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« The real numbers for Nokia Q1 are hidden under China sugar-coating | Main | The Patient Heart Has Stopped. Now the Doctor 'helps' by starting to strangle the patient too (Stephen Elop incompetence) »

June 06, 2011

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JukkaM

It is also rumoured, that Apple will announce carrier billing for app store today. Bye bye for the last advantage of OVI sStore.

RobDK

Totally agree with Tomi's call. Not only will Apple be the largest smartphone manufacturer, they already take the largest revenues and profit share in the sector.

Triple whammy! No wonder Apple is now bigger than Microsoft and Intel combined!

Borik

http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/comscore-reports-april-2011-us-mobile-subscriber-market-share-123098853.html

Seems like Samsung LG and Motorola making more phones...

usnuyh

Are u saying that Apple is going to be the #1 in smartphone market share only because of Nokia is not doing good? It might be true that Apple may sell more smartphones than Nokia in q2 of 2011 but i read this article in Korean online news paper on June 1,2011 saying there is possibility that Samsung could be the #1 in smartphone market share in q2 of 2011 because Nokia is not doing good and absence of new phones from Apple and some problems with supplying parts from Apple which will bring those two companies market share down compare to q1 of 2011, meanwhile Samsung's galaxy s2 and other mid-low priced smartphones are selling more than they expected in North America, Europe and Asia and grabbing some of Nokia's market share. Also this article was saying that They were expecting about 15 million smartphone shipments in q2 of 2011 but now they raised it to between 19 million to 20 million which means Samsung(a single android supplier) by itself is already near or over Apple in q2 of 2011 smartphone market share.

I can't never find any English version of this but here are some website address

http://www.hankyung.com/news/app/newsview.php?aid=2011060164076
http://www.edaily.co.kr/news/NewsRead.edy?SCD=DB32&newsid=01367766596277456&DCD=A10105&OutLnkChk=Y
http://fn.segye.com/articles/article.asp?
aid=20110601000383&cid=0503010000000

So i think it's too early to say congratulations to Apple because 17% market share may not be enough to be #1. Are you sure that Apple is going to be #1 in q2? Any arguments about this article???

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Jukka, Rob, Borik, usnuyh and I'll let you keep that comment, Phil..

Jukka - yeah, it will come sooner or later. Carrier billing takes a long time to build across the carrier space but its an advantage that wouldn't last. However, Nokia did it first and widest. And now Nokia gifts this very expensive effort for free to Microsoft and Nokia rivals on WP7. Not exactly smartest move by Nokia CEO but would be great achievement by any Microsoft employee (or Microsoft Muppet)

Rob - yeah. Note, there is now a Nomura analysis saying Samsung has leapfrogged both Nokia and Apple and ahead of Apple. I have it still Apple first, Sammy second and Nokia third for Q2 but its close and Sammy may well actually be biggest. They'll definitely overtake Apple during this year because Apple focuses only on the top price niche, and Samsung does full price range of smartphones. Also as you point out, Apple is unbeatable in revenues and profit.

Borik - first, you are quoting USA numbers, this blog is about global numbers. Secondly, you are looking at 'dumbphones' not smartphones in that statistic. But thanks anyway.

usnuyh - yeah, I was counting that Apple would be roughly flat, maybe a bit of a decline for Q2 (this calendar Q2, not Apple fiscal quarter, ie I am talking of April-June quarter) but that Nokia will crash well below Apple. I am expecting iPhone in the 15M-17M range, and Nokia to fall into the 12M-14M range. You make a good point about the Korean speculation that Samsung may have passed Nokia (and Apple) too. I am certain that will happen this year, but was expecting it to happen in the Autumn, not now. But Samsung is growing very strongly, it is well within their reach to pass both Nokia and Apple, particularly because Samsung offers low-cost smartphones too on the bada OS, in addition to Android at high price point. The little wrinkle I have in my model, is that I was expecting us to hear that bada cumulative sales had passed 10M already, and that has not been communicated. It may be that it has happened but Sammy is waiting to announce it at some big event, but also its possible that they are inching towards it but haven't yet passed 10M. That is why I am not confident Samsung has passed Apple in Q2. They may also be the new number 1, behind Apple but ahead of Nokia haha, dropping Nokia to number 3. We will see shortly in the month of July when all three companies report their quarterly results.

I deleted Phil's comment as he clearly doesn't appreciate this blog. I trust we won't see Phil here anymore

To the rest who posted, thank you for the comments and please keep the comments coming.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

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Nokia was on the come-back trajectory. Not winning - I am not saying they were better now than Android or iPhone - but Nokia was turning the corner. And then Elop did this nonsense that destroyed it all.

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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