My Photo

Ordering Information

Tomi on Twitter is @tomiahonen

  • Follow Tomi on Twitter as @tomiahonen
    Follow Tomi's Twitterfloods on all matters mobile, tech and media. Tomi has over 8,000 followers and was rated by Forbes as the most influential writer on mobile related topics

Book Tomi T Ahonen to Speak at Your Event

  • Contact Tomi T Ahonen for Speaking and Consulting Events
    Please write email to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com and indicate "Speaking Event" or "Consulting Work" or "Expert Witness" or whatever type of work you would like to offer. Tomi works regularly on all continents

Tomi on Video including his TED Talk

  • Tomi on Video including his TED Talk
    See Tomi on video from several recent keynote presentations and interviews, including his TED Talk in Hong Kong about Augmented Reality as the 8th Mass Media

Subscribe


Blog powered by Typepad

« Some Milestones We Will See This Year in Mobile Statistics | Main | Smartphones Bloodbath Year 2, Q1: Now Nokia. Ouch, this is painful »

April 22, 2011

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00e0097e337c8833014e88000d73970d

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference First numbers of the first quarter in Bloodbath year 2: Apple reports stunning quarter:

Comments

Michael

Tomi:
Excellent analysis as usual. Two things to consider...

1. I'm not sure I agree with your analysis of the US market. If Verizon had not come on board, I believe it's possible that a sizable percentage of the 2.2 million VZW accounts would have gone to another handset. That's why the Apple lawsuit against Samsung.

2. It now rumored that the 2011 iPhone debut will be late 3rd quarter, not early 3rd quarter. If true, Apple is taking a very big risk.

Matt Johnston

Great article - lots of work into it - but (aha!) I think I'd downplay the risks you describe. Remember that iphone sales are still decent in Q2 every year even though we all knew a new one comes out at the end of the quarter. Heck - there are people still buying the 3GS model now. And the reason for this is software - not hardware. Apple will likely release iOS5 to devs in June and we'll see it with the public shortly after. Software is what drives the iphone and we can only speculate what will be the new killer feature.

An advantage they have is their strong brand. Though the only Android tablet on sale locally is the Galaxy Tab, I know no-one with one. And we've got another 99 tablet makers in the wings as well? That Market will be a bloodbath. It's not going to be pretty. Android itself is already confusing the customer by making it's only differentiating feature the presence of Flash. I won't even go into the build quality of the devices.

Keep up the good work.

khim

When people will learn? Apple is expediencies classic "disruption from below". They have NO hope to fight for the low-end and even if they will play for the middle of of the pyramid with iPhone Nano... it'll be risky. So they concentrate on the very high-end - where the profits are.

This is good decision: if they'll try to compete on price they'll be bankrupt in a few years time. They just don't know how to play these games. If they'll keep the top of the pyramid - they'll be profitable for ten years or more (albeit with eventually shrinking market share in a few years) and will have a hope to open some new lucrative market.

Bob

good analysis, I expect AT&T IPhone sales to be massively hit this quarter when more people know that IPhone is on verizon

Leebase

Apple grew at 15% for the quarter, verses the industry 5%, and you don't credit at all the CDMA version of the phone? Just because Verizon + AT&T sales together equal the same 31% of total sales does not indicate that AT&T would have sold all the iPhones themselves without the Verizon iPhone. That's just not logically sound reasoning.

And sure. If you keep on predicting that iPhones will eventually stall marketsharewise -- you'll EVENTUALLY be right. But that doesn't mean you are right now, were right yesterday or were right all along. It would simply mean you were wrong all along and eventually were right only because NOTHING lasts forever.

A phone is not a phone is not a phone. Apple could not sell it's "iPhone experience" in a cheaper phone. Sure, Nokia and Samsung and the like can make all manner of cheap phones. They are not selling what Apple is. No, Apple is properly holding the line on selling it's experience (hardware, software, services, retail stores etc.).

Now, Goodwin's law will take care of the rest. Apple won't NEED to sell only the most expensive phone in the future because the cost of the "iPhone experience" will naturally come down. Apple will indeed have a cheaper and more expensive iPhone line when AT LEAST even the cheaper phone can live up to the iPhone experience. And not before.

Now Android's panoply of companies are indeed following your advice, and they have, indeed, blew away Apple's marketshare and have topped Nokia's (when combined). I don't think Apple envies them one bit. I don't think Apple believes they have missed any opportunity. One need only look to see which method is reaping the greatest financial rewards to see that it's Apple making the better choices.

Apple is not merely a mobile phone company. The iPhone is part of a family of "post pc" products.

Lee

Piot

"...... AT&T was totally on track to sell about 5.8 million iPhones, based on Q3 2010 projections"

How can I put this politely? Poppycock!

In the last two years AT&T's Q1 iPhone sales have been considerably LOWER than the previous year's Q3 numbers. Between 16 and 33% LOWER.

So I would have to guess that those "projections" must have come from... you, and you alone.

kevin

Tomi,

I, like Piot and Michael, don't think Apple would've had 5.8m US iPhone activations without VZW. AT&T has reported the following for iPhone activations, beginning with CY 3Q08: 2.4m, 1.9, 1.6, 2.4, 3.2, 3.1, 2.7, 3.2, 5.2, 4.1, and 3.6 (+2.2 VZW) in this last quarter. The general pattern is a big boost in launch quarter (or qtr immediately following since June launches are very late in quarter), followed by declines in Dec and Mar quarters. Without VZW, Apple may have had just 3.7-3.8m units activated in the US (due to lowered to $49 3GS). Plus, all the VZW units were higher-priced iPhone 4s (not cheaper 3GS), and that's what moved the ASP upward by ~$20.

You used percentages to defend your point but that's not valid. The US percentage of all iPhone sales has ranged from 25% to 46%.since 3Q08. Since the launch of iPhone 4, it had declined from 38% (Jun08) to 37% to 25% (Dec08), and likely would've gone down even more in this last quarter without VZW.

evden eve nakliyat

one sales in just one year would be astonishing in almost any other 100 Billion dollar industry - except that the smartphone market almost

Christian Louboutin Mary Janes


I gave my site a few examples below. If you appreciate my comments in you enter.

mantolama izolasyon

I will cover them in compendium blog article next week. The first massive news, and a true salvo fired by a big gun of smartphones came when Apple reported two days ago.

prefabrik

Trojan horse to undermine the biggest European business. I do not think that it
It's up to the Finnish government to investigate and scrutinize the whole case with this "deal".

rehau

But I have been very rushed, exceptional travel, and those were not that sensational results one way or another, I will cover them in compendium blog article next week. The first massive news, and a true salvo fired by a big gun of

aluminyum

But I have been very rushed, exceptional travel, and those were not that sensational results one way or another, I will cover them in compendium blog

mobilya

Nokia dumbphones unit sales are down by 12% to 84 million units. The average sales price is down by one Euro to 42. Total revenues yes, are obviously then also down,

Christian Louboutin Boots

That was a great piece of information, I enjoyed reading it.

toilet seat

I will cover them in compendium blog article next week. The first massive news, and a true salvo fired by a big gun of smartphones came when Apple reported two days ago.

cheap jordans

This is a good blog. Keep up all the work. I too love blogging and expressing my opinions.

nike basketball shoes

Thank you for this article. That's all I can say. You most definitely have made this blog into something special. You clearly know what you are doing, you've covered so many bases.Thanks!

dünya rehberi

case study, we have to monitor these facts and see, but this kind of bombardment of audiences can explain why

Office 2010

Microsoft Office 2007 Professional Government has established security forces at nearly every corner in every district in the town like not ever before and the cause we had earlier been granted was that of the common terrorism risks the homeland obtains from the Somali militants.

Cheap Supra Shoes

You're wasting you breath.

Cheap Supra Shoes

You're wasting you breath.

NFL jerseys

That’s an appealing stance you took. When I look at the title, I right away had a disagreement of opinion, but I do see your side.

sorgula sorgulama

handset market grew, but smartphones grew much faster in the past 3 months. Nokia reported it reported a bigger decline in its smartphones o

yemek tarifi

to finance this transition. In this way both NSN and the dumbphones units are failing Nokia now when their contributions are direly

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been posted. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment

Available for Consulting and Speakerships

  • Available for Consulting & Speaking
    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

Recent Comments

Tomi's eBooks on Mobile Pearls

  • Pearls Vol 1: Mobile Advertising
    Tomi's first eBook is 171 pages with 50 case studies of real cases of mobile advertising and marketing in 19 countries on four continents. See this link for the only place where you can order the eBook for download

Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009

  • Tomi Ahonen Almanac 2009
    A comprehensive statistical review of the total mobile industry, in 171 pages, has 70 tables and charts, and fits on your smartphone to carry in your pocket every day.

Alan's Third Book: No Straight Lines

Tomi's Fave Twitterati