The mongols are coming

A few years ago I wrote a thought piece called Discontinuity Does it Hurt? In which I outlined how our media and business landscape were about to be massively disrupted by the gales of creative destruction. In that article I wrote

Our recent history has been deeply affected by the increased speed of technological development plus the convergence and proliferation of the audio-visual, mobile, IT and personal computing industries, increased internet and bandwidth penetration, and media choice. These developments have impacted businesses and the marketing community. As a result of these developments, business itself is faced with a tougher job when innovation and flexibility are the markers for competition, rather than efficiency being the fundamental driver of value.

Convergence of these technologies means that businesses are beginning to cannibalise other industries. Take, for instance, mobile phones with cameras. During 2002 there were 18 million camera-embedded mobile phones sold worldwide, a drastic increase from less than 2 million in 2001. The need for growth, coupled with convergence, both forces and enables business to think beyond its own market sector in search of increased revenues and profitability. This scenario is played out against a culture in flux, with different needs and aspirations to those of a generation ago.

In an update to that I think it is worth taking a broader look at our business and media landscape today.

Branson targets BskyB to claw back marketshare

Sir Richard Branson yesterday vowed to do for cable TV, bedevilled for years by poor customer service and unfavourable comparisons with Sky, what he claims to have done for planes, trains and mobile phones. The newly launched Virgin Media said it had BSkyB's chairman, Rupert Murdoch, and his son, James, the company's chief executive, in its sights and would claw back market share by "aggressively" targeting its customer base with superior technology and innovative pricing.

Though I wonder if things like Joost and Jaman are ultimately not more of a threat

Yesterday, we were The Venice Project™. Today, we're Joost™. Tomorrow, we're yours! Imagine having infinite choice, and TV that is truly interactive. TV anywhere, anytime... This is the year. Joost™ is coming

So what is Joost?

Joost™ is a new way of watching TV on the internet, which uses new and established technologies to provide the best of both the internet and TV worlds. We're in the process of making it as TV-like as we can, with programmes, channels and adverts. You can also see some things that we think will enhance the TV experience: searching for programmes and channels, for example, as well as social features like chat. There are many more new features to come!

Virgin media I personally think is a major distraction to the real threat.

And Jaman? well this is what business week had to say

In a business driven mostly by widely released, advertising-fueled blockbusters, Jaman is targeting the huge batch of independent and foreign films, many of which will never be coming to a theater near you.

The service, still in a test phase, will offer movies from around the world and small, independent filmmakers in the U.S. Renting a film will cost $1.99 and buying it will cost $4.99. Jaman uses downloadable player software that runs on either Macintosh computers from Apple or PCs running Microsoft's (MSFT) Windows. Customers can watch downloaded movies either on the computer or on a home entertainment system.

This is the Long Tail in practice

So where did all the great movies go? well onto Jaman stupid.

And the proportion of internet traffic in which video file sharing is estimated to be responsible for ... a whopping 50%

Now lets go back to our familiar analogue world. Emap backs chief as headhunters circle following profit warning

Emap, the consumer magazine and radio group, took the unusual step of publicly backing its chief executive last night amid rumours that headhunters were looking for a replacement for Tom Moloney following a profit warning. 'There is no plan to replace Moloney, and headhunters have not been appointed,' said an Emap spokeswoman. The company was responding to suggestions that several candidates had been sounded out by headhunters in recent days as the share price fell. One executive working for a rival firm said he wasn't interested in moving to Emap after being called by an executive search agency.

Whilst it seems that Levi's is taking legal action against anyone it thinks is infringing its trademark

With its Reign as Denim King Over, Levis Turns to the Courts

Levi Strauss claims that legions of competitors have stolen its signature denim stitches — two intersecting arcs and a cloth label — for their own pockets, slapping them on the seats of high-priced, hip-hugging jeans that have soared in popularity.

So Levi's is becoming a leader in a new arena: lawsuits. The company, once the undisputed king of denim and now a case study in missed opportunities, has emerged as the most litigious in the apparel industry when it comes to trademark infringement lawsuits, firing off nearly 100 against its competitors since 2001. That's far more than General Motors, Walt Disney or Nike, according to an analysis by research firm Thomson West.

Even companies that have painstakingly worked to avoid infringing on Levi's trademarks have found themselves in the company's crosshairs. At Rock & Republic, one of the country's fastest-growing jeans makers, designers intentionally placed a cloth label on the right hand side of a back pocket, not the left, which would violate a Levi's trademark.

Levi's sued anyway, arguing its trademarks forbid placing such a label on a vertical seam of a back-pocket. During a tense, five-hour settlement discussion in San Francisco several weeks ago, the chief executive of Rock and Republic, Michael Ball, upbraided Levi's lawyers for their aggressive tactics.

And mobile try blyk and here

A new company backed by some of the leading names in European technology is setting out to shake up the wireless business with an offer that can't be beat: free phone calls. Called Blyk, it aims to launch in mid-2007 in Britain and then roll out service on the Continent. The catch: To get the service, customers will have to sign up to receive ads on the screens of their handsets.

Why are so many smart people backing a company that has no revenue and doesn't even plan to start operating until next year? If the company's approach proves successful, industry watchers say, it could dramatically affect the mobile phone industry and pose a serious threat to existing operators. "It's going to change the business model for mobile telephony in a big way." says Falk Müller-Veerse, managing partner at Cartagena Capital, a Munich-based boutique investment bank specializing in the mobile phone industry.

Whilst Orange wonders if it will become a commodity in 5 years and Vodafone and Orange merge their 3G operations. which was probably thought as blaspehmey six months ago.

So whatever business you're in, it won't be the same business you're in.... very soon.

Try Tomi's "Y" of Convergence theory