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« Placeless but permanently connected | Main | Stampeded by Mac fanatics, replying to 32 comments on iPod 14% »

July 20, 2006

Comments

UranIdiot

Um, dude... the best, most objective summary of your article I can write, is that you're an idiot. Rarely has such an ad-hominem attack been so justified. Idiot.

Adam

Best joke of the day...hahahahahahahahahaha

BTW get a REAL job and stop making a fool of yourself...

Jim

> The first quarter of 2006...[Apple had a] catastrophic
> earth-shattering crash of 40% drop in sales!

Here's Business Week's analysis of those same figures:

> IPOD ROCKS ON. IPod sales held their own at 8.1 million units
> or 32% more than a year ago ...
>
> "iPod sales held up really well, considering they haven't had
> anything new since October," Wolf said [financial analysist at
> Needham & Co. in New York]

http://yahoo.businessweek.com/technology/content/jul2006/tc20060719_557792.htm

Jim

Riot Nrrrd™

I started to read this article 'til I hit the concocted "14% market share" and then I realized how retarded you are.

So I skipped down to the Comments and found out that everyone else thinks you're retarded, too.

What part of "Just because we may own a phone that can play MP3's doesn't mean we use it instead of our iPods" don't you understand?

As everyone else except you seems to grasp, phones sound crappier and no one wants to chew up their battery life playing MP3's when they need it to make phone calls. The predominant use of phones is to make phone calls and send text messages. When all the phone cameras exceed 3.2 megapixels they will become useful as it's really nice to have a camera "everywhere", especially if you don't want to tote a large(r) camera around wherever you go, just in case there's a good shot opportunity that you would've missed otherwise. (I've got a Nikon CoolPix 5700, and I definitely don't want to take that with me everywhere. I'd rather have a Elph or similar form-factor camera for that type of handy access. If they can put 5 megapixels into a phone, then I wouldn't need the Elph equivalent.) But the bottom line here is, anything that's a phone feature which directly competes for battery life with actual phone use as a telephone is doomed to failure - until someone comes up with a battery/hard drive combination that allows both massive storage and extremely long battery life.

peyote

this article is laughable (especially when you're quoting from past articles that show you predicted something).

as others have said, mobile phone market means nothing if you don't know the features of the phones are being used over others (ipods, cameras). just because phone (a) has sold more then cameras & ipods does not make it the dominate camera & mp3 player in the market, lol. :P

prognasticator wannabe's come out of the woodwork every other qtr predicting the demise & quoting the last time they predicted a failed demise of the ipod only to be scoffed at the following qtr. good luck on this prediction. if there was any reason of a downturn, it would be from saturation or the fact that many are waiting for the widescreen video ipod rumor mills have reported.

Tonio Loewald

I think that the SD memory card, or its successors, will defeat the iPod and the CellPhone. The best data storage/transfer device is use-agnostic. Who wants to load their music collection onto a cellphone if it will be stuck there when, inevitably, the cellphone is obsolete in a year?

Tiny, unpowered 2G+ storage devices which can plug into anything, store anything, and be used for anything, will devour all of these transient technologies. An iPod minus its storage is just a $10 device with a cute UI. A cellphone is just a $20 device with a less cute UI. The value, content, et al is in the storage device.

Musictasty

You're obviously not into music so your premises
seem rather naive.

It's hard to find songs you like - I've been into
this for years and I'm always putting off my music
research. Due to 'sensory saturation" I work to
expand my library of "listenable" songs beyond 800
or so and research takes time, yet I eventually do
it because the payoff is worth it. But forget about shuffling among a hundred or so tracks on my Moto
SLVR when I can shuffle 800 and growing on my iPod.

Mike

Good luck in trying to justify your prediction some months ago that 2006 will be the death of the iPod. While most of the points are covered above regarding battery life, what to do with incoming calls as people done like to be interupted by text messages/calls when listening to music, cost of data transfer (especially when roaming overseas), transferring music from old phone to new, the users recluctance to share a music phone with others compared to an iPod, new iPod release pre-Christmas etc ...all lead to the question as to whether you will rgive tour fortune teller prediction. I rather leave the prections to the markets specialists and the stock market.. BTW, the market reacted very postively to the results. Why would it do that if Apple ipOds were Doomed?

Cameron

The big problem with this argument is that people are not buying phones BECAUSE they play music ... they buy phone because they are phones. Music is just an extra ... often an extra you cannot escape. It is a toy to play with.

Similar to the camera phone, you are now hard pressed to get a decent phone that does not come with the camera built in ... but people don't replace their digital cameras their cell phone -- or avoid buying a camera because the phone does the job ... no. It is just a "cool" feature that came with the phone ... heck take away the camera and music play and sell me the same phone for 1/2 the price -- nope ... can't do it. But I would love it.

You have large sales ... but it is not because of the music player ... it is because of the phone. The markets are different.

Now, do they play ball in the same park ... sometimes. While my #1 concern remains battery life. (Do I listen to music until my phone dies -- or save the battery for the call from the boss??). Having only one device is convenient, which is why the phone/PDA merge was effective - PDAs were used for contact management, scheduling, and simple notes. I don't like the larger size of the phones to fit the screens needed for email and web usage - but they are there for some. The music phone will no doubt hit a similar placement - used due to convenience.

However, the phone can not be all things ... products that try suck. They end up large, clunky, unstable, and difficult to use. The future of the iPod will be capturing those areas where the phones don't work well ... larger capacity drives and screen, small very dedicated devices, and possibly move more towards a smaller tablet/PDA merge for better video playing.

The phones will win the numbers - but by no means is that the death to the iPod ... just as phones have not been the death to digital cameras ... they just can't fit the bill. It becomes just a funky extra.

On top of that ... don't ignore the possibility that there may be other iPod based phones in the pipeline, just so they have a piece of the "convenience" pie.

JPO

I own an iPod shuffle (1GB-love the size and portability). I also own a 3G iPod (30gb). I recently bought a motorola phone that has the ability to play mp3 and take pictures (it's not the iPod phones). YAWN. Never have taken a picture with the phone, and I have no desire to play music on the thing. In order to get music on it I have to pay an extra $30 for a USB data cable (Motorola disabled the bluetooth to PC connection because they want you to connect to their Network to download expensive junk) or connect to their network for high priced junk. No thanks. My phone does what it's supposed to do - make and answer phone calls.

The new phones that integrate email/computer with phone are pretty cool. I believe this is useful. Would you replace your PC with these phones - NO WAY! Let's get real here.

vego

wow you guys are criticle. non english speaking

i thin he brings up good ideas as do all the comments.

the actual reality of the mp3 player/mp3 mobilephone space must ly somewhere in between.

i thin ipod sales growth year over year is a good sign for the ipod.

though i have a work cellphone and a personal cellphone that can, i have never used either to listen to music or to take a picture.

i thin the itunes music store/ ipod is by far the best experience for digital media consumption.

is it possible for the mp3 playing cellphone to eat ipod market share? for sure but it is trully a different thing.

I thin he makes good points or he may be mad that ipods can't answer phone calls and is trying to prick apple's blog watchers into incorporating that functionality sooner especially if he can get enough exposure.?

i thin the ipod is here to stay and even though i am now on my what 7th cellphone since 1999 and 3 of them could play music i have never used my phone for that.

but i thin apple should include that funcionality into their deivces as soon as they feel a more converged device would be both technically and commercialy prudent.

i thin we no longer have any tollerance for divergent opinons. he brings up things to thin about.

i thin liar is a strong word. we all have a way of seeing things and his way is different. don't get upset cause he trys to exlain and prove his point of view. that fear of other opinions harms debate. the more weirder strange and out of the box opinions, the better.

i back your ability to be wrong or even way wrong. you go boy!

Paul Jardine

Tomi, I think the comments to this article should make you realise you've lost this argument.
Take a step back and stop trying to blindly justify your prediction. Take a deep breath, re-examine your logic and give credit where credit's due.
Apple completely dominate the music player market. The only statistics that would disprove that would be something which showed that people's primary reason for buying a music phone was to listen to music (and not to make phone calls!)
Mobile phones can do a lot of things, but their use is typically secondary, i.e. people who take a lot of photos have a digital camera, people who listen to a lot of music have an iPod, people who browse the internet a lot have a laptop.
I use my phone to do many things, but it's not usually my first choice, it's only if I don't have my 'specialist device' with me. It's not even my first choice for voice if I have my laptop and Skype available.
Ask yourself this; How many of the 8.1 million that bought iPods last quarter already have MP3 capable phones? I suspect it's not a single digit percentage...

Chap Harrison

From MacSurfer:

"Apple income jumps 48 percent" ( Inside Bay Area )
"Apple bucks Wall Street skepticism" ( New York Times )
"Demise of a Darling: iPod market share crashes to 14% amid management denials" ( Communities Dominate Brands )
"Apple's Macintosh market share soars 16 percent" ( MacCentral )

I was expecting a parody! :-(

Tomi T Ahonen

Dear Piers, Sandeep, BobAB, Bert C, Kevin, Swissfondue, Bela, William (twice), Curious, Jim, Rus, D9, Barney F, Johnny Appleseed, David, MacKeyser, Rue, UranIdiot, Adam, Jim, Riot Nrrd, peyote, Tonio Loewald, Musictasty, Mike, Cameron, JPO, Vego, Paul and Chap

Thank you for writing. As this blog entry has already attracted 33 replies (we usually only get a few at best) - I don't want to try one enormous comment entry reply here.

I will post a reply now to the blogsite, where I will respond to each of you individually next, and post an update/response blog entry and address each of you and your comments so far.

Thank you for writing. We greatly appreciate the time you took to post a comment and we will of course keep them all here and we embrace the dialogue that this medium allows.

Tomi Ahonen :-)

zato

Tomi wrote: "I will post a reply now to the blogsite, where I will respond to each of you individually next, and post an update/response blog entry and address each of you and your comments so far."

Don't bother.

fmaousfoto

Demise of a Darling?? yada yada yada.

Dazza

Did anyone look at Tomi's bio? It turns out he's (shame on me if he's a she) a--wait for it--mobile phone consultant. Imagine!

"I am an author and independent consultant in the emerging areas of next generation wireless, with expertise in the business application, services, partnering and marketing of wireless technologies such as 3G (UMTS, W-CDMA, CDMA2000, IMT2000, EDGE & TD-SCDMA), 2.5G GPRS, W-LAN (Wi-Fi, 802.11), WiMax (802.16), 802.20, as well as 3.5G and 4G, and related wireless technologies including GSM/SMS, WAP and Bluetooth.

I can provide advanced wireless service marketing plan workshops and business case audits for operators/carriers; new service creation workshops; and value chain analysis for content providers and their support such as intellectual property attorneys."

RP

I believe that your penchant for taking numbers that nearly every other business analyst sees as good and slapping a DOOM moniker on them makes for additional hits to your website but that's about it. It got me to read your drivel driven analysis didn't it? I wouldn't call this the most unique way to sell a book but in this sensationalistic sound bite culture it's certainly the most tried and true.

Jim from Davao

How many of the mobile phone/digital music player owners actually use their phones to listen to digital music exclusively? Can you show us the numbers? Actual, real numbers from reliable sources and not from those in your head. Thank you.

Joseph Matt

Communities Dominate Brands is dead. Long live Communitites Dominate Brands.

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    Tomi Ahonen is a bestselling author whose twelve books on mobile have already been referenced in over 100 books by his peers. Rated the most influential expert in mobile by Forbes in December 2011, Tomi speaks regularly at conferences doing about 20 public speakerships annually. With over 250 public speaking engagements, Tomi been seen by a cumulative audience of over 100,000 people on all six inhabited continents. The former Nokia executive has run a consulting practise on digital convergence, interactive media, engagement marketing, high tech and next generation mobile. Tomi is currently based out of Hong Kong but supports Fortune 500 sized companies across the globe. His reference client list includes Axiata, Bank of America, BBC, BNP Paribas, China Mobile, Emap, Ericsson, Google, Hewlett-Packard, HSBC, IBM, Intel, LG, MTS, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Ogilvy, Orange, RIM, Sanomamedia, Telenor, TeliaSonera, Three, Tigo, Vodafone, etc. To see his full bio and his books, visit www.tomiahonen.com Tomi Ahonen lectures at Oxford University's short courses on next generation mobile and digital convergence. Follow him on Twitter as @tomiahonen. Tomi also has a Facebook and Linked In page under his own name. He is available for consulting, speaking engagements and as expert witness, please write to tomi (at) tomiahonen (dot) com

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