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« My E7 Review: Nokia's Best Phone Ever.. To Annoy and Aggravate Loyal Nokia Users: The superphone that could have been (and should have been) | Main | Do I Really Have To? Ok, ok, ok. I will do update to Nokia disaster year, after Profit Warning »

May 27, 2011



I guess the only question is could Nokia end the year with a single digit market share? If they don't bring out a WinPhone handset, I think that's what they are looking at.


Apple and Samsung will surpass Nokia's Smartphone market share before the year runs out! Me prediction!!

Richard Gregory

Sorry to ask a daft questions, but are these US or Global figures?


If you guys see that in various brand that the WP7 vs. android, android were winning.
People choose android htc over wp7 htc, or android SE over wp7 se.

so, why would we expect people buy wp7 nokia.


So this means one thing, Nokia goes down faster than expected (much thanks to themselves) and Apple becomes the biggest player both by unit sales and revenue, and then it's up to RIM and Samsung to show what they worth. Is my assumption correct?

Victor Szulc

No... RIM is bleeding marketshare at the moment in Europe as well as the US, and what's worse for them... Their niche in the enterprise is being taken over by iOS and Android. Don't be surprised if RIM pulls completely out of consumer-smartphones in a year or two, to concentrate on enterprise solutions, middleware, etc.

Regarding Android vs. WP7... Cycnus, you're a moron if you're comparing the two directly, or assume that Nokia WP7 sales will be weak because of the current WP7 sales.
WP7 has only been released in a handful of markets yet, and in a few languages and their current performance is far from terrible or bad. It's not bad at all in fact.

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It's not only market share that is down but also Nokia's stock: After warning of a bad Q2 today, share price is down 15%.

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi all, I'll start with the replies and will answer each individually

Hi Michael, Afewgoodmen, Richard, Leebase and cygnus

Michael - yea, it now looks very likely Nokia ends the year in single digits. This is by far the biggest collapse of any company ever, who entered the year with globally leading market share and threw this much of it away in a 12 month span..

Afewgoodmen - yea, safe bet. Actually I'm sure RIM will do so too and its likely HTC will pass Nokia as well, dropping thus Nokia down from number 1 to number 5 by Q4

Richard - these are global numbers. I always report global numbers here, except where I specifically mention otherwise. My readership is global... (I myself am a Finn living here in Hong Kong)

Leebase - yeah, true, and actually if I recall, Apple passed Nokia 'as a phone manufacturer' by revenue, not just as a smartphone maker. Massive year for Apple already and only getting better..

cygnus - excellent point and I had never thought of that angle before! Thanks! yes, on the SAME brand manufacturers, Windows Phone 7 handsets are suffering versus Android.. Ouch indeed. But Microsoft does get at least one new chance, for real, with the first Microsoft-Nokia handsets around the end of the year - they could do a dramatic come-back and even if Nokia is crushed in the process, Microsoft gets its Phone 7 onto its feet after Microsoft itself messed up the migration path from a reasonably ok-performing Windows Mobile in 2009.

I will return with more comments later, keep the discussion going

Tomi Ahonen :-)


At the Nokia's earnings call (mid April), they gave a range of margins that had 50% variability (6%-9% margins range) for a quarter that was already way under way.

I posted them that that was a sign of a company in disarray. No company the size of Nokia is that uncertain on margins for the current (already in progress quarter).

Well, unfortunately, I was proven right and their disarray is even worse. They now think they'll have ZERO margins (break even) for this quarter and have cancelled guidance for Q3 and Q4.

They also confessed to channel stuffing and mismanagement, at least in china.

The company is in a race to the bottom. Their handsets are undesirable by high-value customers in advanced markets, and can only sell at discount in the third world. Furthermore, they will face a barrage of cheap Android phones later in the year.

They have nowhere to ride. Even their Series 40 is taking a beating.

To Elop's credit, he did come clean with an Update, but this company is headed for serious financial trouble. Not just high-end smartphone trouble. But full product line, money loosing trouble.

Jouko Ahvenainen

Tomi, do you have new numbers of all handsets (not only smartphones).

My prediction (I'm not an analyst or expert, just follow the market) is that Samsung take the #1 position in volumes in this year. It looks like Nokia goes down fast and I cannot see, what could turn it in this year; it only looks worse.

It was interesting to see HTC is ahead Samsung in Android.

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So Nokia is already 4 market share points below what I projected, 5 million unit sales below what I projected. It is almost spot-on on the average sales price drop as I predicted, thus total smartphone revenues are 700 million dollars below what I projected for the quarter. If you thought Nokia's year 2011 was going to be an annus horribilis based on Ahonen's doom-and-gloom blog, it is clearly going to be far worse...

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or the quarter. If you thought Nokia's year 2011 was going to be an annus horribilis based on Ahonen's doom-and-gloom blog, it is clearly going to be far worse...

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40 bets. The total value of the betting was 26 Euros. Again, not 26 thousand or 26 million. Over three months, the service that cost 33,000 Euros to develop

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Cycnus, you're a moron if you're comparing the two directly, or assume that Nokia WP7 sales will be weak because of the current WP7 sales.

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comparing the two directly, or assume that Nokia WP7 sales will be weak because of the current WP7 sales.

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WP7 has only been released in a handful of markets yet, and in a few languages and their current performance is far from terrible or bad. It's not bad at all in fact. How can you say it's not bad at all?


I will return with more comments later, keep the discussi

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Bonne chance à vous dans le futur. Vous m'avez aidé aujourd'hui.


So Nokia is really on the top of this business then, well I guess they deserve to be on the top, they have proven their capacity and what they can do already.

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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