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« Mid-year Update to Nokia Smartphone Forecast to 2011, with View to 2012 and new Microsoft based phones | Main | The Ten Million Dollar Man - Stephen Elop Costs Nokia 10 Million Dollars More of Lost Profit - Every Day He Remains as CEO of Nokia »

July 25, 2011

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SoVatar

@SWAP:

Can you please explain why there are no windows phones sold when they have all these advantages? Oh sorry, I forgot, there are some windows phones sold, a few hundred thousand per quarter. Great job, Microsoft.

A propos

@PERUS:

Tell us more about this new OS. :)

Endymion

btw a propos, that QT theory can already be discarded ( http://www.engadget.com/2011/02/11/nokia-notifies-developers-that-qt-is-out-for-windows-phone-devel/ )

PERUS

@A propos: let's concentrate on WP7 as primary smartphone OS first ;-)

@Endymion: based on press release at Feb 11th, no QT for WP7 (read my lips: "seven") because of time reason I believe, perhaps for the next WP? Who knows ;-)

A propos

Where do they actually say Qt will not be ported to WIN8/WP8? It is obvious it will not--can not--come to WP7, but I don't see why not on WP8.

"Microsoft would make available the existing free Windows Phone Developer Tools; Visual Studio 2010, Expression, Silverlight and the XNA Framework to developers. Together, we will provide guidance for developers wishing to port their applications to Windows Phone."

Now, we already know MS dropped Silverlight on WP8 but won't comment on the successor...HTML5 and JS will not cut it. All they say is: "wait for BUILD conference in September". I guess we'll see then. :)

symbianlover

Thing that comes up in my mind regarding Nokia's fall:
How many times did Nokia reorganize?
As example an article from: http://gigaom.com/2010/05/11/nokia-reorg-2010/
said that it was the fourth since Apple introduces iPhone in June of 2007 until that time (May 11th 2010).

I don't know the total number of reorg since OPK takes over the CEO position until Elop takes over his position. Actually, I'm not "never change a running system" kinda guy but somehow in a big company with more than 50k employees, there must be something wrong if you reorg too much, isn't?

I guess, on that time, if something fails or didn't work as expected, the ultimate solution was done through reorg and everything will be fine again, mostly the same (old) guy, they just simply do job-rotation...

peter

@A propos, MS drops silverlight support in WP8 has fundamental reason: it is energy thirsty. even regular laptop PC can not run smoothly without boosting CPU clock. it is simply not suitable for mobile phone at the moment. other reasons are non-open standard, hard to program, hard to debug. expression studio is expensive, vs2010 costs even more.

However, keep in mind, MS issue is not technical inability, even WM5 showed advanced multi-tasking for tiny ram footprint. MS's problem is the lacking of cool factor. hey, imagine steve jobs leads MS, it will easily suppass nowdays apple.

Nokia has its cool factor amnong billion Symbian users, however, the harm from nokia ceo criminal elop can never be condoned from loyal Symbian users. Chinese and European users have showed their hatred for being betrayed by a nokia ceo.

Elop lacks cool factor among world-wide consumers,distributors,carriers,shareholders, and nokia own employees. even if he didn't commit crime to them though elop comitted serious crime to all nokia ecosystem memebrs including intel and ti.

peter

@tomi, have you ever listened the QA session during nokia Q2 earnings call.

elop is a truely crap from any points of view except a fluent spoken English which seems better than OPK. he can not answer any question from analysists by touching the point except one about Meego N9. He quickly rejected Meego N9 as next nokia next generation product instead he emphased again that Meego n9 is target for reginal markets.

can you comment on it ?

John Phamlore

symbianlover,
According to articles such as
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/10/14/nokia_dilbert/
the reorganization that killed Nokia was planned in 2003, curiously by the same visionary CEO who had skillfully led the company the past decade. We can rule out the CEO becoming stupid or becoming senile; therefore, we must conclude he thought at the time that dividing Nokia into separate non-cooperative divisions was also visionary and necessary. Now why would he think that.

In articles such as
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/02/16/nokia_had_choices_but_couldnt_take_them/page2.html
we read a rumor that in 2002 Linus Torvalds had talked with Nokia management and had convinced them to fund a Linux "skunkworks." One would expect that Torvalds' advice would be listened to as he was a Finn and had already spent many years with Transmeta where presumably Torvalds would have had access to contacts that could describe the direction of future technology from the perspective of the West Coast of the United States.

There is I suspect one factor that Nokia could never have imagined, that a technologist when asked to present his best opinion about future directions would instead be limited by semi-religious considerations. It seems highly unlikely to me that Nokia's management would have bothered to have either read the famous Usenet flamewar between Torvalds and Professor Andrew Tanenbaum over microkernels in OS design or would have cared even if they did. That was their fatal mistake.

What Nokia had was a microkernel that needed extension. That is what Torvalds has always rejected, but for which there was another group of programmers who would have had extensive experience: the BSD programmers Apple hired to extend the original Mach-based OS of Next, eventually to a whole new ARM architecture. What Nokia needed was for a dispassionate technical analysis that would tell them it was well within the state of the art to extend a microkernel. What Nokia got in my opinion was a religious answer to burn down the company for a completely inappropriate switch to another OS.

Religious considerations inhibiting one from giving sound advice for a major company from own's own country is such a horrifying outcome that I would not be surprised if this is the case study in business school that argues that anyone who has ever created hardware or software with his own hands should by default be excluded from higher level decision making.

Deciding to build a Linux "skunkworks" from within in my opinion was the "rational" reason for reorganizing the company into competing divisions. The Linux and Symbian camps inside Nokia were set upon each other in a caricature of American capitalist Darwinian struggle. There could be no compromise until both were ejected from the company and a third way, Microsoft's Windows Phone 7, was chosen to break the tie.

Peter

simply solution:
1. Lay off those incompetent developers and their multilayer managers ; cut 50% R&D headcount is much needed;
2. Keep Meego and Symbian as main platforms and improve them on both hardware and software fronts,
a. upgrade high-end models with highest speed 2.0 GH duo-core cpu-gpu, 1024x640 4.3 display screen, 2GB ram, 64 GB Flash memory, 2000mah battery; (meego)
b. upgrade middle-end models with 1.2 duo-core cpu-gpu, 840x584 4.0 1GB ram, 32 GB Flash memory, 1600 mah; (meego)
c. upgrade etry level models with 1.0GH single-core cpu-gpu, 640x360 3.5 512MB ram, 16GB GB Flash memory, 1200 mah; (symbian)
3. Keep MS WP7.5/8 as middle-end line which shares same hardware platform as Meego middle-end device;(Qt as porting tools)
4. Open the option with android;
5. add voice cdma support;
6. setup strong relationships with att,tmobile,verizon,sprint,uscellar,cricket for usa market;

A well managed R&D team doesn't need more than 10,000 engineers. A lot of works can share the same code base (core-os, device driver, apps, globalization, etc), cpu-gpu-dsp motherboard, case etc;

fonts have to be open for free download or even auto-downlaod when users navigate to different language web pages; treat users friendly will bring more users, it is free mouth-ads.

all-in-all, stuborn, crime-oriented ceo steve elop has to be fired first, jorma ollila second.

Bill

I thought that the NOK Q4 201 numbers were distorted by channel stuffing and fraud especially in Asia? If that is the case then projections or arguments based on that quarter are invalid.

Peter

@Bill, if that is the case, elop would be happy to report to the public. he is not the person who do good to others.

on the contrary, it is elop's cut symbian paltform prematurely that caused huge decline in Chinese smartphone market. 50% down thats called collapse. the criminal elop fired Chinese popular sales director for his own fault. the elop deserve to go away immediately. too many evils have already committed.

Peter

latest market report:
nokia sales in usa via amazon is quickly collapsing since elop cut online stroe in usa. end of last month.

who's going to buy nokia products that do not have customer service/accessories and have been nailed down by its own ceo ?

esp., leaked 15-30% price cut to write off huge inventory cause by nokia ceo's bad-mouth crime ?

Peter

simply solutionn2:

7. bring skype, flash 10.3, silverlight 5, html5 compatible browser to ovi store;
8. bring zillow, redfin, etrade, mobile online payment into ovi store;
9. enhance ovi maps for globalization support, by default show localized maps giving users option to show translated version;
10. integrate ovi music/video/podcast/radio into ovi store;
11. bring all famous games into ovi store;
12. software tutoring, developing tools/utilities into ovi store;
13. online dictionaries, scientific calculator, office suite;
14. open android apps support;

UK

@Peter: about channel stuffing, check the China part here: http://blogs.barrons.com/techtraderdaily/2011/06/01/nokia-continues-slide-three-downgrades/

PERUS

@Peter: Great solution! Don't forget, at the end to crucify Elop (probably Balmer too) and take over his position! Go go go...

Ahmed

I am not in total agreement with you as all others are. I am a big fan of Nokia, maemo and now drooling over Meego. I too realise that Symbian was great in its own market segment.

So, your analysis of Nokias future, though you use "best case" a lot does't really sound off like the best case. You have been right in the past, no doubt, but I hope you aren't in the future.

First off we have to consider that Nokia is getting an opening into the biggest smartphone market that it never was in all through its history. The biggest ramp up is going to be there for the new products.

Yes symbians death announcement has slowed Nokia down, but it has not hurt its brand image and neither has Microsoft lost its global markets. Both of these are giants in the global sphere and microsofts all other products dominates the US market. Based on this I am confident that they will set a new record of product rampup much huger than Google ever could.

When one buys into MS+Nokia phone you get a completely ready phone with the best hardware and radio futures with a tested and appreciated software allready on v2. The ecosystem of WP7 is allready there and will further grow with Nokia. When Apple and Google launched they had none of this and yet were able to rampup the way they did, so one can imagine what kind of disruption Nokia can do.

Elop took the hard decision, leaders have to. He was aware of momentary growth in Symbian, but he was brought into affect a change. Though his announcement affected the shorterm stability of the company but the same bold announcement gives him the credibility to launch and grow the new platform with that much more zest.

Majority of the Nokia customers never cared what the software was called, it is always only Nokia and so it will be when WP7 comes on Nokia. With the fantastic designs that are coming out, I am confident and willing to put my money into the Nokia stock today expecting huge gains by Q3 2012 itself when the momentum will be seen by all.

SWAP

The reason behind all Symbian phones which Nokia sold is they were made by 'Nokia' and not because they were Symbian. Remember when Apple iPhone and Nokia launched 5800XM people who couldn't afford iPhone bought 5800XM because 1.It was cheaper than iPhone, 2.It was Nokia phone,3.It was Nokia touchscreen not SE or Samsung. Even Samsung had Omnia HD which was way better in terms of hardware than both phones above.Would you believe if I say Omnia HD had 600MHz processor and PowerVR SGX GPU, which was never seen on Symbian phones.It had 8MP AF cam with 720p HD recording. It was much much better than 5800XM and could give iPhone run for its money. But can you tell me why it didn't sell? 1.Back then people were not looking to Samsung as interesting and reliable maker.Anyways Samsung had after sales service issues. and 2. Samsung didn't put much efforts behind it. They were even reluctant to provide software updates.
And Symbian is taking too long to mature and deliver. You think Symbian could catch up with iOS/Android in usability standards? A very simple example, even in Symbian Anna you have to perform 9 steps to put app shortcut on homescreen whereas in Android just 1, in WP7 just 2. And next time please write your analysis with neutral mind. I don't see anything else but hate for Elop in your posts.
Somebody on last page (i guess it skovtar) asked me why WP7 phones didn't sell. It was mainly because of lack of marketing by respective OEMs and margin factor. Besides they can't even show off their 'talent' by customizing OS in any way. I've never seen any TVC or web-ad by HTC for their WP7 phones in India (this where I stay) not even by Samsung. But these same companies are advertising their driods crazily even if they are able to provide stripped down Android.

Kinkfisher

As a poster above said, from an app ecosystem standpoint, Symbian was going nowhere. It was a pain to develop for. There was little chance developers would target it, given a choice.

Symbian smartphones may have been showing some growth, but it'd be only a temporary rebound without a strong app ecosystem. WP7, despite it's low market share, has an app store that's growing like crazy. How long do you think people would hold on to their Symbian smartphones when they can't get the shiny apps available on the other platforms?

I think it was pretty clear that in the post-iPhone "apps apps apps!" world, Nokia would have to ditch Symbian for either Android or WP7.

cycnus

@Asko

Elop is not used car salesman.
He's an snake oil salesman (conman).

NHL Jersey

I like Nokia Smartphones but i hope you can increase the Andrew system.

UGG

I’ve found that sometimes a good visual can make all the difference to a blog post, so I’m always sure to include at least one. They brighten the place up a little too.

term paper

It's very interesting post! Thanks.

patlatma tas

counterinsurgency for cheap counter-terrorism. Not only will konteynercounterproductivity result, isn't this a tacit admission that al-Qaeda really is bleeding America outkonut projeleri

beats by dre store

try to speculate many things and claims that they were right. Well, some are correct though. But however, nice work! I really enjoy reading this blog.

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  • Available for Consulting & Speaking
    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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