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« Nokia Autopsy on MeeGo - One last look back, Before we look forward on the New Nokia | Main | Noki-Soft Windfall - who wins most when Micro-Kia hand away lucrative smartphone empire bigger than Blackberry, bigger than iPhone »

February 15, 2011

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Comments

 Tomi T Ahonen

I have removed comments by Atul and Eugen

Atul was removed because he had not read the blog. I never let such pointless comments stand on this blog. Atul, read the article, I clearly explained what Microsoft office suite can do and is doing with E-Series.

I also removed Eugen's comment. It was about Nokia's past - please Eugen, post that comment into the blog about Nokia's past and its alternate futures like Qt and MeeGo - this blog is about the future of Nokia which will be clearly with Microsoft.

Thank you

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Arthur

Tomi, do you have any information regarding the assumption that all following symbian devices will be low end to mid end products? because during the Q & A session of nokia MWC, it was stated that gigahertz plus processors would be used.

Atul Gupta

Tomi , I believe if the comments does not suit you , you remove them . One will always not praise you , although agreed that your work is really smart.

However you should be open for open communication and say if a person read main points in your blog then he has the right to comment on the blog or not ?

This partnership seems like gives Context Based Computing to end users which can altogether change the game.

Kalle

@Atul Gupta

Six months is a long time to be in the market without a product. If you've known Nokia R&D guys you know that they are enthusiastic Linux guys. MeeGo was the game they learned to play in school. Now you have a bunch of players told switch sport. Drop your hockey sticks guys. Today we are going to play badminton instead.

All this might be good for the consumer, but it wont be good for Nokia.

Anti Microsoft sentiment inside Nokia R&D is strong and a lot of heads will have to roll before the troops will switch sides and even then they'll do it reluctantly. It is also a problem of bruised ego.

Tommis analysis might be bit harsh. I have a feeling that Nokia board will go into defensive mode after realizing the damage they've done to themselves. There will be drumming up of current products. Tommi is probably right though that MeeGo is now dropped for good and somebody else will make the next magical phones.

Phil W

Hi Tomi, my heart hopes that you are wrong, my brain says that you are probably right.

EO

Hi Tomi,

I want to thank you for a great analysis, even though it seems a bit too pessimistic for my taste (I really hope that Nokia will live through this change!)

I just wanted to say that perhaps there is some silver lining in the cloud that is the WP7's future:

http://www.engadget.com/2011/02/14/microsoft-shows-off-windows-phone-7s-future-with-multitasking/

Hopefully they will upgrade the OS fast to make it more compelling.

DS

Nokia have actually performed its duty. It reinforced .net devs belief in the WP7 plaform, the crisis situation (caused by relatively small uptake) is under control and they can go on not hampered by chicken and egg dillema.
Even if the whole announcement was fake shot by Nokia in exchange for say $1b it'd still be a good investment for MS.

cycnus

Dear Tomi,

Thanks for this wonderfull piece of article.

I really wonder if nokia sales number especially symbian would down that much. I believe you wrote somewhere in your blog, that most buyer did not choose the phone based on OS platform.

I would also comment about WP7 vs. Meego.
I seen WP7 UI on youtube and I still do believe the N900 and N8 UI is better, and **IF** somehow Meego from various manufacture would sell well beyond Nokia WP7, it would be ashamed situation for Steven Elop. And I really want to see Meego beating WP7. :)


Thanks

DS

To Tomi, in your story about Bada Samsung you forgot to note Wave that Samsung loudly pitched (at least in my country) as a high end devices and app enabled superphone with unbelievable screen.

This is how the strategy you talk about wrt transition to smartfones ough to be executed. Wave made place for long series of cheaper knock offs, only this time all of them were also made by Samsung. Bada is an example how Nokia should have handled Symbian^3. In fact they are doing this with cheaper ^3 phones. But it's too late I'm afraid.

saurabh

Two things of interest while I was surfing the web today

1) Meego Tablet Launched in Asia by Intel( Don't remember the place)- Source AllAboutSymbian.Com

2) Group of Nokia Shareholders have come up with Plan B to save Nokia from Elop

http://www.geek.com/articles/mobile/nokia-shareholders-have-a-microsoft-free-plan-b-20110215/

This I think is amazing news, out of all the death and gloom predictions finally someone has taken a firm action to counter Elop's Bloodlust, Now is there anyway all of us can support them and save Nokia -Symbian and take the path to MeeGo.

I seriously can't understand the fact on how can MeeGo Be killed by Elop calling the Intel CEO a night before 11 Feb?

Either the Investors know something the rest of the world does not or they all are loonies

Jonas Lind

Thanks for an interesting (and depressing) analysis. I think that you are right on most points. However, in my opinion you are slightly too pessimistic about the reaction from large corporate buyers. If they are locked up in corporate IT systems that have been painstakingly integrated with Symbian they would most likely continue to buy Symbian handsets until they have the integration with a new platform ready. That might be Blackberry, Android - or even WP7. This would probably give Nokia a year before they are kicked out. Of course this minor point will not change the big picture.

GJW

Thanks for the thorough analysis.
You say that they cannot come back with Symbian, and I agree, but Meego would still stand a chance, if they'd decided to come back with it after the partnership disaster.

You're one of the very few who point out the total loss of the e-series. Remember that they were doing very well compared with the n-series. And Nokia seems to have left them out of the picture completely. (Another proof that this partnership has NOT been well thought out.)

agoedde

Couple of quick comments:

The fact that Fujitsu just shipped a MeeGo netbook does not tell us much about the readiness of Nokia's MeeGo smartphone OS. The underlying software stack has been ready for a while - that is not contested. The netbook presumably ships with the MeeGo netbook UX, which saw public betas in 2010. The smartphone UX that Nokia was developing is a completelty different user interface, and we can draw precisely no conclusion from the shipment of one UX about the readniess of the other.

I'm not so sure your numbers regarding the volume of shipments are all that optimistic.
WinMo always sold to people who wanted a smartphone, and often specifically Exchange integration and mobile office viewers/editors.
Symbian often sells because of the feature list vs. price ratio, the Nokia brand, and, of course, operator promotions. I think if Nokia reduce the price enough, then they will still be able to sell to the normob coming into a phone shop based on this.
Additionally, with ASPs falling, Symbian will take another big bite out of Nokia's dumphone share this year.
They should easily hit their announced shipment numbers, and the numbers you posted here. I agree fully that they won't be able to do if profitably for all of 2011.

don_afrim@twitter

Tomi,
How is it possible that Nokia hired a completely inexperienced phone guy to run the show?

Stephen Elop comments on BGR:
1. "Our most important competitor is not Samsung, not RIM, not Apple, its Android and Google" - uumm.. excuse me, that's Microsofts most fierce competitor not Nokias!!! Nokia if they wanted could join Android today!!!! Does this guy still maybe think he's working for Microsoft??

2. "the final decision to partner with Microsoft was a day before the announcement on Feb. 11" - i don't believe it one bit! a few days earlier the VP of Google dropped the Twienner-bomb about the turkeys. He probably included the Android strategy to the Board and completely sabotaged it.

3. "Nokia (Ovi) Maps will be freely available to all the OEM's who will use Windows Phone.." excuse me, how much did Nokia pay for Navteq?? 6,7, or 8 BILLION!!!! and now he's including it for free on Windwos mobile.. is this guy insane??? Ovi maps was like one of the biggest sales advantages Nokia had over its competitors!!! Well erase that advantage since ALL phones will get it anyway!

Now since the announcement Nokia has lost $15BILLION in market cap!!

This guy will destroy Nokia and they will never come back! He's the biggest joke CEO i have ever seen.

I say out with him, cancel the agreement with M$, bring Meego immediately to market, like 5 different variants and push Symbian downward to feature phones and replace S40 with it.

Hantu13

Sorry to put a damper on all the exuberance about Meego, but the demo I saw by Intel the other day was not very impressive at all. Sure, a couple of the screens looked decent, but it in no way looked like a finished or nearly finished leading mobile OS.

As for the Fujitsu Meego notebook, please remember that this is a notebook- it has a massive battery and doesn't need the power efficiency of a modern smartphone- and it runs on the underpowered and energy hungry Atom chip that Intel has been trying to sell forever, not on ARM.

DId anyone see something about the Meego demo that made it look like a soon to arrive, innovative challenger to iOS, Android or even W7? I didn't...

Elop's strategy here is a risky one. Though, not sure he had many good alternatives. All the alternative strategies I've seen, including Tomi's here, are some variant on the "execute on a new OS and bring good products to market" theme. Nonetheless, there are few people who are better equipped to judge the readiness of a software platform than Elop. This was his core expertise at Microsoft and Macromedia.

It would be far better for Elop and Nokia if they were able to go to market with Meego. That he chose not to do it should tell you much about his professional, objective view on how ready and mature that project was.

Hantu13

Sorry to put a damper on all the exuberance about Meego, but the demo I saw by Intel the other day was not very impressive at all. Sure, a couple of the screens looked decent, but it in no way looked like a finished or nearly finished leading mobile OS.

As for the Fujitsu Meego notebook, please remember that this is a notebook- it has a massive battery and doesn't need the power efficiency of a modern smartphone- and it runs on the underpowered and energy hungry Atom chip that Intel has been trying to sell forever, not on ARM.

DId anyone see something about the Meego demo that made it look like a soon to arrive, innovative challenger to iOS, Android or even W7? I didn't...

Elop's strategy here is a risky one. Though, not sure he had many good alternatives. All the alternative strategies I've seen, including Tomi's here, are some variant on the "execute on a new OS and bring good products to market" theme. Nonetheless, there are few people who are better equipped to judge the readiness of a software platform than Elop. This was his core expertise at Microsoft and Macromedia.

It would be far better for Elop and Nokia if they were able to go to market with Meego. That he chose not to do it should tell you much about his professional, objective view on how ready and mature that project was.

P@

I believe that the sales for Symbian will be strongly linked to perception not by users but by mobile operators. If they continue subsidising Nokia phones then a lot of customers will not care (lots of clients never received any upgrade during the lifetime of their device).
So the question then becomes: Do mobile operators have interest in Windows phone compare to Apple/Android/RIM? If yes, they will make efforts to help Nokia in the transition period. If not, Nokia sales can be even worst!?

Another point is the fact that Nokia is going to release one device with Meego in 2011. Is there any sales number which would make Nokia think differently regarding Meego?
The N900 was hardly advertised but about 1 million device were sold (according to a guy from Nokia). That sounds still ok.
Something still confusing to me is the fact that they consider Meego as a testing platform but still they will put one device in the market (or maybe will be labelled dev-phone?) and how come that would be a testing platform if other company proposes Meego on an handset and that being a fully-finished handset and definitly not a testing version...

Steven Hoober

I'd like to see you deconstruct the infamous leaked memo again. You like to recant when you are wrong, and you said (I think very reasonably, other /smart/ columnists also tried to not quite claim it was real) that it was probably bogus. We have to assume it was real now, so what does it mean? I mean, lots of odd things about who their competitors are and nokia being bad at their jobs.

Might be interesting to combine with the official announcement and see what it means now. Or even, if it was a planned leak. Hmmm.

PJ

One reason why Stephen Elop left NSN untouched might be that he is not the CEO nor the Chairman of NSN. Regardless of the confusing joint venture booking.

Sander van der Wal

According to this analysis, the new Nokia should be called MicroNok ;-)

About the developer story, I do not believe that at least the commercial Symbian developers stayed out of loyalty, but because of the Qt promise, a migration path to the new Maemo OS with the added change of portability to other platforms. With Ovi Store getting traction people were making money too. This is a compelling proposition from the largest smartphone maker in the world.

Also, most, if not all developers already develop for iOS and/or Android. There's money in iOS. I know you do not think app programming is a worthwhile business for iOS, but that makes even less worthwhile for Symbian. Developers couldn't diversify after S80 and UIQ collapsed, but they certainly could after iOS opened shop, and lost of them did. So the idea that developer are going to leave is dated, they diversified already, two years ago. The idea that a platform owns developers is outdated. If Nokia and Microsoft want to own developers, they should offer a good cross platform solution (like Qt).

Another issue is tablets. We do not look at smartphone sales but at platform device sales. iOS in particular is now attractive because of iPad, but it was also attractive because of iPod touch. What makes iOS extra attractive that it is rather easy to use a single source with a couple of tests to create binaries for the two form factors. Much easier than targetting S60 and S80 with a single source, which was made almost impossible by duplicating all the high-level classes in the S60 and S80 layers. As later happened to Orbit and DirectUI, some people never learn.

Don McLean

Tomi,

I very much appreciate you efforts and the article was quite good reading. I noticed though some particular apsect which is missed in the perspective you've give us. That is how operators will react to Nosoft and what will be the effect of their reaction on Nokia sales in 2011/2012? What I read somewhere is Mr.Flop praising the WP7 as the most "operator-friendly". Nokia surely had good relations with operators (not in US, obviously) so how those two add to equation you've deduced in your blog?

Thank you

Don McLean

@ P@ | February 15, 2011 at 01:23 PM

"Something still confusing to me is the fact that they consider Meego as a testing platform but still they will put one device in the market"


I think they may have some legal obligations on those matters in their partnership with Intel. So they need some real device to get away from this. Can it be so?

christian maurice

Thanks for the analysis!!!

But your estimation for Nokia marketshare is optimistic for Q1. Elop said in the burning memo that Android is now the number 1 smartphone OS since the 3rd February. And I think like you it is the best scenario, it will be worse because they will not sell the 150 millions Symbian smartphone in two years. At best the Nokia marketshare will be in the low ten's but I think it will in single digit. At the moment Google, RIM and Samsung staff drink champagne. In MWC, no presentation of a new WP7 phone by the other partners!!! You said Microsoft gain but they anger all the other partners...

Samsung, LG, Sony Ericsson and RIM will be the winner and maybe Apple if they lauch an Iphone mini. Android and Bada will go up very high.

And the worse is maybe after how will go the integration between Microsoft and Nokia services. If the excution is not good, the launch and integration of Nokia services in WP7 ecosystem can be very slow. They took a big gamble...

Christian Maurice

Android is already 350 000 activation a day!!! Eric Schmidt at MWC!!!

bernardnapoleon

Nokia committed several mistakes already this past few years. I don't think they would like to do it again. I think that this is a good move for Nokia, as much as it hurts my feelings. Nokia is struggling with release dates for Symbian OS, and spending a lot of money just to put pinch zooming, kinetic scrolling, etc on their devices.

Microsoft is the biggest winner here, because of SEARCH. let's say that in 2012 there would be 450 Millions smartphones, according to Morgan Stanley, some 11.5% will be under WP7, which would use Bing. that would bring and additional 51 Millions people to Bing, of course minus the one who is already using bing, and the ones who will switch the default search engine to Google. Still that's still a big number. remember that 1% in search equals $1 Billion in market cap.

So here I am thinking, would Nokia get cuts on revenue generated from searches originating from Nokia Windows Phones? Because if this is the case Microsoft really has a proposition here.

But I really do wish that Symbian would be just pushed down to feature phone level, then Nokia would kill S40. considering that prices of hardware gradually falls, it's possible to produce a Symbian "dumbphone" under $100 by the end of the year.

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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