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« An 8 Segment Model to Analyze Smartphone Market, Consumers and Handsets | Main | Good call Apple, to give free cases and allow total refunds on returns to Sept 30 »

July 15, 2010

Comments

Murat

"and Symbians rule the world."

Come on now, unless you mean the developing world

Tomi T Ahonen

Murat, come on...

Outside of the USA, Nokia has over 50% of all smartphones sold. And then there are even more Symbian phones from Samsung, SonyEricsson, almost all the Japanese makers etc..

So Europe? Symbian is as big as iPhone and RIM and Microsoft combined.

Advanced Asia excluding Japan? Symbian is as big as iPhone and RIM and Microsoft combined.

Japan - Symbian is as big as iPhone and RIM and Microsoft combined.

Your point was what, exactly?

The only market where Nokia and Symbian are not dominating, is North America, and that is where the carriers exclude most of Nokia's models and won't subsidise them. Yeah, your point being?

Just because people 'desire' Ferraris does not mean that Toyota isn't selling mountains more than Ferrari..

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Murat

My point is you don't need to have marketshare to rule the world, I just think the current situation proves that. This whole thing is far more deep reaching than marketshare.

The Trouble is doesn't Apple iPhone(Ferrari) make loads more money than Nokia (Toyota)?

Manu

@Tomi : - If you can make two quick predictions:

- Do you anticipate Samsung achieving their monstrous smartphone targets for this year ?

- Do you see same %growth of Android till end of current financial year ? Or do you want to be more specific predicting it quarter wise ?

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Murat and Manu

Murat - good point, but you know what the 'smartphone bloodbath' is all about - it is ONLY about market share. The profit does not matter, for the market share. Market share matters for developers and the eco-system. Apple's market share has peaked. The profit of Apple matters to its investors and you've been here plenty of times before to know this is not an investor site, we don't care who makes the MOST profits, we want any major player to make SOME profits to stay in business (ie not like say Motorola or Palm who were unable to make profits). Beyond just making profits, who makes most does not matter to the 'bloodbath' analysis. You know that, why keep bringing it up every quarter?

Manu - good questions. My quick gut feeling. First the easier one is Android. This iPhone 4 could have stalled the Android invasion if the phone was more radical to the rest of the world (remember, it impressed Americans far more than the rest of the world, who were quite underwhelmed by 'second camera' haha and 5 megapixels with LED flash etc). And now the death grip hits Apple's best quarter ie Q3 when it should really be selling monster amounts to put a dent into that lead that Androids built in Q2 in the world market (selling almost twice the amount of Android phones as Apple sells iPhones).

So the Android forecast is reasonably easy, yes I think it will keep growing - most of all because many Android makers have only now in Q2 released their main phones or are doing it in Q3. Phones like say the Galaxy series by Samsung. And we stil have several major players whose main Android offering has not been seen, like Dell. And LG has only very recently gotten their Android family onto the markets. So just by the expansion of the 'army' to its 'full strength' - we have not seen the full might of Android yet (which should REALLY give other rivals pause, from Apple to RIM to Nokia, the Android army is still not fully deployed haha).

Thus, expect yes significant market share growth through end of 2010. They are currently running about 22-23%, I think they'll hit easily 25% by end of year, could be nearing 30%. There is no way RIM or Apple can catch Android (this year). The only two things that can slow down Android - likely more in 2011 than 2010, is Samsung's shift to Bada and perhaps a strong showing by Microsoft in Phone 7, trying to lure SonyEricsson, LG, Motorola etc back from Android to Microsoft..

Samsung is more difficult. I am totally convinced they'll be growing very strong this year, but more by Android than Bada (as they have also signalled). They are coming from a tiny base. We heard finally the numbers that Samsung did sell 2.6 million smartphones in Q1, giving them 5th place ahead of Moto but behind HTC. That needs to grow very strongly to hit their targets for 2010.

But Samsung has a huge installed base of pretty loyal Samsung users on dumbphones, they are the second most profitable dumbphone maker behind Nokia, so they have pretty deep pockets, and can afford to 'subsidise' the shift of their customers from mid-range featurephones to smartphones, if they see that their targets are slipping towards the end of the year. But we have to monitor them, so far the reported numbers are not as strong as they should be. Bada reached 1 million sales so far, that is a good start for a new platform, but they need to do something very similar to Apple's first year iPhone sales in the next 12 months to achieve the Bada targets by end of year. And in some ways, Bada success will eat into Samsung Android success, inevitably there is some internal cannibalization (one way or another).

I do think its a safe bet to say Samsung will pass HTC soon, in Q3 very likely. Will they catch Apple in Q4 (for quarterly sales, not for the full calendar year) is a tall order, but they will at least move closer to Apple by then. Then we get the Spring impacts to Apple which Samsung can capitalize on - flat sales for Q1 and declining sales in Q2 - whereas Samsung gets the same 'Chinese New Year effect' being the second most popular dumbphone of China, so their latest Chinese editions of the Galaxy etc should have a very good Q1 in 2011 as they sell on all 3 Chinese networks. I think it will be probably Q1 of 2011, maybe Q2 when Samsung passes Apple. But the iPhone 4 death grip will hurt Apple more abroad than in the USA, and Samsung are nothing if not competitive. I am sure that in no small way, that under the belt comment by Steve Jobs about the Koreans at Friday's press conference, has only stirred Samsung (and LG) management to redouble their efforts to pass Apple soon.. It will be an interesting time, but yes, Samsung's goals are far more challenging and less certain to happen. We have to see how they report smartphone unit sales for Q2 to get good guidance.

Thank you both for writing

Tomi Ahonen :-)

Murat

Ok so If marketshare mattered for developers like you say, wouldn't the trend be to use Symbian developing for Nokia Ovi?

If Symbian 'rules the world' but doesn't have the most developers, apps, downloads, profits, positive consumer sentiment/desire what does marketshare really mean here, how do you see Symbian becoming dominant? I'm just trying to understand your analysis and statements.


Also:

"While we are on Samsung, the first Bada phone, the Wave has passed 1 million unit sales. Thats pretty solid for approximately one quarter worldwide. Its nowhere near Apple's iPhone 4 selling 1.7 million units in a couple of days, but remember, thats not the right comparison. The comparison is to the original launch, first phone on a new operating system. So the right comparison is to the original iPhone 2G launch of 2007. And 1 million Waves compare rather well in that context"

The Wave is across multiple operators right now, the original iPhone 2G was pretty much exclusive not sure if that is a correct comparison. Agree?

em

@Murat

The current "mindshare" is on Apple, but if someone is seriously thinking applications for smartphones,
I suppose the trend is turning towards Symbian and Android. Developers are slowly finding out that Symbian has a huge installed base of devices out there and Android is growing fast.

And with Symbian it is possible to use any App Store out there, I guess there are hundreds of them already. If Nokia Ovi terms are not good for you, go and set up your own appstore or use some other store available, like Getjar.

Samsung has a huge distribution chain and lot of operator contacts. Of course, Samsung will use its advantages. Apple had no distribution chain for phones and it started slowly. That was Apple's own decision to start with only one operator, they could have started with many.

Murat

@em

I work with freelance developers and major global brands, financial institutions, agencies - none are interested in developing for Symbian, in fact it's not only below iPhone and Android in priority but Blackberry too. So I find it hard to believe the trend turning towards Symbian. Android is another story of course but that's not what I'm addressing here, it's about how Symbian is going to become a dominant platform and rule things, which it isn't today even though its marketshare is huge.

Sorry I missed your point with Samsung, how does that relate to the original statement comparing the Wave to iPhone 2G?

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