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« So What To Expect of the Apple iPad? A fish or a bird? | Main | Final 2009 mobile phone market numbers as all have reported: we have big news »

March 31, 2010

Comments

Dean Bubley

Not really a consumer brand as such, but obviously ARM's processors have an even greater reach than Nokia, given they're in most phones - sometimes more than one processor per device

Romain Criton

Hi Tomi,
You've probably made a typo in the "10B MADE" chapter:
"At the end of the year there will be 4.6 Billion mobile phone subscriptions in active use"
I'm sure you meant "4.6 Billion mobile phones" and not subscriptions...
Also, does the number of subscribers you are reporting include Machine 2 Machine subscriptions as well as "pure data" subscriptions (to connect a laptop via a 3G dongle) ?
Do you know how significant those numbers are ? They probably account for a portion of the gap between total # of subscriptions and total number of handsets.

One last comment: I'm astonished at the very low penetration rate in Japan ! How come that the country that started it all and remained (maybe still remains) for many years at the cutting edge of mobile tech and uses could possibly have such a low penetration rate ??
Any explanation ?

Tomi T Ahonen

Hi Dean and Romain

Thanks for comments.

Dean - good point but yeah, its a component.

Romain - thanks. I corrected the typo, thanks. As to M2M subscriptions, yes they are included in the total subscription count. Its still small potatos. Data cards and dongles run about 50 million units in annual sales. They do help explain the difference but the big part is multiple SIM cards. In Russia, Ukraine etc its very common to have 3 SIM cards for one phone - to save money switching networks depending on who you call or what time it is, or what kind of offer you have for your messages and minutes from any given operator.

On Japan, partly its postpaid (prepaid will boost market growth) and part is 'protectionist' practises in particular delay in allowing MVNOs into the market, the first Japanese MVNO did not launch until 2009. And one factor is that Japan has one of the most 'top heavy' age pyramids of any nation - ie lots of very old people and few kids. That means far slower adoption of phones - for retired people (who already tend to have fixed landlines). Japan was running in the mid-field pack of industrialized countries to the mid 2000s decade, but then the prepaid and MVNO markets did shoot past them. Now even the USA has passed Japan which is 2nd from last ahead only of Canada by subscriber count.

Thank you both for writing

Tomi Ahonen :-)

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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