The Nokia CEO 'Burning Platform' memo at Engadget, doesn't ring true to my ears..

Engadget has published the full text of what it claims is a memo by Nokia's new CEO Stephen Elop. The memo is entitled the 'burning platform' memo. It seems to foreshadow a shift in Nokia smartphone strategy but is not clearly identifying what that shift would be. It is a good read, and well written, with lots of good facts in it. Its general sentiment, to rally troops, seems about right. I think, that to most industry-watchers, it seems very credible, as it could have been written by Nokia's new CEO.

UPDATE 11 February - Stephen Elop has confirmed today that the memo was real. This whole blog posting is now pointless, I was wrong. I will of course leave it here if anyone would like to come read it (and its comments). But please recognise - I am admitting I was totally wrong about it. For those who want to see what my view is of the new Nokia Microsoft alliance, please read: Wow this is good for Microsoft.

I don't think so. I think it is a hoax, but honestly, I do not know Stephen Elop, I have never met him, and I certainly have not heard one way or another, from my Nokia friends and colleagues, whether that memo is actually true. (please read the memo first, at Engadget)

Here is why it doesn't ring true to me. There are several astonishing errors and also 'obvious' missing pieces, that I cannot imagine Nokia's new CEO 'not having heard' from most of his meetings with most of his staff. I think, it reads more like a US analyst, who is trying to influence the discussion, who knows much of the Nokia story, but not the whole story. Here is where I think there are very glaring omissions or faults.

First the statement about Apple owning 61% of the 'over 300 dollar phone' segment is patently wrong, and Nokia is nothing if not meticulous about market shares and they buy every report and their competitor analysis department could not have suggested this kind of number. This to me, is an Apple-friendly analysis, based on US market share, not globally. Let me explain why. Apple sold about 47 million smartphones in 2010. RIM ie Blackberry has an average sales price of over 300 dollars, about half of its smartphones sell in that price range (over 300 dollar phones). Lets call it 23 million. Then we have HTC and Samsung, both sold about 25 million smartphones - the whole Samsung Galaxy series is in that price range (Samsung also sold 5 million cheap bada smartphones in 2010) and I'd say most HTC phones are in the price range. Lets call it 35 million combined from Samsung and HTC to play safe. Then what of Nokia? It sold 5 million S^3 phones in just one quarter, those were all 300 dollar or more phones (plus many more N97s and premium E-Series phones as well in the quarter). Again, if we play it safe and say of Nokia's 100 million smartphones, only 20 million were in this price point, we already have a combined global market of 125 million phones that cost over 300 dollars. And Apple's 47 million would be 38% of that. It will be even less, after we add premium cost Motorolas, SonyEricssons, and various other premium phones like the new ones from Sharp etc. No, this number does not ring right. I can believe, that an American analyst would be inclined to believe that as a 'fact' that Apple has 61% of the premium phone market, but Nokia knows this far better, and Nokia internal staff know the numbers better, they would not believe their new CEO if he suddenly says Apple is that big. And they have the corporate licenses to big handset analysis reports by Gartner, IDC, etc that all echo the same story. That Stephen Elop would start his email with such a number, that his own competitor analysis department would scream and kick and yell that it is totally off, does not seem right to me. But maybe its an isolated error. Lets read on.

On the low price phones, the memo mentions MediaTek but it does not mention any of the low-cost handset makers by name? The memo dares to mention Apple and Google, but now the CEO seemingly doesn't dare to mention Chinese brands like ZTE, Huawei, G'Five etc? That doesn't seem right.

While we are on competitors, Nokia's real competitor is Samsung (not Apple) and all at Nokia HQ know this. Samsung has recently launched its own OS bada (the most successful new OS launch in history, better than Google's Android or Apple's iPhone in its first 6 months) and Samsung is very successful in the high end with Galaxy smartphones and - most relevantly - Samsung has passed Nokia in the dumbphones market of Europe and now gaining in Asia, including China. He mentions Apple and Google but ignores the real (and currently only) threat to Nokia's hegemony, Samsung. This to me doesn't sound like the CEO has understood his primary competitor or the main market or how his primary competitor is moving into the smartphones space. I cannot imagine that the real Stephen Elop was blind to Samsung, and I cannot imagine if he talks of competition, that he would not point out how hungrily Samsung is eating into Nokia's markets globally. This doesn't ring right to me.

Then he supposedly writes "While competitors poured flames on our market share, what happened at Nokia? We fell behind, we missed big trends, and we lost time." This again smacks of ill-informed US based views of Nokia. "..we missed big trends" (?) WHAT? Excuse me? I can accept, definitely, that Nokia has recently been executing poorly, and its early steps in new areas have been clumsy. But 'missed' big trends? Which trend has Nokia missed. Name even ONE! Touch screens? Before iPhone! Internet phones? Nokia did the world's first. Consumer smartphones? Nokia invented that. Gaming phones? Nokia had years before the iPhone ever heard of Angry Birds. An app store? Nokia followed this trend from Japan five years before Apple launched its first app store. A developer community? Nokia has had it for more than a decade. Apps? Nokia has a whole unit that sells apps and services. Maps? Nokia bundles those on the phones. Money? Nokia launched Nokia Money long ago. Dual SIM phones, Nokia did that years ago. What trend is it that Nokia has supposedly missed. MISSED?

I can accept that Nokia's touch screen interface is not the most elegant and its user interface is currently not as good as rivals. That is not 'missing big trends'. The are perhaps slow in capitalizing on the big trands. That is fair. I really can't see him saying this. This is a typical US analyst view who don't know about Nokia's global products and its years of innovations. Stephen Elop could easily say, "we were not capitalizing on our innovations" or something like that, but seriously, he has been on a deep fast fact-finding mission to understand the company he is running. There is no way, Stephen Elop could be under any misconception about where the big trends are, and when Nokia first moved to enter those trends. I cannot believe he would say this in a memo to staff. This to me, sounds like a US analyst writing what he wishes Nokia would say, from a US viewpoint.

The supposed CEO memo continues "At that time, we thought we were making the right decisions; but, with the benefit of hindsight, we now find ourselves years behind." Again, 'years behind'. Years? On what? I could see, that last summer, when the N8 was again delayed, and Symbian S^3 had not shipped, that perhaps, perhaps a Nokia CEO could say, they were 'years' behind. But not today. Ovi store is the second best-performing handset maker app store behind only Apple's App Store. Nokia is years AHEAD of most of its rivals from RIM's app store to Microsoft's. Symbian S^3 sold on 5 million handsets, on only 3 Nokia models, vs Microsoft's brand new and fresh 'from the ground up' OS, Phone 7, which on about a dozen phone models from several manufacturers, shipped 1.5 million units in the same period.

Meanwhile Google talks of Google Money (Nokia Money years ahead). Apple is rumored to introduce Near Field ability to hits handsets (Nokia years ahead). I can see that the CEO would want to motivate his staff to work harder, and I totally agree that Nokia is currently under-performing. It is executing poorly. But this is totally the wrong message from the CEO, the facts he sees and hears, cannot support this type of claim. If anything, after Nokia bought full control of Symbian, Symbian has been climbing back into the game. It is not as user-friendly as Android or iPhone OS, but it doesn't need to be either - for that Nokia is bringing MeeGo and has very good 'prototype' experience from the N900 that ran Maemo. Nokia can definitely create a very competitive and utterly modern OS. Symbian is clearly stated to be the legacy OS, to power increasingly lower cost smartphones, and is designed to operate on modest power phones (CPUs and memory). Nokia is far ahead of Android or Microsoft Phone 7 or Apple iOS, in specifically having Symbian prepared for low-cost phones, something bada at Samsung is also designed for. To my mind, Nokia's CEO would be mentioning this, not saying they are years behind.

What is more, Nokia invested heavily in designing a migration path for its two operating systems, to help developers manage that transition. That is built around Qt and it is a centerpiece to Nokia's smartphone strategy. Qt is not mentioned in the whole memo? Why? He mentions Apple or iPhone four times and Google or Android four times but no mention at all of Qt? This again, seems to me like it was written by someone who studies Nokia but isn't fully aware of it. I cannot imagine, after all the effort Nokia does in all its communications to promote Qt as critical to the two OS platforms it controls, that it would not even be mentioned here. And it is definitely leadership - Microsoft decided it was too complex and costly to help its developers migrate from Windows Mobile to Phone 7 and just left the developers adrift. They now are witnessing the effects of that. And I cannot - cannot imagine - that Nokia's CEO could think, that this Qt strategy was somehow wrong, now? When we are mere months from the first MeeGo devices? This is the ultimate care of an existing eco-system. To go through the extra effort, time and money, to build a migration path - for Nokia's developer community! If the CEO talks of competitors, and 'falling behind' and ecosystems, why the stunning silence about Qt? What would be seen as the ultimate betrayal of Nokia's loyal developers would be for Nokia to abandon Qt and MeeGo now, mere months before the first phones? I cannot see Nokia CEO making this strange memo, without acknowledging Qt. It doesn't ring right to my ears.

Now what really hit me the first time I read this memo, that made me 'decide' it cannot be right, is the line in it that reads "Android came on the scene just over 2 years ago, and this week they took our leadership position in smartphone volumes." This sentence refers to the widely-reported Canalys numbers about Android OS overtaking Symbian in Q4 of 2010. But right after it was released, many analysts have said the numbers don't add up! It is a math error! You don't build corporate strategy on someone's math error haha. Canalys have jumped the gun, it has not happened that Android would be bigger than Symbian (that is likely to happen, now in 2011, and this is something Elop would be very wise to warn his staff, but not claim it had happened). Right now, IDC for example very explicitly on Monday said that Nokia is still ahead of Android. The official numbers from Google itself on Android, do not support Canalys's claim! I cannot believe, that Nokia's CEO would take a number which is ridiculed by the industry (and must be against every other measure Nokia tracks internally) and puts it in the memo! I can see it from a US based tech analyst, who is not that familiar with the issue. Since the Canalys number had more than 400 press mentions all the way from CNN and CNBC and Bloomberg on down - it must be right. But Nokia CEO would know fully well that there are four analyst houses and that this one number is utterly at odds with what all others report on the industry. He would not take it as the truth, where all other evidence suggests the opposite. It would not be believed by anyone in the organization (but would be easily believed by those who are not very familiar with the industry, especially US analysts, who have heard earlier - correctly - that Android had overtaken Apple and RIM). This is the biggest glaring error in the memo to my mind, I cannot see that Nokia's CEO would give any credence to that reported market share. Especially not, when its already been discredited by other sources Nokia prefers to use, like IDC.

Then a weird statement. The supposed memo states "We thought MeeGo would be a platform for winning high-end smartphones. However, at this rate, by the end of 2011, we might have only one MeeGo product in the market." Its early February. If the CEO wanted, he could easily accelerate MeeGo development and give it resources and bring more devices to the market, if that is what he needs. I think this is now an analyst 'speaking' who projects from recent delays in N8 and E7, and expresses a warning about possible MeeGo delays. It really doesn't seem like the CEO would make this kind of 'forecast'? I could see him 'committing' to some number or asking his team to help ensure they have x models this year, but for the memo to have this kind of 'forecast' seems totally at odds with what I would imagine any CEO saying about his company?

The truth is, that MeeGo is new. It is the amalgamation of Nokia's Linux based open source new smarthone OS project, Maemo (that powered N900) and Intel's similar project. The strategic decision to join with Intel is a masterstroke by Nokia, it brought new partners into the new Maemo/MeeGo ecosystem and of course, because of this there would be no more Maemo devices, and MeeGo would need to be managed together with Intel. What is far more important is a good OS, than having tons of devices on the OS (remembering that the 'old' Symbian in its newest edition S^3 outsells the brand new Microsoft Phone 7 by more than 3 to 1). Again, I cannot imagine that the new CEO of Nokia would not have studied MeeGo carefully and know this. Most Nokia staff know this. Therefore there is no point at all in saying it is now somehow 'in jeopardy' or 'endangered' or 'severely delayed'. I can believe that Nokia's new CEO would want MeeGo devices this year, but for him to suddenly say he projects only one device - when we are in February, this doesn't seem right to me.

And on that point - why no mention at all of Intel, Nokia's partner in MeeGo? Or no mention at all of NTT DoCoMo, Nokia's biggest remaining partner in Symbian. How can it be, that Symbian can power phones for the world's most advanced mobile phone market, Japan, years ahead of every other market - and is the OS of preference by NTT DoCoMo the worlds' most innovative and inventive mobile industry company, and at the same time that same Symbian is obsolete and somehow 'years behind' the competition. I again don't see Nokia's new CEO being somehow so ill-informed about key strategic assets - and key strategic allies - especially in a memo where he talks about ecosystems and partners.

Then the funniest error in the supposed memo, is something only a US based writer would dare to write with a straight face, and no Nokia exec would accept - "(Symbian) ...has proven to be non-competitive in leading markets like North America." Haha. Yes, Symbian is failing in North America. But Nokia do global analysis of all of their markets. They know fully well, fully well, that the world's most advanced market for phones is Japan. Then comes South Korea. Then come the other leading Asian 'Tiger' economies like Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan etc - here we have far more than 50% smartphone penetration rates etc. After that comes Western Europe, ahead of the North American market. There is no way, a Nokia exec will say with a straight face that North America is a 'leading market' in phones - knowing how well they do, how backwards the US carriers (mobile operators) are in stiffling that market.

To me the memo is a well-written hoax, which has a few critical 'obvious' errors. Here for example, if the memo had read something like 'proven non-competitive in significant markets like North America' or in 'important' markets like North America or 'growing' markets or something like that. But for anyone to suggest North America is a leading market in mobile phones, this is something laughed at by all major analysts. It is a mid-range market, slightly behind Western Europe, on par with the Middle East and slightly ahead of Easter Europe..

On the Symbian paragraph the memo says "if we continue like before, we will get further and further behind" and again, this is something that the US based myths do perpetuate, but the facts are strictly the opposite. Symbian based Nokia phones outsold its two biggest rivals, all Apple iPhones and all RIM Blackberries, combined. Yes, the CEO could have written that rivals are starting to catch up to Nokia, but just in smartphones, Nokia is more than twice as big as its nearest rival. (and is still profitable!) You want to give this 'problem' to Toyota? To Coca Cola? To Boeing? Anyone in almost any other major industry would desperately love to have this 'problem' of being that huge, that you are twice as big as your nearest rival. I cannot imagine the Nokia CEO would make such a blatant error in his memo, suggesting Nokia is not far ahead. Yes, the rivals are catching up, but Nokia is not behind! Not falling 'further' behind. And definitely not falling 'further and further' behind. This could only have been written by a US based analyst who mistakes US market share for global market share. Nokia HQ staff know fully well that the world outside of USA is 3 times bigger in smartphones (and 8 times bigger in dumbphones).

Lastly, the direct oppostite finding. When the CEO says Symbian has proven non-competitive in 'leading markets like North America' - when we go to the world's leading market, Japan - Symbian is supremely competitive there! The exact opposite is the truth, but few analysts know the Japanese market. Nokia knows, and Nokia's Symbian team knows very intimately, because NTT DoCoMo, Japan's biggest mobile operator/carrier with half the market there, is a Symbian partner. I can see how a US based analyst would think Symbian is failing in 'leading markets' but I know that the Symbian team inside Nokia know the facts, that Symbian is succeeding in the market with by far the most advanced phones and by far the most demanding customers, used by the operator/carrier that is by far the most demanding. The Nokia CEO could not have missed this fact, when talking to any Symbian people at Nokia.

Lets move on, the memo mentions how fast the "Chinese OEM's" are - where all Chinese makers combined produce less phones than Nokia alone - but doesn't mention Samsung - which is by most industry analysts who specialize in Asian phones - far faster than the Chinese - and who are closing in on Nokia's market share (leading it in some markets already). This again, doesn't sound like it was written by a real Nokia CEO. There is speed in innovation, and then there is South Korean speed, which is legendary. He does mention the speed, yet he somehow ignores the chance to motivate his staff, that Samsung is using its world-record speed to catch up on Nokia (and has now in public even stated that its goal now is to become number 1. This memo really doesn't sound right. The theme - lets compete harder - makes sense but the example, Chinese OEMs without names, and ignoring Samsung, this doesn't seem right to me).

Then the memo has a paragraph on ecosystems. I much agree with that paragraph. But, if this was Nokia's CEO, I cannot see that he'd be able to include this glaring contradiction with what he wrote just a little bit earlier. The ecosystem includes not just hardware and software but "developers, applications, ecommerce, advertising, search, social applications, location-based services, unified communications and many other things." Yes. What was that? Developers? And previously in the memo Nokia was supposedly not innovating and years behind. Nokia's developers were recruited way back in the previous century! Applications? Nokia has a software unit that reports quarterly. Ecommerce, fine. Advertising? Nokia has bought two advertising companies to build its ad platform years before Apple or Google bought their first mobile ad platforms. Search, fine. Social applications, fine. Location-based services? What is Ovi maps for goodness sakes, Nokia was the first to offer maps totally free. And so forth. Either Nokia "thought it was making the right choices but has fallen years behind" or else this chapter about the ecosystems is not true, but both cannot be true. They are at a contradition! And again, a brand new CEO, in a memo to energize his company, cannot possibly make this basic level of error? This does not sound right to me.

While on ecosystems.. where is Ovi? Again if the new CEO emphasizes the need for an ecosystem, surely Ovi should at least be acknowledged in the memo? The world's second-biggest app store by a handset maker? Far ahead of most rivals? And all the steps Nokia has done to expand this ecosystem, not just apps but also services and content and maps and communities etc.

And then on customer preference, again I agree with the sentiment, and have written on this blog that Nokia loyalty and customer preferences are in decline, and that is very bad for Nokia. But this paragraph? "(Nokia loyalty is) ...also down in the other markets, which are traditionally our strongholds: Russia, Germany, Indonesia, UAE..." 

????

Russia. Yes. Germany. Yes. Indonesia. Yes. UAE? WHAT? Yes, I love Abu Dhabi and Dubai, but come on? Where is Nokia's single most important market? CHINA? China alone adds a whole new UAE every single month in new mobile phone subscribers. Where is India, Nokia's second most important market? India now adds not one, but TWO whole new UAE's every month! There is no way, no effing way, that Nokia CEO would write a sentence about Nokia's 'traditional stronghold' markets and ignore China and India, while including the United Arab Emirates. Wrong, Mr Fake Elop. This is not a Nokia CEO writing.

Note that the facts actually support the thesis - Nokia has been bleeding markets share in China and in India! So if that is Elop's message, he would most definitely include China and India in the memo! China houses the world's biggest phone factory for goodness sakes (a Nokia facility). There is no way, no no way, that Elop mentions the Arab Emirates, but forgets both China and India, the two biggest markets in the world of mobile telecoms.

Now, as to the sentiment, that Nokia is in trouble - yes, that Nokia faces huge changes, yes, that Nokia needs to embrace change, yes. Yes, the sentiment is right. But the statements in that memo do not ring true to my ears.

I think we'll know for sure on February 11th. If Stephen Elop's strategy presentation echoes many of the themes in this memo, then I will be clearly wrong. I doubt it. I do believe that his strategy view will be in many ways at odds with this memo. I do think that Nokia is very committed to Symbian, MeeGo and through Qt and Ovi is well along in achieving a long-term sustainable ecosystem leadership advantage, using its partners like Intel and NTT DoCoMo. I believe these will be clearly stated in Elop's strategy. There are lots of areas where Nokia is struggling (as I wrote in my blog last week giving my recommendations) but the platform for Nokia is not burning and definitely, now is not the time to jump off Symbian and MeeGo to Android or Phone 7. Yes, the CEO needs to motivate his team and company, but I do not believe this was a real memo from Stephen Elop. One or two of the above mistakes I could see in it, not this list of errors. No way would Nokia's CEO be so deluded from the facts.

(But obviously, lets see. Worst case, it is proven to be real, he really believes all that, and Nokia is led by a delusional psycopath who willingly suspends reality. Imagine if Microsoft had thrown in the towel when it had the world's biggest PC operating system! Imagine if Blueray had stopped fighting for the market when it was leading. This is silly)

Lets see if we get any official confirmation or denial of this memo. I do honestly believe, it cannot be true, that it would seem like the CEO didn't understand his own company, its markets, its products, and would not be believed by his own staff if he circulated this memo with this wording. But hey, I'm an outsider looking in, wouldn't be the first time a CEO had misunderstood his company haha..

ADDENDUM -  We have over 50 comments on the blog. I am writing now to clarify. I thought I was perfectly clear in the above - but let me be as clear as I can - I TOTALLY - TOTALLY agree - AGREE with the SENTIMENT of this supposed memo. Do not write comments saying 'Tomi you are delusional' etc. I TOTALLY AGREE with the main themes that this memo expresses. All of those - ALL OF THEM are valid concerns for the new CEO - and I HAVE MYSELF EXPRESSED MOST OF THEM ON THIS BLOG BEFORE. I am NOT SAYING that Nokia is 'not in trouble'. I am ONLY saying, that when I read that article on Engadget, and many of my Twitter followers asked me for my opinion, I said I don't think that is genuine, that I honestly think it is a hoax - because of some detail errors in it. It is possible that this is an inaccurate representation of Stephen Elop's statements, speeches, blogs, memos whatever. If so - if it is not 100% verbatim exactly from beginning to end exactly as Elop wrote it (or spoke it) - then I am right. That is my only point. I feel like there is some fraudulent person who has manufactured a well-written story, that seems credible to be from Stephen Elop to his staff. It apparently has borrowed several direct phrases from other items he's said or written.

The point is that I - Tomi Ahonen - TOTALLY AGREE with all major sentiments in this supposed memo. I am not in denial about any of the issues reported in it, as being problems with Nokia. I am finding astounding faults in how it is written - on specific items that to me, are not professional, and to me, could not have been expressed as they are written. That is why I feel this is a hoax. I have never said in this blog that the main points of that supposed memo are not true. I AGREE with the memo, ok? I just believe, that a Nokia CEO would not be making these basic errors in basic facts. Are we clear now? Tomi fully agrees with the 'sentiment' of that memo. Not partly agrees, fully agrees! Ok?

UPDATE - I just read a brilliant comment by Terence Eden @edent on Twitter who said that this might be taken out of context. If this was part of a longer memo, where Stephen Elop said first "Others are saying this about us" - then yes, very clearly, this could be in a memo, but then Stephen Elop would know - and his employees would also know, that those statements are not reality. That would be fine, and then, Engadget would have been publishing deliberately or accidentially a partial excerpt that expressly communicates the opposite of what was intended.

MORE - I have written a companion volume to this blog, explaining to those who might not immediately 'get it' why Nokia's current smartphone OS strategy (Symbian and MeeGo with Ovi and Qt) is the best for Nokia and any change to the OS now in 2011 would be tantamout to corporate suicide. The blog article is here Why Nokia OS Strategy is Right for Nokia.

EVEN MORE - and for those visitors who are interested in the overall market shares and the major players in the smartphone industry, as the final numbers were reported earlier today, I have just done my final analysis of all the numbers, market shares, major manufacturers, operating systems, by Q4 and for full year 2010, at this analysis: Smartphone Bloodbath 2010: Now Final Numbers.

Comments

[Billy]

Subtle xenophobia in your post.... Haters gotta hate!

[Leejjon]

I tried to find out on how to make JavaMe applications on Symbian but the more I look into it the more I see people saying Symbian is dead/dying.

This hoax doesn't really helps to motivate people to develop for Symbian either. It's like a huge group of people is trying to make it look dead. And Nokia isn't doing much effort on denying that this is true.

[Don McLean]

I find it interesting that lots of commenters see Nokia' problem is in the (wrong) platform strategy. While some others (whom I'd rather agree with) pointing out that it's poor execution and bureaucracy / corporate games.

Another point is that surrendering to (lets say) WP7 for North American market is not enough for Nokia. Because huge part of Nokia problem at this market is operators, and operators won't suddenly "forget" Nokia just because they (lets say) jumped on another bandwagon.

[Ajit Jaokar]

Hi Tomi
Here are my thoughts (cross posted from OpenGardens) original source including links at http://www.opengardensblog.futuretext.com/archives/2011/02/nokias-problems-and-inq-facebook-phone-on-android.html

In response to the Nokia memo, I am glad that finally reality seems to have dawned at Nokia .

While Tomi Ahonen and others have launched a passionate denial/ contradiction of the ideas in the memo, the reality is very simple ..

I do not mind if the memo is genuine, a blog, a rumour or a combination thereof.

The point is: The memo (if you can call it that ..) does encapsulate the problem .. which is

a) Lack of ecosystem management and dominance.

Google orchestrates the Android ecosystem.

Apple owns the iPhone ecosystem.

Nokia sells very large number of devices but it is no longer enough to JUST sell a large number of devices

What ecosystem does Nokia manage/dominate?

If not, can it be called a market leader?

b) The rate of change

c) Taking emerging markets for granted

So, related to above, the questions then become:

a) Can Nokia develop and dominate an ecosystem? and / or leverage existing ecosystems

b) Forget iPhone, consider Samsung which has (so far) managed the rate of change much better. Someone called it a ‘fast follower’. No matter what we call Samsung, they are managing to leverage mindshare

c) Refusal to acknowlegde the new manufacturers in India and China and hoping that these markets will be loyal for ever i.e. ignoring spice mobilility micromax, Olive telecom and others.

Now consider that today INQ announced the facebook phone .. on ADROID

lets read the back story behind this ..and the irony of a facebook phone on Google’s Android .. then think of the rate of change ..

I remember going to a Nokia booth at MWC last year and a woman showing me an idea of new Nokia services.

It was a ‘green’ service for travellers(reducing carbon footprint). As someone who travels extensively and a heavy user of mobile devices, in theory, I am an ideal target user of the service

But to get it, I had to get a Nokia id and a nokia phone.

I told her that there are OTHER ways to get that service and I added that as a traveller the most imp site for me is time and date but she rattled on on a pre scripted manner about how great this new green service was if ONLY I switched to Nokia ..

That’s basically completely missing the point(that I, as a customer have an option and that the reducing carbon footprint service can be obtained from many different ways)

And in my view, apps are a long tail service .. and most customers are now defining what they want in a much more granular way

Now this bring us to facebook phone ..

when I talked of mobile web 2.0 I often said that it should be called ‘web mobile 2.0′ i.e. web drives the agenda

Thats why facebook phone is more important.

Its the service which customers want ..

So, finally glad that someone(at the top) in Nokia has woken up to a new reality that the dynamics of the market itself have changed completely! and old style strategies and approaches will not work

In April 2008, I posted a blog based on a talk called The ASUS effect : Mobile innovation triggered by open source, long tail devices and a shift in the device value chain

That has been highly prophetic .. although I framed it in context of Linux and not android .. the principles are the same ..

Open source introduces a MUCH higher rate of change .. that explains Android success and Facebook phone on Android .. and on the other hand we have the iPhone

Think about it: A young person(a traditional Nokia demographic) goes to a phone shop

They have two choices – a Nokia phone OR a Facebook Android phone

Which will they choose?

Will it matter that its an Android phone? Its the same analogy with me at the MWC Nokia booth ..

In any case, lets wait and see what happens now ..

[flex]

bright brillant post. well done.

[Arild]

@Ajit Jaokar

> Open source introduces a MUCH higher rate of change .. that explains Android

Well, Android is not open source in the collaborative way that it gets a lot of input from 1000s of coders during development. Google paid coders prepare a release and once it is done they dump the source, which of course people can then do what they want with. But the cutting edge stuff that get put into Galaxy S or Nexus S or Xperia 10 is developed behind closed doors before having further features added behind some other closed doors. See http://www.wired.com/epicenter/2010/10/is-android-open/ for example for a discussion.

Hence the speed in Android development (apart from modders on XDA which represent a minority of sales)

I think the key here is Rubin's comment that there are fewer people coding Android than people expect.. where I saw that Nokia has 5,000 people working on Symbian just to "improve" it... crazy, too much overhead for communicating betwen staff to get anything done.

[denial]

First:
Congratulations TOMI, your blog broke the news barrier:
http://www.mtv3.fi/
have not checked if this is cited by others yet or not.

Second:
There is nowhere real proof that this is not fake. Sure it has been in all major media. and in my morning newspaper. Still no comment from Nokia. Even in quote to your blog, press is not able to get facts on the table.

Third:
Everyone can judge if Nokia is way off or not with their products:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jcHYZsbrK8A

If you look at that it looks straighforward to make the killer product... whatever is the OS that allows to combine best of both...

Fourth:
Its clear Nokia can improve and shall

[Fix the browser]

To previous comment... and to Nokia... fixing just the browser would do good...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wUmCOu8qS4&feature=fvw

and then the surroundings ovi, etc.

[Ajit Jaokar]

@Arild yes not all of Android is open source. however, the rate of change argument applies still ie no longer do we have 18 month handset cycles rather we have devices coming in months after a specific android release. thats what I mean rgds Ajit

[hoax or not?]

@denial

Tomis blog spreading:

http://www.google.fi/search?hl=fi&rlz=1T4HPEA_fiFI346FI347&q=elop+hoax+nokia&aq=f&aqi=&aql=&oq=

[Mirmit]

It seem at the end the memo is real - Nokia's inside sources from outsid eof Finland. However, itcan be read in multiple way, hence all the buzz (noise?) around it.

Nokia looking at building or joining an ecosystem is a good thing. In fact they already have one wich is far from being negligeable. What about WebOS community nowaday?

But thinking Nokia could dump its OSes would refrain any current Nokia's ecosystem member to continue with them, as they would have just pull the carpet under their feet. I would say it would be a pretty dangerous move.

Nokia changing sytrategy by a 180° move would require they are able to feed the pipe with new devices with the new OS from now. Otherwise, who would follow them on a announced to be defunct OS in the mean time. It take from 9 (for Koreans) to 36 months to make a new phone. I know using WP7 is more or less just about putting some plastic around a Qualcomm Chipset, but even do it take time.

Nokia changing strategy would require to have it almost complete in order to avoid any gap.

One option would be to embrace one platform to address the US market, but I'm not even sure it would help, as US seem very reluctant to Nokia's products. This approach to have one (or few) out of range device has already being played by Nokia when they launched a UIQ device in Mainland China market - but it didn't end up anywhere.

The main problem in Nokia is about execution and I guess it where the change need to be applied, but they have today the basic elemnts they can build on. They need to complete MeeGo - still a long journey - and really clean up their Symbian middleware and applications. I cannot belive a system running at 600MHz is almost as slow as the Psion Series 5 running an older iteration of the system on a 18 Mhz processor.

[Mirmit]

Just to add something about the reality of this post. It can be found on internal's Nokia blog. The question if it's stephen Elop who write it is another story.

[Mirmit]

@Ajit Jaokar: On Nokia booth you were asked to switch to a Nokia phone to being able to use the service? It's fair game. I get a lot of mail saying to me: look we have this supperbe application to compliment our great product/service/whatever. You can download it to your iPhone. But I don't own an iPhone, so I have no capabilities to enjoyed what they are offering me. It's the same storry. And the conclusion would be - as Tomi say - mobile web service or multiplatform support.

[rfb]

I think the memo is widely optimistic if anything. There is no way that Nokia can compete with Asian manufacturers (eg HTC). There is no way Nokia can compete with US semiconductor houses (eg Qualcomm). There is no way Nokia can compete with US software (eg Apple, Google, Microsoft). This leaves a marketing and distribution business. That type of business can be highly profitable since it doesn't require large capital investments but it leaves Nokia a shell of its former self. And the US market is ruled out because the phones are mostly distributed by carriers here.

[sincey]

since you've had time to reflect is your opinion still of the same?
and what do you think is in store later in London?

[speg]

You have drunken way too much Nokia-aid.

You're doing exactly what you accuser Elop of doing and can't tell the forest from the trees.

Nokia is in a downward spiral, and MeeGo is NOT the answer.

[Jonas Lind]

How about this speculation:

Ethnocentric, US-centric, narrow-minded analyst with a need to push his own agenda = Elop?

[zugu]

And now it's official. WP7 will be Nokia's primary smartphone platform.

Waiting for mea culpa.

[Tomi T Ahonen]

To all in this thread

Stephen Elop has confirmed that the memo was real. I was wrong. I apologize for the hysteria. Also - obviously - as I felt it would be madness to believe some of the items he said - and he said them - I also do think he does not understand the company he is running, and is making a monsterously bad move. But there is no point in discussing it here in this thread. This thread is now formally dead - I was wrong - and if any of you would like to write about the Microsoft and Nokia partnership etc, there is a blog posting about that, feel free to join me there with comments.

Thank you to all who posted comments

Tomi Ahonen :-)

[Richard Peters]

Not only is the email genuine but Stephen Elop has admitted he said it.

[Acekard 2i]

Acekard 2i

[Marion24Munoz]

The personal loans are important for guys, which are willing to organize their company. In fact, this is not hard to receive a car loan.

[refurbished notebooks]

We too, are standing on a "burning platform," and we must decide how we are going to change our behaviour," writes Elop, before outlining how Nokia's business is under attack at the high-end from Apple, at the mid-range from Android, and at the low-end by Chinese manufacturers.
http://www.delld610.com/

[evden eve nakliyat]

. That includes the smartphone operating system decisions, the app store, the partners, the ecosystem, and the handset portfolio for Nokia smartphones.

[cheap jordans]

This is a good blog. Keep up all the work. I too love blogging and expressing my opinions.