. He quickly rejected Meego N9 as next nokia next generation product instead he emphased again that Meego n9 is target for reginal markets.

can you comment on it ?

John Phamlore

symbianlover,
According to articles such as
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/10/14/nokia_dilbert/
the reorganization that killed Nokia was planned in 2003, curiously by the same visionary CEO who had skillfully led the company the past decade. We can rule out the CEO becoming stupid or becoming senile; therefore, we must conclude he thought at the time that dividing Nokia into separate non-cooperative divisions was also visionary and necessary. Now why would he think that.

In articles such as
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/02/16/nokia_had_choices_but_couldnt_take_them/page2.html
we read a rumor that in 2002 Linus Torvalds had talked with Nokia management and had convinced them to fund a Linux "skunkworks." One would expect that Torvalds' advice would be listened to as he was a Finn and had already spent many years with Transmeta where presumably Torvalds would have had access to contacts that could describe the direction of future technology from the perspective of the West Coast of the United States.

There is I suspect one factor that Nokia could never have imagined, that a technologist when asked to present his best opinion about future directions would instead be limited by semi-religious considerations. It seems highly unlikely to me that Nokia's management would have bothered to have either read the famous Usenet flamewar between Torvalds and Professor Andrew Tanenbaum over microkernels in OS design or would have cared even if they did. That was their fatal mistake.

What Nokia had was a microkernel that needed extension. That is what Torvalds has always rejected, but for which there was another group of programmers who would have had extensive experience: the BSD programmers Apple hired to extend the original Mach-based OS of Next, eventually to a whole new ARM architecture. What Nokia needed was for a dispassionate technical analysis that would tell them it was well within the state of the art to extend a microkernel. What Nokia got in my opinion was a religious answer to burn down the company for a completely inappropriate switch to another OS.

Religious considerations inhibiting one from giving sound advice for a major company from own's own country is such a horrifying outcome that I would not be surprised if this is the case study in business school that argues that anyone who has ever created hardware or software with his own hands should by default be excluded from higher level decision making.

Deciding to build a Linux "skunkworks" from within in my opinion was the "rational" reason for reorganizing the company into competing divisions. The Linux and Symbian camps inside Nokia were set upon each other in a caricature of American capitalist Darwinian struggle. There could be no compromise until both were ejected from the company and a third way, Microsoft's Windows Phone 7, was chosen to break the tie.

Peter

simply solution:
1. Lay off those incompetent developers and their multilayer managers ; cut 50% R&D headcount is much needed;
2. Keep Meego and Symbian as main platforms and improve them on both hardware and software fronts,
a. upgrade high-end models with highest speed 2.0 GH duo-core cpu-gpu, 1024x640 4.3 display screen, 2GB ram, 64 GB Flash memory, 2000mah battery; (meego)
b. upgrade middle-end models with 1.2 duo-core cpu-gpu, 840x584 4.0 1GB ram, 32 GB Flash memory, 1600 mah; (meego)
c. upgrade etry level models with 1.0GH single-core cpu-gpu, 640x360 3.5 512MB ram, 16GB GB Flash memory, 1200 mah; (symbian)
3. Keep MS WP7.5/8 as middle-end line which shares same hardware platform as Meego middle-end device;(Qt as porting tools)
4. Open the option with android;
5. add voice cdma support;
6. setup strong relationships with att,tmobile,verizon,sprint,uscellar,cricket for usa market;

A well managed R&D team doesn't need more than 10,000 engineers. A lot of works can share the same code base (core-os, device driver, apps, globalization, etc), cpu-gpu-dsp motherboard, case etc;

fonts have to be open for free download or even auto-downlaod when users navigate to different language web pages; treat users friendly will bring more users, it is free mouth-ads.

all-in-all, stuborn, crime-oriented ceo steve elop has to be fired first, jorma ollila second.

Bill

I thought that the NOK Q4 201 numbers were distorted by channel stuffing and fraud especially in Asia? If that is the case then projections or arguments based on that quarter are invalid.

Peter

@Bill, if that is the case, elop would be happy to report to the public. he is not the person who do good to others.

on the contrary, it is elop's cut symbian paltform prematurely that caused huge decline in Chinese smartphone market. 50% down thats called collapse. the criminal elop fired Chinese popular sales director for his own fault. the elop deserve to go away immediately. too many evils have already committed.

Peter

latest market report:
nokia sales in usa via amazon is quickly collapsing since elop cut online stroe in usa. end of last month.

who's going to buy nokia products that do not have customer service/accessories and have been nailed down by its own ceo ?

esp., leaked 15-30% price cut to write off huge inventory cause by nokia ceo's bad-mouth crime ?

Peter

simply solutionn2:

7. bring skype, flash 10.3, silverlight 5, html5 compatible browser to ovi store;
8. bring zillow, redfin, etrade, mobile online payment into ovi store;
9. enhance ovi maps for globalization support, by default show localized maps giving users option to show translated version;
10. integrate ovi music/video/podcast/radio into ovi store;
11. bring all famous games into ovi store;
12. software tutoring, developing tools/utilities into ovi store;
13. online dictionaries, scientific calculator, office suite;
14. open android apps support;

UK

@Peter: about channel stuffing, check the China part here: http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2011/06/01/nokia-continues-slide-three-downgrades/

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